How did Trump get so many votes?

I'm sure this will be dissected for years to come by pollsters. But, I think the answer is simple; people underestimated the loyalty of Trump supporters.

My reasoning is in these points; based on what I read, Trump got about the votes I would expect, at least, based the expected voter turnout. But, the turnout didn't end up as high as expected and the losses seemed to have affected Biden more. I also think this makes sense on two levels. Trump as a brand, and over confidence.

So, yeah, the first bit would the voter turnout. As they announced the number of early voters and projections for overall voter turnout, numbers reached up as high as 87%. But, some more common estimates (and they seemed reasonable based on early vote counts) were in the 70%+ range. Actual voter turnout was 65%. Which is high. But, not where the projections were. And, even if we assume the low end, and say 70%, that missing 5% easily accounts for misses in the polls even if you assume some of those votes would have went Trump.

So, less motivated Democratic voters seems like a safe choice. Especially when we think about this more holistically. Trump isn't the Republican candidate. The Republican party is the Trump party. Trump is the brand. And a personal brand like that is very powerful. 

Whereas, I don't think people see Biden as the brand for the Democratic party. Additionally, a lot of polls projected huge, safe wins for Biden and he wasn't instilling a fear in his base. On top of that, a base which was more prone to believe and fear COVID-19 likely didn't help in encouraging people to vote.

Trump, by contrast, had been stoking fears of a stolen election for months beforehand. The polls showed their man behind. And they are the standard bearers of the Trump political brand. They showed up for the expected reasons (fear of defeat) but also as loyalists and out of fears the election would be stolen from them.

Alternatively, it could simply be possible that the polls were wrong again. They got a lot right, but guessing exact margins and 100% of the races wasn't likely from the beginning.

That being said, we will get a better sense thanks to the run-off elections for Georgia. If there is truth to this, then Republicans will likely lose one or both. It would go a long way to explain the GOP pressure on the Republican who was in charge of the election in that state. Basically... if Trump/GOP actual support differed from votes because Trump supporters showed up in disproportionate numbers, then it would make a lot more sense for one or both of these close races to flip during the run-off election as the near loss will light a fire back under the Democratic supporters who stayed home the first time thinking victory was a given.

All I'll say is; if anything, the outcome was far more in Trump's favor than was expected. And this is a damning fact for anyone convinced the election was stolen. As I stated before... Trump didn't really do anything to appeal to a broader group of supporters. If anything, he played to a few key groups who already supported him and even made some moves which would have scared many groups of voters who handed him the 2016 election. Combined with the lack of Hilary Clinton levels of hate for Biden and it really is Trump's results which seem higher than they should be.

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