Why I don't think Trump will win again. At least, not fairly.

This isn't anti-Trump post. It is simply my interpretation of the facts. If I felt that the truth lent itself more toward a Trump victory I would like to think I would accept that as well. Also, I'm not American. I still have a vested interest in the outcome of the US Presidential elections however, as the Presidents actions impact trade with Canada and thus jobs and economics here. However, this isn't about who I want to win or reasons for that.

I think the simplest place to start is the outcome of the last election. Trump lost the popular vote. In short, swing states played more of a role than ever before. If popular vote results had played out evenly in all states Clinton would have won. But, at the same time, the outcome wasn't like the last Canadian election where the lopsided outcome could be blamed on MASSIVE differences in just a few places.

In most places it was a close race. Some electoral colleges were won or lost thanks to vote splitting. And Hilary Clinton was basically the most unfairly maligned candidate in recent history.

So, in short, for Trump to win again, it stands to reason that his opponent would either need to be similarly afflicted or that Trump himself would need to have gained in popularity.

From where I stand, neither is the case. 

Trump is to blame for the US's failed handling of COVID-19. He is to blame for numerous trade wars. His immigration policies would have slowed the economic growth even without that. He's ruined the US's reputation on the global stage which will impact tourism and future trade deals with other countries. He has dug in his heels on oil and gas while the world moves on. He's cost many American's a great deal of money by gutting Obamacare. He's alienated anyone with any ties to someone of questionable immigration status. And the list practically seems to go on writing itself.

Trump was handed to golden goose. COVID-19 is the single greatest thing to happen to rational politicians. Here in Ontario, Doug Ford (a Conservative) is more popular than ever, as is the Prime Minister (a Liberal). How to members of competing factions BOTH rise in popularity? By making the appropriate response to COVID-19.

My prediction a few months back when Trump first started talking about lifting lock downs was simple; while the science is heavily biased toward the need for protections to be left in place, there isn't a glut of reliable information, and if Trump ends up being right, he'll win a landslide. The US would bounce back faster than anyone else due to the strength of their economy and the relatively short lock down. 

Instead, he was wrong. And the reverse is happening. Many places are going back into lock down, resulting in longer closures than would have been required. It is resulting in more deaths. And it is having a bigger disruption on employment levels. 

Probably the worst part of it though is that the handling has meant that the infection is still strong going into the school year. A well established problem is that, for the economy to recover, parents need to be able to return. And this can't happen while schools are closed.

Fundamentally, mishandling this one incident will have a more profound short term effect on the American economy than any other single or combination of things the President has done.

And, I don't want this post to be about COVID-19. But, it is a HUGE part of the reason why I think he will lose. Not only does he not have an opponent as widely hated as Clinton this time around, his poor handling of the pandemic has made a bad situation in the US economy even worse. And as the people he has fired and chastised are constantly proven to have been on the right side of history it becomes increasingly harder for any critical thinker to ignore.

You also have to combine this with the fact that the incumbent is usually the one with the less reliable voter turnout. Those who want Trump out will vote in greater numbers than those who want him to stay in. Had the 2016 election been on the heels on a Republican President, Clinton might have won, even in the same hostile environment.

And, beyond that, it is natural for the President (or any head of state) to lose popularity over the course of their term. During an election campaign, you have others to deflect at and attack. Once the elections are done, you stand alone for the better part of 4 years. As the winner, you stand alone. And people tend to hate more strongly than they love and remember the bad more readily than the good.

So, while I see a lot of article suggesting that the poles are wrong and that Trump may actually be in a favorable position, I think the opposite is true. I think the polls are actually more favorable for Biden than reported. 

PS - It occurs to me, I totally gave up on my 2 sentence format for controversial politics posts.