Thoughts on Japan's COVID-19 rates.
Japan has been getting a lot of coverage for having relatively low rates of infection despite not taking the extreme measures seen in other countries.
There is some concern that the numbers in Japan may be on the verge of exploding. But, at the moment, that is as much conjecture as anything else.
And, to be blunt, what I'm about to say is also merely conjecture. As in anything of this scale, if there is even a hint of truth to it, it is also likely only a portion of the answer.
But, I see a parallel between Japan and South Korea. Two areas which have fared incredibly well. South Korea is the model for success of course with their early testing and contact tracing serving to prevent the spread, and their excess hospital capacity reducing the threat of severe cases.
I do think that there may also be a cultural element at play.
Both countries are places where you're likely to see a good chunk of people wearing face masks even when there is no pandemic.
This means two things; a cultural acceptance of the individuals responsibility when it comes to illness. And a society much more likely to have already had masks on hand and the outset of the virus.
Really, the only thing needed to do after that is spread the word so that these resources can be mobilized.
While it is true that most of these face masks are not medical grade and won't stop the spread 100%, literally everyone can agree that they are better than nothing. A lot better in fact. And, if enough people are wearing them, it increases that reduction even further. A scenario which is quite simply more likely in a country where more people have access to such protection.
This social acceptance and understanding also underlines another potential; that more of the population might be willing to comply with even the suggestion that they should practice social distancing without the need for harsh restrictions.
If you looked at videos of Japan, major business hubs, trains, and everything were far less populated than I'm seeing here in Canada. And Canada IS on a mild lock down, whereas Japan wasn't. And Japan's population density is FAR greater than Canada's. Especially in Tokyo.
In short, there is clearly a social element at play that is in their favor. If Japanese residents were reacting to the situation the same way we are over here in North America, you wouldn't have these shots nearly empty train stations, and shopping venues. And I don't think that their numbers would be as encouraging as they are.
For instance, I went to some live web cams. We're now over a month after this hit Japan, so, I decided to take a look at some shots in Shibuya. And it is night time, in a foreigner heavy part of Japan that is also typically bustling. Over a month after this started, readily more than 1/2 and maybe upwards of 1/3 of the people I'm seeing are wearing face masks.
Sure, busy centers of major cities here are fairly dead now. But, that only happened after the lock downs came into effect. And we are much more impacted by the shortage of masks because few here wear them with any regularity. So the overwhelming majority of those out and about are breathing out and in without anything to block the spread.
Basically, where I end on this is; many people think Japan is somehow masking the true numbers, and that they are on the verge of an explosion of cases.
I don't think they are masking the numbers. At least not any more or less than any other nation. With an almost guaranteed exponential spread when not properly contained, I don't think it is possible for them to have intentionally masked any credible volume of cases for this long. Exponential growth doesn't really allow you do that without wholesale lies.
So while I don't know if they will or won't have another spike in cases or not, I do believe the numbers. But I also think that the social atmosphere is a lot different there and permitted them to attain near lock down performance from its citizens without an actual lock down. Which combined with better general practices in the community regarding the prevention of the spread of disease helped to mitigate things further.
I also don't think it is a model which can replicated intentionally. If you social order doesn't reflect that of a country like Japan or South Korea, then you probably need to get much more aggressive, and much more quickly.
I think a lot of the doubt stems from a lack of understanding and appreciation of the differences in other cultures. It is impossible to imagine Americans or Canadians in significant numbers actively isolating themselves and successfully adopting major hygiene reform without some external force. And so, it is also a lot harder for us to imagine others not only attempting it, but also succeeding.
There is some concern that the numbers in Japan may be on the verge of exploding. But, at the moment, that is as much conjecture as anything else.
And, to be blunt, what I'm about to say is also merely conjecture. As in anything of this scale, if there is even a hint of truth to it, it is also likely only a portion of the answer.
But, I see a parallel between Japan and South Korea. Two areas which have fared incredibly well. South Korea is the model for success of course with their early testing and contact tracing serving to prevent the spread, and their excess hospital capacity reducing the threat of severe cases.
I do think that there may also be a cultural element at play.
Both countries are places where you're likely to see a good chunk of people wearing face masks even when there is no pandemic.
This means two things; a cultural acceptance of the individuals responsibility when it comes to illness. And a society much more likely to have already had masks on hand and the outset of the virus.
Really, the only thing needed to do after that is spread the word so that these resources can be mobilized.
While it is true that most of these face masks are not medical grade and won't stop the spread 100%, literally everyone can agree that they are better than nothing. A lot better in fact. And, if enough people are wearing them, it increases that reduction even further. A scenario which is quite simply more likely in a country where more people have access to such protection.
This social acceptance and understanding also underlines another potential; that more of the population might be willing to comply with even the suggestion that they should practice social distancing without the need for harsh restrictions.
If you looked at videos of Japan, major business hubs, trains, and everything were far less populated than I'm seeing here in Canada. And Canada IS on a mild lock down, whereas Japan wasn't. And Japan's population density is FAR greater than Canada's. Especially in Tokyo.
In short, there is clearly a social element at play that is in their favor. If Japanese residents were reacting to the situation the same way we are over here in North America, you wouldn't have these shots nearly empty train stations, and shopping venues. And I don't think that their numbers would be as encouraging as they are.
For instance, I went to some live web cams. We're now over a month after this hit Japan, so, I decided to take a look at some shots in Shibuya. And it is night time, in a foreigner heavy part of Japan that is also typically bustling. Over a month after this started, readily more than 1/2 and maybe upwards of 1/3 of the people I'm seeing are wearing face masks.
Sure, busy centers of major cities here are fairly dead now. But, that only happened after the lock downs came into effect. And we are much more impacted by the shortage of masks because few here wear them with any regularity. So the overwhelming majority of those out and about are breathing out and in without anything to block the spread.
Basically, where I end on this is; many people think Japan is somehow masking the true numbers, and that they are on the verge of an explosion of cases.
I don't think they are masking the numbers. At least not any more or less than any other nation. With an almost guaranteed exponential spread when not properly contained, I don't think it is possible for them to have intentionally masked any credible volume of cases for this long. Exponential growth doesn't really allow you do that without wholesale lies.
So while I don't know if they will or won't have another spike in cases or not, I do believe the numbers. But I also think that the social atmosphere is a lot different there and permitted them to attain near lock down performance from its citizens without an actual lock down. Which combined with better general practices in the community regarding the prevention of the spread of disease helped to mitigate things further.
I also don't think it is a model which can replicated intentionally. If you social order doesn't reflect that of a country like Japan or South Korea, then you probably need to get much more aggressive, and much more quickly.
I think a lot of the doubt stems from a lack of understanding and appreciation of the differences in other cultures. It is impossible to imagine Americans or Canadians in significant numbers actively isolating themselves and successfully adopting major hygiene reform without some external force. And so, it is also a lot harder for us to imagine others not only attempting it, but also succeeding.
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