Why are COVID-19 cases dropping?

I'll start by saying that I agree with medical professionals; the truth isn't fully known, and it is likely a combination of factors.

BUT. I think there is a major contributing factor which is being overlooked. While this virus is very good at spreading in the community, every time I've looked at the stats, it isn't just that majority of deaths are in institutions like long term facilities, but also that most cases in general are there as well. And I'm seeing signs that this is changing.

And where are vaccination efforts focused? The same places.

This means that not only is the rate of people having been previously exposed to the virus highest in such places. But, they also have the highest rates of vaccination based immunity.

I think this is a mixed blessing if correct. Firstly, I posited that the primary factor in being able to lift restrictions would be, above all else, reducing the stress on the health care system. And, if this is a major cause behind the downward trend, then that is a good sign that even if case counts rise, that institutional cases will resist that upward trend which in turn will help prevent a rapid resurgence in hospitalizations.

The other side of this would be that the cases aren't going down nearly fast enough or far enough and politicians are getting over confident. While this may be a sign that the most at risk are now among the best protected, with the institutional case rates dropping it means that the numbers we're seeing are increasingly in the general population. And remember, this disease spreads exponentially. Which means that without more widespread immunity in the broader community, this could explode again and overwhelm the health care system, which has not yet fully recovered from the past wave.

And, while the rate of serious infections is much lower in other ages and groups, they are not immune to hospitalization. Nor are the rates so low that we could allow unchecked, exponential spread in the community.

We *might* get lucky. Basically, we will hit a point where rising cases will be cancelled out by vaccination efforts before the influx of patients is too great. I'm not convinced we're there yet. But, we're definitely at the point where those playing long odds could be considered not insane for thinking it worth rolling the dice.

As a politician you want to make that bet. The one thing I said from the beginning is that the countries (or region within countries) which are able to impose the shortest overall lock downs will emerge from this fastest and likely cannibalize economies of longer suffering regions. But you want to get it right. Because getting it wrong means relapsing into more restrictions or losses of life which compromise any potential gains.