The case against oil
I understand the resistance to change. Both in general, and I can certainly understand it in this particular context. At least, for a few groups of people. But, more generally, I'm not sure I really understand the mainstream resistance EVs and solar panels.
As for the understanding bit; if you work in the industry, or look at fossil fuels from the standpoint of an industry with no other options, it certainly makes sense to defend oil. If you're a low mileage driver, or an extremely high mile driver, or use a truck for work... I get the resistance to EVs. The infrastructure isn't there, and in those cases the costs can be high or the use case non-sustainable.
But, this isn't the sort of resistance I see.
Someone has done a good job of shaping the narrative. Because based on what I hear on the topic lately, you'd think that the only possible reason to choose alternative energy sources is in a bid to safe the world. And that couldn't be further from the truth.
While there are similar cases to be made in many cases outside of the automotive sector, I'm going to focus there, just because it tends to be one of the more popular areas of discussion and because I have some first hand exposure there to talk about.
Here are my reasons:
1. The Environment
OK, it was going to be on the list. But, I'm not going to bother preaching. I'm going to state the facts that both sides can agree with. We are pumping carbon and other harmful chemicals into the air. We know the rate we're doing this is profoundly large. And we are unsure of the effects.
Whether you side with climate change scientists or you side with those who think they are alarmist, the actual scientists in both groups agree with all of the above. Neither group has perfect models. Neither group can fully explain the rates of change and impacts.
In the face of this knowledge, it would be reckless to not at least consider hedging our bets and trying to stop ourselves from running headlong into what could be a disaster.
2. Cost
This is where it is easy to diverge. But, I think that there is a huge market of people here who are grossly ignorant of the personal savings. I used to live north of Toronto in a city of commuters where the average person drove 100km or more each way to work every day. The cars on the road tended to range from either new and high-end or old.
Now, if we assuming that taking out holidays, time off, sick days, etc... that the average person works for 40 weeks a year (yeah I'm assuming 12 weeks off, I think that should keep me covered), and an average commute of 100km each way we get 40000 KM a year, just on the commute. And assuming 10l/100km and $1/l in gas. That is $4000k a year spent on gas. If we assume that the people in the fancy cars upgrade every 4 years, that $16k in gas. And if we assume the older cars get replaced every 10 years, that is $40k.
I don't think this estimate is unreasonable. Firstly, 12 weeks of vacation? And $1/L for gas? And the 10L/100KM isn't unreasonable either given our tendency towards SUVs and trucks. But, like I said, even a more efficient vehicle would likely land in this range when you consider how generous I was on gas and days driven.
Sure, electricity isn't free either. And I'll assume the absolute worst. Every. Single. KWH. Is. Paid. It is still going to be about 1/10 the cost of gas. We're going to focus on the low end here. The people holding out 10 years per car. The people buying new cars every 4 years... with these numbers, plus the incentives, there is no argument.
On the other side, that 10% cost knocks the gas savings down to $36k. In Ontario, the federal subsidy bumps that back up $41k. Then, add in the cost of a budget car. Say $15k. You're at $56k. In short, what you're already spending + what you'd save on gas is already equal to the MSRP of a standard range Tesla Model 3. And there are cheaper EVs out there with more than enough range to get the commute done.
And then on top of that is the savings in maintenance, and the savings from additional miles. And yes, plenty of EVs have packed on more than 400K KMs with considerably little maintenance.
And hey! Can't finance an EV? Hybrids and PHEVs are good deals too.
3. Air Pollution
This is the same but different from the environmental one. This time, we're talking more about how ICE vehicles create smog. The emissions are bad for tourism, and your health. So, even if the world isn't trying to kill us because of our carbon addition... the smog we created is. Increasing our adoption isn't saving anyone.
4. Diversification
Oil is a notoriously fickle commodity. Even with demand rising it is not keeping pace with production, oil companies invest tons of money each year to protect their bottom line. And they do this by improving efficiency. Which in turn results in more rigs being shut down every year, despite production increases.
Climate change or not, jobs are disappearing. And, the rapid outflux of businesses poses a very real challenge to economies the world over. Support of alternative energy sources would create investment in areas which are more stable. And in areas which require new solutions and can still be competitive in a way which creates more jobs and money.
5. Competition
Lets not pretend that whether or not solar or some other energy is able to replace oil entirely that the world isn't diversifying already.
Without investments which align with where the markets are heading, countries which stick to industries which are doomed to decline eventually, if not be eradicated then when the end is no longer avoidable, those countries will lose their place in the global economy. And that will hit a lot harder.
6. Resources are Limited
This shouldn't need to be said. But, oil is a finite resource. Some estimates from Oil company executives put us at 100-200 years away from the hard end of all oil. All oil! Let that sink in. Not every region is equally endowed with oil.
That means that there are reasonable odds that people are being born today that will see the day when their country becomes barren in terms of oil production.
Like the competition problem. The impact the economy and to real people working in that industry will be MUCH harder if you simply show up one day and your entire industry is out of business in your country.
None of the above points require you to believe that rising sea levels or temperatures are caused by burning fossil fuels. And some of those points hit even closer to home than climate change for a lot of people.
So, I am concerned that the narrative seems to stray eternally to climate change and that the average person is doing nothing about it.
Average people work in the oil industries. Their own industry is actively reducing their work force. And one day the wells will dry up. And if your country isn't a hub for what replaces it, you'll be SoL for even getting into an adjacent industry.
Commuters are average people. Maybe they don't think about how much they spend on gas or maintenance annually.
And sure, no one has a perfect answer to how all of this CO2 is affecting Earth that will satisfy everyone. But, the air pollution can still kill you. And if you're a climate denier and you're wrong, you have a lot more to lose than if you were to swing to other side and end up wrong.
