Post Election Thoughts

Well, my broader prediction on how the election would pan out was correct. The outcome is disappointing. Not because the Liberals are back in a minority position. But rather because none of the smaller changes I had either predicted or hoped for came to fruition. 

As I've said previously, it irks me that this election even happened. There was no reason for it. The Liberals didn't really have any big ticket items they were actively pushing for which they couldn't have gotten through by working with other parties. As I also said before; this was a rare, functional, minority government.

And that may explain the outcome. No one felt that the election was needed, so voters largely didn't change their stripes on election day.

Frankly, I would have loved to see BOTH the Conservatives AND Liberals lose a decent chunks of seats. The Liberals deserve the losses for calling this election. It is a bit of a shame that they get to walk away unscathed. Given the poor timing and the costs to the tax payers it really just hurts that there won't be much of a reckoning internally in the party given the lack of any serious blow to their position.

With the Conservatives it would have been nice to see a loss, simply because it would have made sense. O'Toole switched sides on the gun topic, has gone almost 180 on climate change and really leaned toward the center on a lot of topics. If voters really cared about the things that they claimed to care about then they should have lost substantial support in Western Canada. And while the shift should have won them some votes in the East, it takes time to build trust and it ultimately should have resulted in a net loss, but it didn't. In fact, the shift really seems to have had no tangible effect at all. The map looks pretty much the same. 

The most interesting races were basically those where MPs had switched sides or been ousted by their parties. There were maybe a small handful of other interesting races and only a small number of those delivered any sort of upset result.

And, as with the Liberals, the Conservative outcome will either mean nothing learned, or that the focus will be on the wrong things. They'll likely focus on either the leadership, or at the very least just steer things more back toward the right leaning side of the spectrum. 

The NDP on the other hand. It would have been nice to see them pick up more seats. Whatever else you may want to say about them, they have been pretty consistent. And their goals also tend to be more aligned with the Liberals than with other parties making them a sensible choice for people who may have looked away from the Liberals. 

I also lament that the PPC didn't pose any real threat to the Conservatives. No part of me wants the PPC in power. But, if they could have taken 5-10 seats in Alberta it would have sent a strong message to the Conservatives which may have opened the doors to voting reforms. 

So, while I may have been right about the general makeup of the new government, it still somehow managed to end up being one of the less desirable outcomes. Honestly, I think my ideal outcome would have been the Conservatives winning the most seats, but still having government formed without them at the head. 

Also, I find myself in one the rarer circumstances where I would tend to side with those calling for the PM to step down. Even had the Liberals won a majority, there was no reason for this election. That there was no merit AND that it failed to return any strategic value means that Trudeau failed both the Canadian people and his party.

Conversely, I don't feel there is any reason for O'Toole or Singh to step aside. While O'Toole may have failed to seize a victory, he hasn't been in the position long, it wasn't a regularly scheduled election and it wasn't triggered by his actions. All the outcome says is that there was likely no path this time around to a Conservative win. I believe O'Toole did a generally good job on the campaign trail. And I believe that he has sown the seeds of doubt in many Liberal voters, but that those efforts would be spoiled if he were to be replaced and the brand and messaging of the party were to change again.

Singh of course is the only one who can be considered a winner here. While they may not have made huge gains, they are nonetheless the biggest winners of the election. If the best O'Toole could manage was to maintain their rough seat count, then it should be seen as a massive win that the NDP did better than that. I mean, the NDP is not considered a viable party in many ridings. 

That being said... I don't really expect any of the leaders to be replaced. Trudeau is, unfortunately, very much a brand. He will need more to prove his brand has failed than this so I really don't see the Liberals replacing him. Though, it would have been nice to maybe see Freeland replace him.

O'Toole I'm going to wager is safe simply based on the costs of leadership bets in that party and how recent the last one was. I doubt anyone has the appetite for that again. 

And Singh, well, he is still the most successful NDP leader aside from Jack Layton.