Will there be future class action lawsuits over COVID-19 vaccines? Unlikely.

 I saw a post/meme/whatever on Facebook today stating that 20 years from now we will be hearing about class action lawsuits for those who took the 2020-2021 COVID-19 vaccine.

I'm not sure if it is meant as a joke, or if it is serious. But, it is a point worth talking about.

Firstly, we need to understand why these lawsuits happen. And that typically boils down to two things; damages and negligence. In short, there needs to be some measurable damage caused and some indication that the company knew, or should have known about the impact and was either lied in to regulating agencies or did something fishy in the distribution/marketing of the product.

Next, we need to understand if this would apply to a vaccine. I'm not aware of any, though I'm sure some cases exist somewhere. But, it generally seems unlikely that this would happen in the case of a vaccine.

Vaccines are expensive and complicated to manufacture, produce, test and get approved. There really aren't any small-fry makers seriously in contention here, unless they are state backed operations.

Secondly, vaccines don't contain conventional drugs or active ingredients. They aren't there to address symptoms after all, they are there to provoke an immune response. 

So, perhaps the only thing about the whole thing which will sound shady is the following; this provides a lot of plausible deniability. It is HIGHLY unlikely a vaccine manufacturer could be accused of negligence unless they lied about the trial data. The only novel ingredient will be the one which provokes the immune response which will be specific to whatever they are vaccinating against. So, there won't be much in the way of competing/historical data for them to be negligent about.

On the other hand though... the active ingredient in a vaccine isn't normally all that "active". By which I mean it isn't typically a chemical compound so much as relatively inert organic material.

Secondly... damages in a immunization would be... weird. We only tend to inoculate against highly contagious diseases which have a high rate of either serious complication or death. Virtually all side effects of any vaccine which makes through even phase 2 of a trial are already much more unlikely to cause a severe reaction.

So what you suffer a severe reaction? Well, firstly, you would need to prove that the vaccine was actually the cause. And, people are quick to blame vaccines and most times they are simply wrong. And proving the link, even if the vaccine were the cause would be tough unless many people came down with the same symptoms.

But, are the damages even relevant? The purpose of a mass vaccination campaign is to stop the spread of a highly contagious virus. Most severe vaccine side effects will be both less likely and less impactful compared to the risk of what it protected you from. In short, it would be like exchanging the risk of being stabbed by a needle with the certainty of being shot. Both can kill or cause substantial injury. But, one is just a risk AND much less likely to cause lasting harm and the other is guaranteed to do some damage.

So, even if the needle risk materializes AND causes a serious reaction can you still say that you suffered damages if you obtained the promised protections?

Legally, I'm unsure of the implications.

But, damages alone would not be enough anyway. You would also need to prove wrongdoing on the part of the vaccine manufacturer. They would either need to have knowingly lied about the benefits conferred or known of and not disclosed the potential side effects.

While the timeline of the COVID-19 vaccines is much contracted, that doesn't mean that there is less oversight. In fact, the number of eyes and the amount of scrutiny over these vaccines is likely greater than any treatment has ever received.

The notion that a vaccine manufacturer would be in a place where they could be held liable for future complications just seems unlikely.