Pixel Watch Thoughts
Well, it is clear that Google has something planned. The purchase of FitBit really closes up any uncertainty there. But, the questions are around what they have planned and how viable it is.
Many compare this to Microsoft's purchase of Nokia.
Frankly, it is too early to be sure how this will pan out.
I maintain that the Microsoft/Nokia thing was scuttled more by a change of CEO and a few bad ideas than there being anything inherently wrong with the deal. But, that is another story.
Though, that story does make for some interesting arguments regarding the similarities and differences between the two transactions.
Firstly, I think a lot rides on leadership backing the acquisition, and that leadership remaining stable. When Nadella took over, writing off Nokia was one of his first moves, with killing off Windows Phone coming not long after. As a new CEO, I think Nadella wanted to carve out a name for himself, and didn't want to run the risk of being associated with what had a high probability of failure.
As long as there isn't a major leadership shakeup, there is no reason to believe that Google won't hold out longer in trying to make the purchase work for them. And that is assuming that there isn't an ulterior motive or that their first new project under this partnership is a failure.
Remember that FitBit is older than Apple Watch. A key thing Google may be getting out of this is access to patents. It could enforce those patents against competition more aggressively than FitBit did, or more likely, it could make them freely available to devices running WearOS. Which in turn might lower the barrier to entry, or enable more cost effective devices.
Undoubtedly Google will also release some new hardware. Many have questioned their ability to challenge Apple, but honestly, there is nothing to challenge. Their biggest competitor is actually Samsung. Apple Watch only works with iPhone. And people who own an iPhone and are willing to fork out $300+ for a smart watch already own an Apple Watch. None of them are waiting around for a Pixel branded watch.
Another interesting thing is timing. I've recently been seeing the rumours piling up on the Snapdragon 3300. An SoC which is supposedly being almost purpose built for WearOS and will effectively yield 5 years worth of updates over its predecessor.
I don't think the timing is a coincidence. I have few doubts that such a processor would be designed without WearOS in mind. And while the performance claims may be unsubstantiated, a newer, faster, more efficient processor is definitely one of the key elements to success. Even if it doesn't yield the level of battery life promised by some competitors.
People sitting there and arguing that even the Snapdragon 3300 isn't likely to give it the amount of life a user gets out of an Apple Watch. But they forget... people bought the original Apple Watch in decent enough numbers and it had worse battery life than projections have for this new chipset. If smart watches were totally ubiquitous and every buyer was ACTUALLY going to compare the two, then they might have a point. But none of those things are the case.
That being said, I'm not exactly predicting a Google success story here. I'm just not as pessimistic about it as others.
If the patent thing holds true, then Google may pave the way for an uptick in adoption which might give them the clout to demand better from companies like Snapdragon to possibly enable them to catch up to Apple. And that could play out even if their hardware sales ambitions fizzle.
I also wouldn't past them to be working on something more "ambient computing" related than a traditional smart watch. Think something like the low energy chips FitBit uses today combined Neural Core or the likes.
I'll agree, my short term bet is on nothing major coming out of the hardware for the next 2-5 years. But, where it sounds like some of these articles are 100% certain of failure I'm really only like 51% sure.
Personally, I think smart watches have proven that they aren't the next big thing. And I think that opens up Google to innovate with some less demanding applications of the form factor.
Many compare this to Microsoft's purchase of Nokia.
Frankly, it is too early to be sure how this will pan out.
I maintain that the Microsoft/Nokia thing was scuttled more by a change of CEO and a few bad ideas than there being anything inherently wrong with the deal. But, that is another story.
Though, that story does make for some interesting arguments regarding the similarities and differences between the two transactions.
Firstly, I think a lot rides on leadership backing the acquisition, and that leadership remaining stable. When Nadella took over, writing off Nokia was one of his first moves, with killing off Windows Phone coming not long after. As a new CEO, I think Nadella wanted to carve out a name for himself, and didn't want to run the risk of being associated with what had a high probability of failure.
As long as there isn't a major leadership shakeup, there is no reason to believe that Google won't hold out longer in trying to make the purchase work for them. And that is assuming that there isn't an ulterior motive or that their first new project under this partnership is a failure.
Remember that FitBit is older than Apple Watch. A key thing Google may be getting out of this is access to patents. It could enforce those patents against competition more aggressively than FitBit did, or more likely, it could make them freely available to devices running WearOS. Which in turn might lower the barrier to entry, or enable more cost effective devices.
Undoubtedly Google will also release some new hardware. Many have questioned their ability to challenge Apple, but honestly, there is nothing to challenge. Their biggest competitor is actually Samsung. Apple Watch only works with iPhone. And people who own an iPhone and are willing to fork out $300+ for a smart watch already own an Apple Watch. None of them are waiting around for a Pixel branded watch.
Another interesting thing is timing. I've recently been seeing the rumours piling up on the Snapdragon 3300. An SoC which is supposedly being almost purpose built for WearOS and will effectively yield 5 years worth of updates over its predecessor.
I don't think the timing is a coincidence. I have few doubts that such a processor would be designed without WearOS in mind. And while the performance claims may be unsubstantiated, a newer, faster, more efficient processor is definitely one of the key elements to success. Even if it doesn't yield the level of battery life promised by some competitors.
People sitting there and arguing that even the Snapdragon 3300 isn't likely to give it the amount of life a user gets out of an Apple Watch. But they forget... people bought the original Apple Watch in decent enough numbers and it had worse battery life than projections have for this new chipset. If smart watches were totally ubiquitous and every buyer was ACTUALLY going to compare the two, then they might have a point. But none of those things are the case.
That being said, I'm not exactly predicting a Google success story here. I'm just not as pessimistic about it as others.
If the patent thing holds true, then Google may pave the way for an uptick in adoption which might give them the clout to demand better from companies like Snapdragon to possibly enable them to catch up to Apple. And that could play out even if their hardware sales ambitions fizzle.
I also wouldn't past them to be working on something more "ambient computing" related than a traditional smart watch. Think something like the low energy chips FitBit uses today combined Neural Core or the likes.
I'll agree, my short term bet is on nothing major coming out of the hardware for the next 2-5 years. But, where it sounds like some of these articles are 100% certain of failure I'm really only like 51% sure.
Personally, I think smart watches have proven that they aren't the next big thing. And I think that opens up Google to innovate with some less demanding applications of the form factor.
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