The cost of inaction.

One thing I said early on in this pandemic was that the countries that would "win" the pandemic (and make no mistake, there will be winners and losers) would be the ones which had to shutdown for the shortest period of time and/or did the best at subsidizing during lock downs.

I also stated, crucially, that this did NOT mean that countries which refused to accept the reality and simply stayed open would win. No, those countries took the biggest gambles because, as predicted, none of them in the end were able to afford the loss of life.

There is a third prong I missed in my original assessment; access to vaccines. But, that is really more of a bonus handicap. Every country ultimately needs virtually every other country to eventually pull themselves out of this. We live in a global economy after all.

People may say that countries like Australia and New Zealand are special because they are island nations. So too is Japan. And while Japan may be better off than a lot of other places it is SUBSTANTIALLY behind NZ and Australia. And, much of Japan's success can likely be attributed to better public acceptance of masks and social distancing.

No, it isn't because these places are islands that they are successful. Yes it helps. But, it isn't like they are totally shut down from air or sea travel. The difference is the actions being taken. They are INSANELY strict on quarantine for people entering the country. When they have just a handful of cases, if there is any possibility it is community spread then they lock down that region.

Because of the speed at which action is taken and totality with which it is executed they have managed to keep the number of lock downs to a minimum. As a result, they are broadly enjoying the most "normal" lifestyle of any nations. Their economy is stable while others are at risk. When other nations start opening back up and need supplies, the old businesses may be gone. But in Australia and NZ the businesses are much more likely to have survived. Their economies are going to explode. There will be huge demand, and many larger nations won't be able to deliver.

And why is NOT shutting down not an option? Health care. The death rate from COVID-19 is not the extremely high. But it is more than high enough. And worse than that, the death rate rapidly gets out of hand when people can't receive the care they need because hospitals are backed up. And that is STILL just talking about direct COVID deaths. It doesn't include indirect deaths such as people dying from other illness and injury who also can't get potentially life saving treatment due to the system being backed up.

At the peak of the first wave in Italy the morbidity rate was over 10% for COVID-19 alone. And the virus is so efficient that left unchecked virtually everyone will contract it. You name a country which can afford to lose 10% of its population and I'll know you're a liar. THAT is why even Republican strongholds like Texas caved and imposed restrictions at the height of things.