Alberta's COVID approach is lunacy

 Testing out Alberta's theory while transmission was low might have made sense. But, Alberta is now putting out roughly the same number of cases daily as Ontario. A Province with 4x the population. And that not to say that they have a similar rate of infection. It is to say that the rate of infection is 4x higher.

Their defence? The evidence doesn't show that community transmission is happening in businesses. That would be a fine if it weren't for 2 glaring problems: they haven't been able to safely contact trace for months in Alberta and, there is absolutely no evidence that the style of lock down they have opted for can work.

So, firstly, saying that the data doesn't say that these places are where transmissions are happening is either wilfully negligent, or a flat out lie. They DON'T KNOW where the transmissions is actually occurring and haven't known for weeks to months. They certainly haven't known for any of the days since the daily cases broken 1k/day. Which in turn means that they know NOTHING.

Secondly, I'm not aware of any region, anywhere which has tested this sort of restrictions where private gatherings are restricted but most public spaces remain open. And that is a HUGE problem.

As I said, experimenting with what the data tells you is fine so long as you have reason to believe that the data is good and if the experiment fails, you still have capacity in the healthcare system. Unfortunately, the Alberta healthcare system IS ALREADY at capacity. So, now is not the time to gamble on untested approaches.

And, there is another problem. It doesn't matter if transmission isn't happening in these environments. It matters how people respond to the measures. Again, we know roughly what happens when there is a broader, enforced lock down. We know that people still break them, and transmission and outbreaks still happen. But, at low enough rates to bring the cases down. 

Anecdotal evidence thus far has shown that people are reacting to the lukewarm restrictions with lukewarm adoption. Churches have tried to sue to remain open, ever growing protests are taking place, and I haven't really read anything which implies that the average person there is really taking this seriously. They don't see the governments actions are serious, so why should they take it seriously?

Who knows? Maybe after 2 weeks the numbers will taper off or even come back down. In my opinion, it is a gamble though. And I don't think it will pay off. Firstly, the case counts are still growing daily. And while it is true that the incubation period can be as much as 10-14 days, that does NOT mean that 100% of the cases being reported now represent people infected before the restrictions.

In fact, the data elsewhere seems to indicate that probably as little 3-5 days into restrictions rate of growth slows and in as little as a week infections actually start to drop. This is because while the incubation period CAN be 10-14 days (or even longer) the AVERAGE incubation is nowhere near that long. Early estimates put an average at just 5.2 days. Since we're well past the average and quickly approaching 14 days, almost all cases recorded at the moment are cases contracted SINCE the restrictions went into place. Only SOME, and at this point a very smaller number at that, are from prior to the restrictions.

In short, restrictions should have VERY tangible effects in as little 3-7 days. The full impacts may not be known for closer to 2 weeks or more. But, you should know earlier on than that whether or not the measures are having enough of an impact.

THEY. ARE. NOT.