Why current concerns around EVs are dumb

I don't care to argue if you think that EVs are larger pollutants or more expensive to operate compared to ICE vehicles. While I have found substantial holes in most such arguments, ultimately... it doesn't matter.

Here is thing; EVs are pushing the boundaries of battery tech and will continue to do so for decades. And THAT is why you should support the industry. Because any claims that they are more expensive or bigger polluters will disappear over time.

In the past few months alone we're already beyond the point where the only big battery news I hear is coming from universities or other more research oriented facility. Lately there is a lot of news of new battery types coming directly from automotive manufacturers. And that means within a few years we will start seeing that crop in consumer vehicles.

But that is just the beginning. And for 2 reasons; legislation and preservation. On top of that, I'm unconcerned about divergent technologies for the simple reason of how EV chargers have been designed; hint, what most people refer to as the charger is NOT the charger and that is CRUCIALLY important.

So, legislation and preservation go hand in hand. Firstly, legislation is slowly FORCING auto makers to make more and more EVs unless they are willing to exit large markets like the EU. And, unsurprisingly, many are unwilling to do that. But preservation is the other side of this. Current battery chemistries and supply chains make it very difficult to make a mass market car AND make a profit. Especially since those legislated limits are going to start forcing them to find a way to sell EVs to the lower end of the market. 

Preservation then ends up being about 2 things; making the process more affordable and NOT making prices a race to the bottom when they get there. I watched a video recently that claimed that the real issue facing climate change is profitability. 

And I have very little doubt that this is a major motivator for many companies. For auto makers though, the biggest contender for their profits are the batteries. The size and cost at the moment leave no real room for margins. But, as the energy density goes up and chemistries diversify we'll be left with increasingly lighter, smaller and cheaper batteries. And the scale of these changes just in what we're already seeing on the horizon is impressive.

The diversification of battery chemistries is also going to lead to very different battery characteristics (faster charging, vs higher density, vs longer life, etc...) and that is going to slow the race to the bottom as each manufacturer will likely standardize around a different tech and try to sell the consumers on the particular benefits of their batteries over just purely fighting for market by bringing prices down. 

Now, you may ask; but doesn't a lot of different battery types mean that our charging infrastructure needs to be thrown out? And the answer is... most likely not. What we tend to call "chargers" when we talk of EV's are not actually chargers at all. They are really just fancy outlets. The actual charger is what they plug into. The charger is in the car itself. That plug on your wall or at the charge spot is just a smart outlet. It negotiates with the charger in the car to determine which how fast it can safely receive electricity from the plug.

So, newer tech shouldn't mean a need to throw out any of these chargers. Though, many of them may become obsolete over time by way of being too slow to charge a car in any meaningful timeframe. Or may not work with your car if they support a different connector like CCS vs NACS.

Over time I expect level 3 or perhaps some theoretical level 4 to eventually take over. Or if the density gets high enough, perhaps even just stations where you swap batteries instead of charging.

Where things get problem is actually those super fast chargers. They present a rather high bursty load to the grid. And the profitability of grid based renewables kind of sucks. Though, now that they are generally cheaper than polluting forms, I think that there is a legislation based solution; establishing a minimum charge at a certain place in the energy supply chain. Right now, it is a race to the bottom. But, if the bottom were fixed, then any efficiencies you make become profit. You may need to learn to compete on other areas like volume, delivery speed, etc... but it would provide incentives for companies to switch production to renewable sources. And increasing those sources should also help with increased demand in the grid. But, that is just a suggestion backed by some speculation on my part.