Recycling, EVs and forward thinking tech

One of the common arguments about any new product is that it isn't better than what it would replace. Either generally, or in some other facet. But, this can be the worst measure in existence by which to measure something.

For instance, one can say that EVs are worse than ICE vehicles because ICE vehicles have longer range. However, if you look at the range ICE vehicles had when they were at a similar stage of development, it is a drastically different story. The Ford Model T for example, which was nowhere near the first car, had a range of just 20-40 miles. This is comparable to the electric range on my PHEV and even well below first gen Nissan Leaf and Tesla vehicles.

What should be important is whether or not there exists a meaningful path to improvement and whether or not the industry is actually moving in that direction.

Recycling is a good example of the problems. Modern recycling is largely predicated around a situation which is no longer valid. Namely, that China will take all of our plastics and cardboard. And Western society appears to be resistant to changes countries like Japan have taken in ensuring that waste put into the recycling is likely to be recycled and recycled efficiently.

With recycling, the problem isn't necessarily that there is no path forward. But, more that is seems unfeasible in most of the world at present. The compounding issue is that the only alternative we have is to not recycle at all. Which is notably worse.

However, if the situation with EVs were similar to the situation with recycling, then these arguments against it would be well founded. But they aren't similar.

EVs are advancing on ALL fronts. They are becoming increasingly more environmentally friendly, they are becoming more efficient and they are even becoming increasingly cheaper. In fact, in certain market segments they are already approaching parity in terms of profitability for automotive manufacturers. This isn't impressive in and of itself. What is impressive is how quickly we are reaching these achievements given how new this technology still is (relatively speaking of course).

The same can be said of efforts to transition off of fossil fuels for grids. We aren't there yet. But, the rate at which we are approaching it is remarkable. The potential is definitely there, and there isn't any realistic reason why we cannot achieve goals to completely replace fossil fuels in this industry. 

So, if your argument is "I can't afford an EV so I will buy an ICE vehicle", then all the power to you. I don't think that any rational person expects people to go bankrupt over these decisions. Though, I would honestly question affordability given the direction gasoline prices are headed. But, if your argument is "I won't buy an EV because I refuse to support a less efficient technology", then you're missing the point.

And, I think there is a common thread here with any forward looking opportunity. You can't necessarily look at it for what it is today. You need to see it for what it could be and evaluate if it is reasonable to see it getting there.

I think that on the topic of recycling, we're not making progress and need to seek out a better path. But, on things like EVs and renewable energy the path we're on is definitely viable and will quickly overtake the legacy industries.