As for the understanding bit; if you work in the industry, or look at fossil fuels from the standpoint of an industry with no other options, it certainly makes sense to defend oil. If you're a low mileage driver, or an extremely high mile driver, or use a truck for work... I get the resistance to EVs. The infrastructure isn't there, and in those cases the costs can be high or the use case non-sustainable.
But, this isn't the sort of resistance I see.
Someone has done a good job of shaping the narrative. Because based on what I hear on the topic lately, you'd think that the only possible reason to choose alternative energy sources is in a bid to safe the world. And that couldn't be further from the truth.
While there are similar cases to be made in many cases outside of the automotive sector, I'm going to focus there, just because it tends to be one of the more popular areas of discussion and because I have some first hand exposure there to talk about.
Here are my reasons:
1. The Environment
OK, it was going to be on the list. But, I'm not going to bother preaching. I'm going to state the facts that both sides can agree with. We are pumping carbon and other harmful chemicals into the air. We know the rate we're doing this is profoundly large. And we are unsure of the effects.
Whether you side with climate change scientists or you side with those who think they are alarmist, the actual scientists in both groups agree with all of the above. Neither group has perfect models. Neither group can fully explain the rates of change and impacts.
In the face of this knowledge, it would be reckless to not at least consider hedging our bets and trying to stop ourselves from running headlong into what could be a disaster.
2. Cost
This is where it is easy to diverge. But, I think that there is a huge market of people here who are grossly ignorant of the personal savings. I used to live north of Toronto in a city of commuters where the average person drove 100km or more each way to work every day. The cars on the road tended to range from either new and high-end or old.
Now, if we assuming that taking out holidays, time off, sick days, etc... that the average person works for 40 weeks a year (yeah I'm assuming 12 weeks off, I think that should keep me covered), and an average commute of 100km each way we get 40000 KM a year, just on the commute. And assuming 10l/100km and $1/l in gas. That is $4000k a year spent on gas. If we assume that the people in the fancy cars upgrade every 4 years, that $16k in gas. And if we assume the older cars get replaced every 10 years, that is $40k.
I don't think this estimate is unreasonable. Firstly, 12 weeks of vacation? And $1/L for gas? And the 10L/100KM isn't unreasonable either given our tendency towards SUVs and trucks. But, like I said, even a more efficient vehicle would likely land in this range when you consider how generous I was on gas and days driven.
Sure, electricity isn't free either. And I'll assume the absolute worst. Every. Single. KWH. Is. Paid. It is still going to be about 1/10 the cost of gas. We're going to focus on the low end here. The people holding out 10 years per car. The people buying new cars every 4 years... with these numbers, plus the incentives, there is no argument.
On the other side, that 10% cost knocks the gas savings down to $36k. In Ontario, the federal subsidy bumps that back up $41k. Then, add in the cost of a budget car. Say $15k. You're at $56k. In short, what you're already spending + what you'd save on gas is already equal to the MSRP of a standard range Tesla Model 3. And there are cheaper EVs out there with more than enough range to get the commute done.
And then on top of that is the savings in maintenance, and the savings from additional miles. And yes, plenty of EVs have packed on more than 400K KMs with considerably little maintenance.
And hey! Can't finance an EV? Hybrids and PHEVs are good deals too.
3. Air Pollution
This is the same but different from the environmental one. This time, we're talking more about how ICE vehicles create smog. The emissions are bad for tourism, and your health. So, even if the world isn't trying to kill us because of our carbon addition... the smog we created is. Increasing our adoption isn't saving anyone.
4. Diversification
Oil is a notoriously fickle commodity. Even with demand rising it is not keeping pace with production, oil companies invest tons of money each year to protect their bottom line. And they do this by improving efficiency. Which in turn results in more rigs being shut down every year, despite production increases.
Climate change or not, jobs are disappearing. And, the rapid outflux of businesses poses a very real challenge to economies the world over. Support of alternative energy sources would create investment in areas which are more stable. And in areas which require new solutions and can still be competitive in a way which creates more jobs and money.
5. Competition
Lets not pretend that whether or not solar or some other energy is able to replace oil entirely that the world isn't diversifying already.
Without investments which align with where the markets are heading, countries which stick to industries which are doomed to decline eventually, if not be eradicated then when the end is no longer avoidable, those countries will lose their place in the global economy. And that will hit a lot harder.
6. Resources are Limited
This shouldn't need to be said. But, oil is a finite resource. Some estimates from Oil company executives put us at 100-200 years away from the hard end of all oil. All oil! Let that sink in. Not every region is equally endowed with oil.
That means that there are reasonable odds that people are being born today that will see the day when their country becomes barren in terms of oil production.
Like the competition problem. The impact the economy and to real people working in that industry will be MUCH harder if you simply show up one day and your entire industry is out of business in your country.
None of the above points require you to believe that rising sea levels or temperatures are caused by burning fossil fuels. And some of those points hit even closer to home than climate change for a lot of people.
So, I am concerned that the narrative seems to stray eternally to climate change and that the average person is doing nothing about it.
Average people work in the oil industries. Their own industry is actively reducing their work force. And one day the wells will dry up. And if your country isn't a hub for what replaces it, you'll be SoL for even getting into an adjacent industry.
Commuters are average people. Maybe they don't think about how much they spend on gas or maintenance annually.
And sure, no one has a perfect answer to how all of this CO2 is affecting Earth that will satisfy everyone. But, the air pollution can still kill you. And if you're a climate denier and you're wrong, you have a lot more to lose than if you were to swing to other side and end up wrong.
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