And the Pixel 6 hits the FCC

Not that this is really a surprise at this point any more. But, the Pixel 6 models went through the FCC approval process today, all but confirming my earlier speculation that the late October release rumours were more likely than any of the September ones.

This lines up nicely for an end of October release. Having it pass through today puts it at about 5-6 weeks ahead of the end of October. EXACTLY on schedule with what I proposed based on past releases.

As I said before, this regulatory approval is essential for them to be able to sell the phone in their most important market. There was simply no way they would significantly depart from what they've done in the past on that particular front.

So, now that the regulatory approval is out of the way, I expect that Google is hard at work nailing down their press plans. I suspect that before the end of the week (or early next week at the latest) you'll start seeing your online journalists and other news makers announcing that they've received formal invites to some sort of virtual or in person Google event. If the event is in-person it could come later as they may need some time to nail down the venue. But, expect it sooner rather than later at this point.

The approval is coming soon enough that it could be feasible for pre-orders to open up in mid-October. However, I have no reason to doubt the leaks on that point. 

With that FCC approval, the hardware is pretty much set in stone. And the longer it "sits" the more leaks there will be, and the more chance for their competitors to rain on their parade. So, if anything is off about the launch date prediction, it is that it is earlier rather than later.

But, again, an earlier launch is also unlikely. Google wants to spend on advertising this time around. They want the press on board. They are more likely to get aggressive with their budget than they are with their timelines.

So, I think that the phone itself is likely to be available the last week of October or first week of November. The pre-order date is the one thing which seems potentially malleable. I think the leaks suggest it will come about 2 weeks before the actual launch. If this shifts, I would say it might move to within a week of the launch date. But, I see no reason to doubt the leaks on this one, or that Google would deviate from their old script. Especially not with the FCC approval being "right on time" if that late Oct, early Nov timeline was their target all along.

A later pre-order date might allow them more time to advertise ahead of the official unveiling. But, actually watching the pre-orders sell out is probably as good an advertising mechanism as any. 

In short... timelines on a device launch like this are a complicated ballet. There are things which absolutely have to happen and happen in a particular sequence. And, it really doesn't leave a ton of wiggle room. Is it technically possible to mess with these schedules? Sure. But, I think from the management teams inside at Google that it likely doesn't seem that way. There are a lot of priorities to balance. And sticking to a script that worked in the past or as near as possible is going to be seen as the best way to ensure success. 

So the boring answer is that the strongest predictions happen to be those which say that timelines will basically be in line with what Google usually does.