Second wave of COVID-19?
I'm still a little shocked at how dense the news coverage around COVID-19 is.
It seems like people are still treating it as a question of whether or not there will be a second wave of infection.
But, I don't think that there is really much question. Unless timelines change for re-opening or there is a major discovery which complete rewrites our understanding of this virus, there will be a second wave. Period.
There are only two ways to prevent a second wave; eliminate the virus in the human population or develop herd immunity through either vaccine or infection.
We're talking about a virus which infected tens of thousands in China in a matter of weeks. And spread globally weeks after that. This is a HIGHLY efficient virus at spreading. It will slip through the cracks. If this weren't the case, then we should have already been reporting countries which have shut down travel for over a month reducing their case count to zero.
So, the problem is simple. There is no vaccine at present. There is not even a clinical trial underway which is far enough along to even be legitimately hopeful of a success. Which means, if there are plans at all to re-open being discussed, they are, frankly, coming too soon.
Herd immunity, even naturally, is probably similarly far off. While the virus is effective and quick at spreading, it has still been confirmed in less than 1% of the population even in past and present epicentres of the virus.
And of course, attempting to fast track herd immunity would result in a death count FAR higher than it would be with other measures in place.
So, the conventional wisdom looks a little like this. With awareness of the virus in the public mind, and some measures remaining in place, opening back up will result in an increase in cases. A second wave. It may not spike as quickly as the first wave. That really depends on which measures are left in place and how well people act with regards the restrictions. It could readily spike far worse than the first wave though.
The things which might allow us to contain a second wave would likely require measures which violate rights and freedoms. For instance, a mandatory application to assist in contact tracing, combined with enforcing that people have their phones on, charged and tracking them any time they leave their houses and being able to extract proof that these rules are being followed.
If that could be linked with a system for testing and classifying the public based on their risk, and then controlling access to certain environments based on those results... then sure. We might be able to pull it off. But, realistically, I don't think you'd ever get enough buy-in on such a strategy.
It seems like people are still treating it as a question of whether or not there will be a second wave of infection.
But, I don't think that there is really much question. Unless timelines change for re-opening or there is a major discovery which complete rewrites our understanding of this virus, there will be a second wave. Period.
There are only two ways to prevent a second wave; eliminate the virus in the human population or develop herd immunity through either vaccine or infection.
We're talking about a virus which infected tens of thousands in China in a matter of weeks. And spread globally weeks after that. This is a HIGHLY efficient virus at spreading. It will slip through the cracks. If this weren't the case, then we should have already been reporting countries which have shut down travel for over a month reducing their case count to zero.
So, the problem is simple. There is no vaccine at present. There is not even a clinical trial underway which is far enough along to even be legitimately hopeful of a success. Which means, if there are plans at all to re-open being discussed, they are, frankly, coming too soon.
Herd immunity, even naturally, is probably similarly far off. While the virus is effective and quick at spreading, it has still been confirmed in less than 1% of the population even in past and present epicentres of the virus.
And of course, attempting to fast track herd immunity would result in a death count FAR higher than it would be with other measures in place.
So, the conventional wisdom looks a little like this. With awareness of the virus in the public mind, and some measures remaining in place, opening back up will result in an increase in cases. A second wave. It may not spike as quickly as the first wave. That really depends on which measures are left in place and how well people act with regards the restrictions. It could readily spike far worse than the first wave though.
The things which might allow us to contain a second wave would likely require measures which violate rights and freedoms. For instance, a mandatory application to assist in contact tracing, combined with enforcing that people have their phones on, charged and tracking them any time they leave their houses and being able to extract proof that these rules are being followed.
If that could be linked with a system for testing and classifying the public based on their risk, and then controlling access to certain environments based on those results... then sure. We might be able to pull it off. But, realistically, I don't think you'd ever get enough buy-in on such a strategy.
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