Trump knows he is likely to lose

Preamble: The following is nothing more than my personal opinion and thoughts.

I wouldn't think that this should need to be said; but Trump seems well aware that the odds are stacked against him. And I will also state another thing which should not need to be said; If the election is rigged, it is rigged in his favour. And so, that will not be a contributing factor in his defeat.

Now, I know, I could wait some hours to days to know the outcome of the election (as today is election day), but that would ruin the point of this post. Which is of course to make a prediction and to point out what should be, but isn't, obvious to everyone; that Trump is in real danger of losing and doing so legitimately.

I know Trump frames it otherwise, and that many of his supporters agree with his view. But, Trump's claims and actions are themselves part of the proof.

You see, the person and party with the most power to control/influence an election is the person and party in power. And Trump and Republicans are the ones filling those spots. The claims that "if Trump lost an election would only be because it were rigged" are ludicrous. No one has a bigger platform than the President. And he and Republicans hold more power at present than Democrats, as all but proven by the speedy confirmation of a new Supreme Court Justice in the weeks leading up to an election.

You can also see the power of the President's platform as a PR machine for the man holding the position clearly in the COVID response. It should be clear to almost anyone who is objective and looking at the science and statistics that the COVID-19 response in the US is among the worst in the world. The US is performing more poorly countries that lack basic health care. And that is damning. And yet... far more people than should, support Trump and agree with his version of the events, even on COVID-19.

If anything, all elections for a second term are rigged in favour of the person currently in office. No opponent can rival their platform and ability to control messaging. The position is, in itself, deified for many voters. And that has never been true than with Trump who a large contingent believe was delivered office by God himself. And as a person familiar with Roman history... well, maybe that is a post for another time.

But, that Supreme Court nomination? Why? If Trump were so assured of his win, there would be no need to rush filling that seat. This is actually the singularly most damning piece of evidence there is of the Republican forecast on the election. 

It is CLEARLY. EXACTLY. THE. SAME. as when Merrick Garland was blocked by Republicans. BUT WORSE. Nearing the end of Obama's term, there were months, almost a full year before the election. Almost 25% of Obama's term remaining. Ginsburg on the other hand died with just WEEKS before an election. 

And let's not pretend. Republicans KNEW this would look damning and did it ANYWAY.

Why does that matter? Republicans have done many knowingly damning things while Trump was in power. And true though that may be, most of those weren't things which were as dependent upon re-election. Primarily because most other things were not necessarily as time sensitive, nor so near the end of the President's term. 

However, this makes it all the more damning is knowing this, and knowing the timing of the election. Any party feeling even moderately optimistic about their chances would have chosen to leave it until after the election. They likely would have bragged about how much more virtuous they were in doing so. In short, they would have used it as a PR tool to bleed more support from the other party and increase their perceived lead.

The ONLY conceivable reason to make such a move given the circumstances. Especially since the very person heading up the senate when Garland was blocked is still in the same role. Is that they have no confidence in a victory and would like to install this judge nonetheless. Which, has the added benefit of potentially swaying the court on the election itself should a close call be contested in the Supreme Court. Though, I doubt this to be the primary reason for the move.

The other evidence comes from Trump himself. His personality doesn't really align with his words. If Trump truly felt the only way he could lose would be if he was cheated of the victory there would be no value for him in making statements justifying a loss. Nor would he bother attempting to sabotage the postal system, or publicly discredit certain voting measures. A man who feels the election is his for the winning would contrarily want every vote counted. Would be willing to wait for the results to rub them in the faces of his detractors. And he wouldn't waste a minute on the rhetoric he has no wasted hours spouting. 

 If he were concerned, legitimately, about the safety of the election, he has the power to address or at least assist with legitimate concerns.

What Trump gains by his current posturing is to incite unrest. To make the validity of the vote harder to ascertain and accept. What narcissist who believes his victory assured would do this? And if you don't accept he is a narcissist... what sane person would do this?

In short, the actions of both the Republicans and Trump are at odds with what would be reasonable actions of a group that felt even in the slightest bit comfortable with the way that this election is unfolding.

The Supreme Court Justice thing SHOULD have been the icing on the cake. It was almost TOO perfect. To be able to say "look our candidate isn't doing what we demonized Obama for, even though we COULD replace a Democratic leaning justice with a Republican leaning one" would have been just too good. 

Honestly, I don't think it can be overstated how massive the good PR would have been. And how it would have re-painted the end of the election in Trump's favour. What Republicans really need is a reason for Democrats to abandon Biden the way they abandoned Clinton. None has emerged thus far, and, as Obama's VP it would have been an easy sell to convince at least some Democrats that Biden would have rushed an appointee through. Which would have mattered if Trump hadn't.

And it is frankly not even feasible in the remotest that Republicans hadn't considered this. They chose to act as they did, in all likelihood, because they feared Trump was so far behind that they needed a consolation prize. Not something to extend or secure a lead.