And, feeling good to maybe be right for once.

I rarely make predictions of a positive nature. They rarely have much value to justifying spending the effort to make them. So usually, when I predict something will happen, it is something I think is bad.

Back at the beginning of the pandemic everything was centered around how things would return to normal when we got a vaccine. To which I started with some negatives. I pointed out that simply producing an approved vaccine is just the first step. You actually need to get those vaccines into people on a large scale before there can be any impact. And our existing mass vaccination campaigns are things like measles where most people today get vaccinated before a certain age meaning very few people actually need the vaccine at any given moment.

But, then the vaccines came, and the tone shifted and people started saying that we wouldn't see a return to normal until maybe the end of 2021 or later.

And this is where I made one of my rare positive predictions. And listening to some health officials lately, it sounds like I may be on the right track.

Basically, what I said was this; we're past the point where the only casualties are directly COVID related. Job losses, mental health and other societal problems are slowly creeping up. And these ARE important factors too. They just aren't AS important as getting the pandemic under control. 

But, getting the pandemic under control doesn't necessarily mean attaining "herd immunity". What really makes dealing with the pandemic important is hospital capacity. And, fortunately, there is an easy solution; vaccinate the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. There will still be deaths and hospitalizations in other age groups. But, then the same could be said of any virus. We don't shut the economy down simply because there is a threat to human life. Such threats are ever present.

Once we get the at risk communities vaccinated, what will happen is that even if the rate of infection rises, the hospitalization rate should decline, and once it is clear that the health care system is no longer over burdened the rate of community spread won't be as big of a factor.

Not to mention, by the time we get that at risk community vaccinated we should also be far enough along in the vaccine campaign that supply is less of a risk.

If I were to make a prediction on timelines it would look something like this; once the 60+ age group and other high risk groups are vaccinated it will take about a month for the cases to come down and stay down at a level far enough to say with certainty that we're in the clear. Large scale events and visits to long term care homes may need a few more months and a higher levels of public vaccination. But, I expect most businesses would be able to re-open with minimal restrictions (mask and perhaps minor occupancy limits) within a month of reaching that point.

Here in Ontario, I would guess we're 1-2 months away from that level of vaccination, so 2-3 months until most restrictions are gone for good. Meanwhile, we probably won't be at herd immunity until well into 2022. I don't doubt that we will have enough vaccine by fall. But, since there is no enforcement of it there will be some who will drag their feet on the matter.