On the US relaxing restrictions.
There are funny statements which continue to back up my theory that absolutely no one has any idea what they are talking about when it comes to this pandemic.
I hear that the US may have hit or be near "the peak" of its infection. So, they want to start easing the lock down.
The "peak" is simply the point at which the number of daily cases ceases to grow. If you have undeniably, and beyond doubt hit "the peak" under a certain set of conditions, say, while under extreme lock down, and then you change those conditions? Then there is no longer any guarantee that you've hit the overall peak.
The "peak" is not some magical point in time or an incantation. Just because public health officials or politicians claim to have hit "the peak" doesn't mean a thing. Japan's infection rate is a perfect case study here. They did a good job early on. Relaxed conditions, and the new peaks are higher than the original.
It isn't that Japan hadn't actually peaked. It likely had peaked. Under the circumstances at the time. The change in circumstances however allowed for the disease to spread exponentially again, triggering new peaks.
And, what we're seeing in Japan should be a warning to countries thinking of jumping the gun on relaxing the measures put in place. I fear that cases in Japan are spiking faster than before because the people no longer have an appetite to return to confinement.
It is one thing to have 1 big, prolonged, period of sacrifice. It is another thing entirely to get a whole nation of people to accept 2 prolonged periods of sacrifice back to back. Even if the sum total of the time sacrificed is lower.
People are sick and tired of isolating. And once they get back that freedom, you'll find it harder to take it back away.
This is the real problem with ignoring the threat in the US. The numbers I'm looking at put the US 644k+ total cases right now. Which is about 0.2% of the population. Even if we assume much wider spread rate of infection due to a lack of testing, the US is nowhere near herd immunity levels of infection.
And, cases are now being reported of people in China being affected multiple times. And while we don't know the rate at which that happens, if it is high enough, then there will never be any herd immunity.
It is pretty scary to think that a virus which only emerged at the end of last year is already reinfecting people. Normally, you would expect someone to retain immunity for a much longer period of time.
Frankly, I think people are still having a hard time grasping exponential growth. Remember; this started with a single infection. If there is no vaccine or herd immunity otherwise, this will rip through the population again once the restrictions are relaxed.
I hear that the US may have hit or be near "the peak" of its infection. So, they want to start easing the lock down.
The "peak" is simply the point at which the number of daily cases ceases to grow. If you have undeniably, and beyond doubt hit "the peak" under a certain set of conditions, say, while under extreme lock down, and then you change those conditions? Then there is no longer any guarantee that you've hit the overall peak.
The "peak" is not some magical point in time or an incantation. Just because public health officials or politicians claim to have hit "the peak" doesn't mean a thing. Japan's infection rate is a perfect case study here. They did a good job early on. Relaxed conditions, and the new peaks are higher than the original.
It isn't that Japan hadn't actually peaked. It likely had peaked. Under the circumstances at the time. The change in circumstances however allowed for the disease to spread exponentially again, triggering new peaks.
And, what we're seeing in Japan should be a warning to countries thinking of jumping the gun on relaxing the measures put in place. I fear that cases in Japan are spiking faster than before because the people no longer have an appetite to return to confinement.
It is one thing to have 1 big, prolonged, period of sacrifice. It is another thing entirely to get a whole nation of people to accept 2 prolonged periods of sacrifice back to back. Even if the sum total of the time sacrificed is lower.
People are sick and tired of isolating. And once they get back that freedom, you'll find it harder to take it back away.
This is the real problem with ignoring the threat in the US. The numbers I'm looking at put the US 644k+ total cases right now. Which is about 0.2% of the population. Even if we assume much wider spread rate of infection due to a lack of testing, the US is nowhere near herd immunity levels of infection.
And, cases are now being reported of people in China being affected multiple times. And while we don't know the rate at which that happens, if it is high enough, then there will never be any herd immunity.
It is pretty scary to think that a virus which only emerged at the end of last year is already reinfecting people. Normally, you would expect someone to retain immunity for a much longer period of time.
Frankly, I think people are still having a hard time grasping exponential growth. Remember; this started with a single infection. If there is no vaccine or herd immunity otherwise, this will rip through the population again once the restrictions are relaxed.
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