Famous Last Words?

I watched a video tonight which reminded me of the difference between a causal link, and a correlation. And I feel like Alberta's politicians are either idiotic or wilfully negligent.

It is in these cases that I of course hope they are idiots. At least then the rhetoric is justifiable.

The article in question is this one. And the problem is several-fold. The first is that in one paragraph the Chief Medial Officer states that contact tracers aren't able to do their jobs any more as the case load is too high. And in the next the Premiere states to know that the infections aren't being caused by businesses. Which is, of course, impossible to know because the contact tracers haven't been able to do their job for weeks in that Province.

Second is the measures introduced don't really change anything. They are primarily targeted at the same groups who ignored recommendations before. It will continue.

Thirdly is the belief that keeping businesses open is better.

And lastly, is the INSANE conclusions drawn on preparedness.

I think I already covered my first two points well enough above. So, I'll move right onto 3 and 4.

The belief that businesses won't be impacted or will be less impacted without strict lock downs isn't really backed in any evidence. I'm not sure that there is a conclusive study, so I would be hard pressed to draw a conclusion either way. BUT, what evidence IS available seems suggests that the opposite is true. 

Strict lock downs have a greater impact on bringing down numbers and a better effect consumer confidence after restrictions are eased. With lacklustre measures, there ends up being multiple waves of smaller lock down and significantly decreased consumer activity.

And, in addition to much longer periods of below average sales volume, no lock downs means no stimulus which means that businesses absorb more of those losses.

Basically, even IF Alberta can get through this without SUBSTANTIAL lock downs it isn't likely to save many businesses which wouldn't have survived anyway. And many more of those are likely to be facing soul crushing debt loads. But, I don't think that they CAN get through this without either one SEVERELY deep lock down combined with tougher measures when they come out the other side of this or multiple smaller lock downs.

Time will tell.

But, the next bit is where the causal vs. correlation comes in. The Health Minister argued that the lower death rate in Alberta is proof that the government planned well. It is no such thing. There are actually a great many reasons why Alberta's death rate is lower. And no one factor can likely claim success. But, I can think of 3 which likely play some of the biggest roles: average age, hospital capacity, and when the cases spiked.

90% of Canada's deaths (according to Global News National 2 nights ago) are from long term care facilities. Alberta has one of the youngest populations in Canada. So, they are comparatively deficient in the category of people most affected. This is not a factor which the government has any direct control over, nor can take any credit for.

Secondly is hospital capacity. Alberta's hospital capacity is bonkers. Riding the oil industry highs brought immense wealth and tax money to Alberta. As a result they have the most hospital beds per capita compared to other large Provinces. And, while governments have an impact here, Alberta has actually decrease health spending during the current administration. And they haven't added any beds or doctors. So, in short, once again, there is nothing they can take credit for here. They inherited a top notch system.

And lastly is timing. Alberta didn't record it's first case for weeks after Ontario and the other major Provinces, and only got a real first wave of infections in the past few weeks.

This has 2 impacts. Firstly, Alberta is further behind in their curves and secondly, medical understanding has advanced and improved the mortality rates. And, since Alberta hasn't particularly done anything in terms of health measures except as reactionary measures and recommendations coming much later than everywhere else, it is once again no something the government can take credit for.

And these 3 things (all of which owe basically nothing to the government's COVID response) probably have a much strong link to the data than anything which the government has done.

But, if that makes you feel good about Alberta... don't. Alberta's case rate is rising so fast, and I think most projections see them hitting capacity in 1-3 weeks. After that, the fatality rate will rise. Because without a cure they will run head long into the problem Italy did; deaths in preventable cases due to a lack of infrastructure. Also, while Alberta may have fewer elderly and fewer long term care homes, they still have them. And as this spreads through the general population it will also start hitting those facilities.

While we may not know specifics, we've seen the story play out enough times now to know where it is generally going.