Re-opening

Here in North America the vaccination pace is behind a number of other nations. While that is more so the case in Canada than in the US, the fact remains, vaccinations are not far enough along yet.

So, when I heard that Texas and Missouri were basically dropping all restrictions I could only think it a very bad idea.

We are at the point where a betting person might start taking odds that now is the right time to open up. But, those would still be long odds.

There are a few things to consider here; firstly case rates aren't at record lows and they aren't dropping. Second, more contagious variants are taking over. And third, even with the possibility of a vaccine for all Americans by the end of May, that is a long time for the virus to wreak havok.

We are only at the beginning of March now, the end of May is basically 3 months away. And, the vaccines can take up to two weeks to provide their full protection. And that full protection is just the full protection granted by a single dose. So, still not the "full" protection.

If restrictions are raised and people just try and go back to normal, those states will likely be back on full lock down in a month. If people are more tentative, it may be delayed up to 6-8 weeks. But, the odds of a critical relapse are high.

Where we are, I think it makes sense to relax some restrictions, providing the highest risk are vaccinated and hospitals are not overwhelmed. Going forward, application of restrictions should be applied based on hospitalization rates above all else, factoring in rate of spread. What this might look like is still requiring masks, and setting occupancy limits.

I frankly don't get the hesitancy over masks. They are an easy, harmless thing which drastically reduces the spread in most environments. Tossing all else out, and keeping that one restriction would shorten those odds a lot. Not enough to make it a solid bet. But, enough to make it a reasonable risk.

On the topic of spreading out the 2 shot doses further. I think this makes sense. There are 2 reasons for this. Firstly, the first dose provides reasonable protection rates and significantly reduces hospitalizations and deaths. And that last metric is really the big things driving lock downs. After that, it is worth noting that production is ramping up AND more vaccines are being approved. Many who get the first shot ahead of schedule may still be able to get a second shot on schedule.

And lastly, concerns over delaying the second shot are slightly ridiculous. While I can understand that the manufacturer wouldn't recommend it as they won't be able to guarantee effectiveness rates, the fact is, it is almost impossible that it would make effectiveness worse than a single shot alone and we are already talking about the potential need for boosters to deal with variants which are quickly becoming the dominant strain.

Put another way, by the time a lot of people are due for their second the shot, the original strain may be more of a footnote anyway. While it would be nice to reach herd immunity, using the originally approved two shot vaccines, what the variants should have shown is that if you can't supply and inject everyone in a very short time frame that becomes a fairy tale. A new strain will take over.

I would place higher odds that 2 months from now the major discussion becomes whether or not we skip the second dose entirely, distribute any extras globally and focus on a booster.