The real problem with COVID-19 responses.

As communities start opening up, I feel like we aren't a species particularly good at learning from history.

Virtually nowhere is the disease even remotely "gone". And yet people are relaxing restrictions. Yes. Economies need to open up. That isn't actually my problem in all of this. It is the how we got here in the first place.

The problem is actually reasonably simple. There are 2 ways to effectively deal with this pandemic without a vaccine and only one valid compromise path.

No country has taken any of these routes.

Path #1: Total lock down for 2-4 weeks. The virus needs new hosts. Force EVERYONE and I mean EVERYONE inside for 2-4 weeks and the virus will run its course.

Even if you tack on some extra days to prep to ensure people have food, medication and whatnot needed during this extreme quarantine... it would simply never fly. Firstly, people would riot, or break the rules. It is simply too hard to enforce. Especially since it requires the enforcers to isolate as well. So, this is understandable.

Path #2: Mass exposure. You can get herd immunity if you get enough people sick. But, sorting this out quickly would be a disaster. Even Italy where the ran rampant for a while is nowhere near herd immunity numbers and the number of deaths are staggering.

Path #3: Long term reform. I think this is what a lot of countries would love to say they are doing. But, they are not. This requires a single set of enforceable changes which can be left in place until a vaccine is found. A 1-2 week max stricter quarantine period at the outset is fine so long as it is used to help draft those plans.

This compromise path is what we need. But, the problem has been simple. Countries aren't doing anything even remotely like this. Enforcing a strict lock down too long leads to people actively violating future constraints and becoming less receptive to lock downs. Close down beaches too long, and crowds flood in when they open. Force people inside too long, and they come out in droves afterwards.

It is predictable. And it is happening. Everywhere. We need masks everywhere. We need contact tracing apps to be mandatory. We need rules which can allows restaurants and schools to open, even if capacities are reduced. We need long term rules to follow for social interactions with other households.

This is the path of compromise. It isn't intended to stop the disease. So yes, there will continue to be outbreaks. But, unless you go one of the other two routes, all routes will lead there until there is a vaccine. And given the timelines, everyone, everywhere, needs enforceable, understandable guidelines which can help mitigate the spread. And they needed long before we got to a point where people felt like they had spent months trapped inside.

To my mind there is no value whatsoever is gradually easing restrictions. People are going to celebrate their freedoms in ways which will jeopardize the system. They've been cooped up too long. And if we can agree that we can't maintain the lock downs, then we need to draft those rules and be willing to enforce them. These systems are all interdependent. You can't truly drive recovery if you can't open them all back up.