Election Thoughts

While I didn't vote Liberal and didn't really think Trudeau or his government were the best option in the last election, I likewise didn't feel like the Conservatives were any better. In fact, I thought (and still do) think them far worse.

But, in a lot of ways Trudeau is starting to make plays from the Steven Harper playbook. The long, unnecessary prorogation of parliament amid a scandal and now the refusal into oversight are two such cases. The Liberal government which won back Parliament from Harper would have been all for such actions.

Make no mistake; I think Erin O'Toole is a pompous windbag and that this is purely a partisan move to allow him to continue to stoking the political flames. But, just as Trudeau injured his own reputation in refusing to remove Morneau and allowing his opponents to control the narrative, he is doing it again. Making a vote on this a confidence motion and refusing to constructively contribute is NOT going to help his image.

I suspect Trudeau is somewhat hoping to have an excuse to be backed into a corner, as the Canadian elections we've seen so far have seen the incumbents who handled COVID-19 well win back office with even greater majorities. 

And while that very well could happen, I somehow doubt it.

This latest move wreaks of desperation. And having it come on the heels of prorogation which is something I sure a lot of Liberal supporters won't be happy with is certainly not help.

I don't see the current Liberal administration winning additional supporters. Similarly, I don't really see the Conservatives winning supporters either. But, they may not need too. The current feel of the political climate (and yes I know that isn't scientific or statistical in any way) leaves me feeling like the current Conservative party has neither done anything to alienate or attract new voters, while the Liberals have broken key promises around thins like transparency and prorogation of parliament.

So, what seems likely to me is that in a forced election, the NDP and Bloc would pick up more seats leading to a Conservative minority government being formed. I think the handling of the pandemic, especially compared to our only bordering country would stop them from losing so many votes as to end up with an NDP opposition. But, the other more core political issues are likely to drive some away.

Keep in mind, a major part of the reason why Trudeau wasn't because of typical political issues. It was solely because of Western sentiment. And the Conservatives have successfully continued to stoke that based of voters while Trudeau has done very little of a tangible nature out that way.

I don't think, realistically, that there is anything any government could do for the West right now. But, that isn't relevant. How they FEEL is what is relevant. And they FEEL abandoned by the current administration.

So, I mean, you basically have O'Toole doggedly fighting for this review which will in all likelihood reveal nothing of substance. A move which won't endear him to existing voters of any other party. But, which won't impact his base. And you have Trudeau acting like a mini-Harper which will likely lose him supporters, but not in any significant numbers to the Conservatives.

Singh has been a lot more level headed than either of Trudeau or O'Toole. But, I think many people will find the NDP policies a little too socially progressive and also think them more of a gamble. After all, they were pushing for even more spending than the Liberals. So while they make pick up a few seats, it won't be any major coupe. 

The Bloc might pick up a few feats because Liberal voters in Quebec are unlikely to switch Conservative. 

The Green party isn't likely to gain anything by a vote. Even a lot of environmentally conscious Liberal and NDP voters are thinking that in the current economic climate we should be scaling back efforts which affect even more Canadian jobs, which almost exclusively how people seem to perceive Green politics.

And that is my best guess as to how an election triggered today would play out. You would have a disgustingly divided O'Toole minority which likely wouldn't last a few weeks in power.