Will Trump win re-election?

Honestly, I don't know. Before COVID-19 I felt it was basically a guarantee. A lot has changed.

Back then there was no Democrat to lead a solid opposition. Trump's base hasn't be phased by some fairly crazy things. And the Democrats that are in power have handled attempts to oust him like an idiot. I mean, that whole "quid pro quo" was probably the weakest argument they had. And they beat that horse to death and had nothing else in backup.

But then COVID-19 hit. And Trump took the road less travelled. He decided to open the economy back up while cases weren't going so well.

And I turned and said to me wife "He is an idiot, but if he is right on this gamble he WILL win the next election. If he's wrong, he's got no chance".

I was fairly sure things wouldn't go well, but this was all announced rather early on and some countries had seen some success with less rigid restrictions like Sweden and Japan. But, Japan is also much more conscientious about face masks and Sweden as it turned out was... well, wrong.

And now states are shutting back down again. People blame national leaders when the economy suffers. And most times it isn't their fault. This time, it is rather directly the President's fault.

The world is headed for a strange place. Had the US as a whole followed the trends of other nations as New York did, they may now be at a place where they are starting to see cases drop and reopening might be on a more reasonable pace with those other countries.

And this is actually key to why Trump would have won if the gamble paid off. If the restrictions turned out not to be required, and a few countries bucked the trend and stayed operational or got back quicker then they would not only recover quicker, but also scoop up more market share as other countries came back out as they would be better ready to meet demands.

Basically, gambling right on this Coronavirus is your countries ticket to increased prosperity. If you could time the PERFECT time to end your restrictions with the least impact, you would be better positioned economically to meet needs of other countries as they came out of their lock downs.

However, being wrong on this gamble is now putting the US back into lock down at a far later stage in the game and on a larger scale. And this, ultimately will mean that other countries will fill in the void left by the US if they come back out of lock down sooner. Not to mention, more and longer lock downs will force more industries to start from scratch or closer to it and more people will be out of work longer term.

And I want to  be clear. I'm not saying that leaving the decision in the hands of the individual states was wrong. It was the messaging. Trump left it in their hands, but also publicly goaded them into opening. He constantly played down the virus and its impact. Fed into conspiracy theories. And generally created an inconsistent message which promoted faster spread of the disease.

It is the same problem I see in Alberta. The Premiere there, constantly, focused on the economic impacts and downplayed the disease itself. They bragged about their infection rates. But, the math doesn't back their position. They started seeing the disease a full month and half after Ontario. That we are, in real time, basically tied in terms of per-capita infections and their daily spikes are worse than ours is INSANE.

But, as I said, not surprising. The head of the party is also the head of the political party with the most public support. Much of the guidance is originating in government led agencies. And ideas which run against those portrayed or disseminated by the ruling party are seen as the crazy rantings of "leftist snowflakes" or "right wing extremists". Very few people are ACTUALLY listening to the science. They are just listening to the people they want trust and accepting whatever science they are fed from those sources.

This is why this NEEDS to be a non-partisan issue with a consistent message. Ontario's success in recovering I would attribute to our Premiere backing down on his mistakes prior to march break and presenting a message consistent with the Federal government. Which is CRAZY effective because you have a Liberal PM and a Conservative Premiere giving the same message. It is pretty easy and clear for people to get and follow the message clearly here. At least, comparatively speaking. People are still people after all.

Being categorically proven wrong is hard, and when it happens, devastating. And that is what Trump is facing. And he is facing it against the backdrop of lost jobs.

It is hard to imagine Trump winning this coming election with Biden being reasonably popular, less divisive than Clinton, and basically promising a younger, ethnic running mate against the backdrop of the Black Lives Matter movement. He has also been shown in a face mask regularly and presents as the kind of person with the right mindset for the current situation. And with 25% of the global infections, it seems downright unlikely that this will blow over by November. In fact, that it basically flu season. What all of the experts are most afraid of.