The Conservative Problem in Canada

I don't think that the Federal and certain Provincial Conservative parties will be around much longer without some sort seismic shift. Specifically, the Alberta UCP party and the Federal Conservatives. But, I do wonder if the same problems plague other parties.

Each parties reckoning came from something different; Climate for the Federal party and COVID-19 for Alberta. But, at the same time, both actually stemmed from the same underlying cause; catering to a hyper-right leaning base, building not only a base around it, but also a party and then attempting a change of stance.

I'm not all that dissimilar in my view on the Liberal's from many Conservative supporters. And so, I genuinely DO hope for a solid change in stance from the one party I see as most likely to take over. Or at least, saw as most likely. And, with Doug Ford and now what has happened to both Jason Kennery and Erin O'Toole, I understand why they are unlikely to change.

In neither the prior Provincial or Federal elections did I vote Liberal. Nor did I vote Conservative. At the Provincial level it was clear that Wynne's Liberal party was blindly catering to what she thought the people wanted, rather than pursuing any rational or defensible plan. What she did with the energy sector in Ontario was just kind of stupid and the last straw for many people. And Doug Ford ended up winning that election cycle.

And he has been mostly the kind of Premiere I expected. Which in turn has shown one potential for electing one party to spite another; they might ACTUALLY do what they promised. Make no mistake, Doug Ford made some ambitious, and largely INSANE promises. And has executed on just about every one. 

Apparently, people were too inept to understand that the Provincial government shouldn't interfere in the operations of private run businesses, or that it might have repercussions. Or that wholesale ripping up contracts would land you in legal hot water. Or that pulling a 180 on numerous policies would lead to basically the whole rest of the world backing out of investments because you're no longer seen as a reliable place to do business.

But, the Federal party the Alberta UCP party show another problem. Their base and even their own membership won't support you if you back down on your batshit crazy path.

I think it is largely accepted that the primary reason why the Liberals retain a minority government despite a scandal laden lead-up to the election was that the Conservatives had basically no policy on Climate Change. 

That same Conservative party recently voted down a measure to simply ACKNOWLEDGE that Climate Change is real.

They weren't even going so far as to, you know, HAVE A PLAN FOR THE THING THAT CRATERED THEIR ELECTION CHANCES. No, instead, they rebel against the party leader for even suggesting the reality of the situation. 

Similarly, in Alberta, Jason Kenney has, for month politicized the ever loving heck out of COVID-19. Even going so far as to suggest that lock downs might somehow be unconstitutional (which, according to all supreme court cases thus far, they ARE NOT). Then, when the situation gets so bad that even HE can't ignore it any more... his own party revolts against him!

This is NOT some fringe topic for voters. Again, this is one of THE most crucial topics facing just about anyone today. In Alberta, the rest of Canada or just about anywhere. Now, the UCP and Conservatives in Alberta are in general in a better spot to begin with than the Federal Conservatives. The Federal party won all but something stupid like 1 riding in Alberta and they have a majority at the Provincial level as well.

But, the problem is things are shifting away from the core values that got them elected not that long ago. Even in Alberta, renewables are becoming an ever increasing element of the economy and displacing oil and gas. And public opinion on COVID-19 swings more in favour with views from other parties.

In short, both at the Provincial and Federal levels you can see support shifting away from these parties due to their positions on these key topics. But, they have 2 fundamental problems in implementing them in that they only have 2 options and both come with massive problems; they can cater to their base or they can change direction.

Going along with their base will result in an ever shrinking base. Support for those ideologies is fading. The rest of the Province and Country increasingly see the sorts of promises which that group is interested in for the lunacy they actually represent. And thanks to Doug Ford (or even Jason Kenney) no one is going to look upon them as empty promises any more. So, they aren't going to shore up tons of support just by being the best available alternative to more left leaning parties. Which is largely how shifts in power transpired in the past.

And we know that isn't going to work as well going forward. Again, the Federal election proved this. I don't think there was EVER an election which more favoured the opposition. And, not only did they NOT win the election, but if you factor out the support in the prairies where sentinment was still strongly against green policies then they actually took a MASSIVE hit. They lost ground just about everywhere else.

At the same point, it almost looks impossible for them to change. I mean, I already wouldn't have trusted the Conservatives had they actually agreed to acknowledge climate change without committing to a specific platform on the topic. To me, NOT having one is just an excuse to claim that Canadians agree with whatever BS they pull out after the fact. And, it isn't like they haven't had an excess of time to develop a plan.

Of course, they do, after years, finally have something. And it is useless. It promises to lower carbon pricing and doesn't really offer anything in the way of a strategy which has been proven effective anywhere. It is about the extent you could expect from a party so willing to turn on its leadership just for trying to salvage that same party.

The extent to which they throw non-Conservatives a bone is that it doesn't scrap Carbon Pricing entirely. In short, so long as climate remains a key topic, their plan is not a viable means to sway votes. But, they can't change their plans without destroying the party and they can't win with the one they've got.

But, to be fair, I can't say I don't like the way that things have gone. The Liberals having a minority forces them to work with other groups. And the current dynamic means that opposition parties can only really operate in good faith. Which in turn is forcing the government to actually work somewhat reasonably as a whole.

I don't know what the next election cycle will bring. But, I seriously hope for another functional minority government. Honestly, I'd even be OK with a minority Conservative government. Mostly because they would be forced to work with other parties. But, I don't truly see that as actually working out. I don't know how they could ever hope to pass even a tenth of what they would promise without a majority.  They are basically on polar opposite ends of the spectrum on most of the key topics for Canadians. So, I doubt the government would ever coalesce let alone survive a confidence vote.