Election Predictions

Well, the polling is done. But, I suspect it suffers from the same flaws as it did the last time around. The race may make it look like I dead heat between the Liberals and Conservatives. But, I suspect that the Liberals will win a minority with a safe lead over the Conservatives. I also suspect that both parties will lose seats compared to last year. And I suspect the Greens will lose seats as well.

Most seats lost will be to the NDP. But, I suspect that maybe a small number of Conservative seats will be lost in Alberta to the PPC.

As for why this is my prediction. In the last election, the Conservatives had a bigger share of the popular vote compared to the Liberals. But, they lost by a wide margin because of the lopsided support that the Conservatives had in Western Canada. And, while I certainly suspect that many in the West may have switched allegiance, I just don't see if having changed enough to alter that makeup of their support base.

In short, while the Conservatives likely lost some support and in the West and gain some more elsewhere. But, the support base is likely still heavily anchored in the prairies. So, even if the Conservatives again eke out a lead in the popular vote, they are unlikely to have widespread enough backing to turn that into a win. The Conservatives, in my opinion at least, need a clear lead of 5+% to win a minority and even more to win a majority. But, we shall see how that plays out tonight.

So yeah, that spread in popularity will likely lead to a closer race. Just not necessarily one which will change the fortunes for the Conservatives.

The party which has performed the best during the pandemic has been the NDP. And, I think that shows in their support numbers. It seems pretty clear that they will pick up more seats than in the prior election. In fact, it actually seems possible (though the odds are incredibly long) that the NDP could even form a minority government. This would require the polls to be off by quite a bit. But, just the fact that it isn't totally outside of the realm of possibility says a lot.

The Greens have had a hard year. Way too much in-fighting. It really seems like political aspirations have gotten in the way. And this has all really hurt the party. It seems possible that they could actually win 0 seats this time around.

The Bloc will do what the Bloc does. And the PPC may actually win a few seats as well. Though, that seems mostly at the expense of the Conservatives. It seems rather hard to believe that anyone who has recently a potential Liberal or NDP voter would swing to the PPC. And while I'm sure it does happen, I sincerely doubt it happens in numbers large enough to matter.

Vote splitting between the Liberals and NDP doesn't seem like a huge deal. If the NDP were in a position where they had no chance of winning seats the argument would make more sense. But, the NDP actually have strong odds of winning seats and voting that way doesn't seem like a senseless waste of votes.

However, mentioning vote splitting does lead to a topic that I hope gets addressed; voting reform. I think we seriously need ranked ballots. And, I think that if the PPC cannibalize enough Conservative seats, but the Liberals still win, that we might actually see it happen. Basically, opposition parties and Provincial governments aren't going to support vote reformation unless they see the value in it to them. And parties like the PPC pose an existential threat which could be the catalyst to showing them the value.

It is a double edged blade though. It can also allow other upstarts which aren't splinter factions with a built in base to gain momentum and it eliminates quibbling over vote splitting. 

The PPC seems like the right catalyst because they could provide a template. They are effectively a more extreme, splinter faction of the current Conservative government. The party was created by one of the early candidates for the head of the Conservative party. As such, the PPC has a built of a built-in support base. And if they can take seats from the Conservative party that might encourage other MPs to break off and start their own parties as well.

The PPC however, is only likely to win support in places where the Conservative would have won if the PPC didn't exist. After all, they are just a more hard right-leaning Conservative party. These people's votes were NEVER going to go to the Liberals or NDP or anything group like that. And, likewise, no one on the other end of the spectrum is going to put this party high up on their ballots. 

So, if the PPC won say, 35% in a region and the Conservatives won 25% in that region. Neither would have enough to win outright on the first round ballots. With 60% of the vote going to right leaning parties you can basically bet that the bottom ranking parties are all left or center leaning. Who do you think is more likely to cross the 50% threshold first, after multiple rounds of elimination? Despite the initial lead of 10%, left and center leaning voters will overwhelmingly choose the Conservatives before the PPC. Whereas in the current system, the PPC would simply win.

The Liberals likely support the idea because the same thing would likely play out between them and the NDP. They see the NDP gaining popularity and they would rather a system where they can snatch victory away from the NDP more times than lose it. 

Prior to the PPC, the Conservatives didn't really have a competitor with a national presence that could poach votes from them.