Well, I was wrong!

I know that the vote counting isn't over yet. And it still seems quite likely that Biden will win. But, I was really more predicting a bigger win than this. Not simply that Biden would win.

Frankly, I also expected the Senate to flip, and it doesn't look like that will happen. Though, the gap may end up a smaller one.

Maybe we will know why I was wrong after everything is said and done. Whether I was just flat out wrong, or something like Republicans voting in great proportions can explain it.

I offered up a possible reason before; if the election is rigged, it is rigged in the President's favour. And no, I don't mean to imply that Trump cheated. Rather, as I said before, no one has a bigger Platform than the President. The office itself is a free PR machine bigger than anyone could pay for.

Another possible explanation is that the polls in Biden's favour before the election worked against him, lowering turnout among his supporters. While, contrarily, this and the threat of the flood of mail in ballots favouring Biden could have spurred Trump supporters on.

But, I'm not trying to make excuses. I was wrong. And Trump may still win.

Also, while the margins in some states are impressively low, I don't think recounts will change anything. Nor do I think the Supreme Court will have a tangible impact on voting.

Firstly, recounts almost always change the final vote. But, don't change the outcomes. This is because there are almost always some errors uncovered. But they are typically in the single or double digits with the occasional one dipping into the low triple digits. 

And this makes a lot of sense. Firstly, these things are simple, heavily scrutinized, and errors are likely to be evenly distributed anyway. So, in what is largely a 2 horse race, even if a large number of ballots, say 20K had mistakes in the counts, roughly 10k of the mistakes would go to one candidate and 10k to the other. And, in the end, the result is a VERY low number of total results actually switching from side to another.

A discrepancy large enough to unseat a winner would require a LUDICROUSLY small gap, or more likely, some sort of fraud perpetrated in the votes. But, with the checks in place, that just seems unlikely to have happened in any substantial volume.

And the court challenges are unlikely to succeed for the simple reason that even a Supreme Court heavily in the pocket of the President would likely be unwilling to put too much pressure on states unless it is clear that something truly underhanded is taking place. The US is an assemblage of states. And as with Canada or most large countries, the individual regions remain a part of the whole voluntarily. And the value to the whole is significant. And while the reverse is true as well, the sentiment of the State is easier to offend and the value to the whole often too great to risk.

In short, it isn't really the decision of the Supreme Court to make. And, the State could always draft new laws forcing their electoral college voters to vote how they see fit anyway. It is a largely empty threat with many constitutional barriers in the way. 

The Supreme Court wouldn't want to act in a questionable and clearly partisan fashion. Especially if it could risk the stability of the country. 

So, wherever the results land. They are likely to stay.