Are PHEVs Doomed?
Been reading a lot of articles today which say that PHEVs are hitting their stride just in time to die. But, I don't think PHEVs are anywhere near death. In fact, I think PHEVs are just the herald of the death of the Hybrid.
The summary is; PHEVs are more dynamic than Hybrids with more ways to grow, electric infrastructure isn't there yet, costs aren't down yet, some people will always need a transition vehicle, and variety.
The first point on being dynamic is pretty obvious. PHEVs have two means of powering a car. Those can be coupled in unlimited combinations. You can have larger or more electric motors paired with larger or smaller gas engines and all of that paired with varying battery capacity. They benefit almost equally from any innovation in EV technology. And there are numerous ways to tune those engines.
I predict that as battery prices go down and technology allows us to make them lighter and smaller, that we'll start seeing normal hybrids disappear, only to be replaced by PHEVs. Not by EVs. Though, those will likely still exist, and in increasing quantity and variety.
And that point speaks to the second point I made. Infrastructure. Being able to charge at home is great. But it isn't enough to cover all cases. Unless we get up to around 2000km in range, and get that into a mainstream vehicle at a mainstream price tag, people taking longer trips will need somewhere else to charge.
The current infrastructure can't handle much more than the current market saturation of EVs. Hybrids and PHEVs offer their owners gas as an alternative to quick, readily available charge stations. And, I see that being a problem for at least the next 10 years, and probably more like 20. But, I don't see hybrids lasting that long. I figure in 2-5 years time, battery technology will be such that normal hybrids will lack appeal to most buyers.
Basically, imagine a PHEV with 100-200KM range with motors powerful enough to run the car at highway speeds. The gas tank could be shrunk as well to provide 400-600kms of additional range. The gas tank could be made larger or even smaller for different price points or markets. The point really is more around battery size and range for the cost.
Electric motors are cheaper and simpler than gas ones. It is the batteries which are problem. They are large, heavy and expensive. When you combine infrastructure with charge times you start to realize that we're a long way away from convincing everyone to abandon gas. So, as EVs become better able to squeeze more range out of ever cheaper batteries in ever shrinking spaces so too will PHEVs and Hybrids.
But, at some point (and we're fairly near it now) there will be no cost benefit to building a normal hybrid at all. Battery size and cost along with electric motor costs will eventually shrink to a point where it makes more sense to shift increasingly more work to the electric motor and go with increasingly smaller and cheaper gas engines instead.
The closer we get to a 200km PHEV, the closer we get to daily zero emissions.
That was a lot but it also wrapped in the cost debate. Which brings us to acceptance and variety. Right now, EVs are pretty much restricted to cars. Even the Kona and Niro aren't REALLY SUVs. You're not going to convince someone who wants or needs to buy a pickup truck to buy a Model 3 instead. And, even once we get to that point, many people would still feel more comfortable with a vehicle which can ease them in.
A hybrid doesn't really ease someone in to an electric vehicle. You're unlikely to ever get an all EV trip on a hybrid. They aren't meant to run that way. And, like I said, they may not even last long enough to be an option.
A PHEV however CAN be an EV with a gas backup. It allows people new to the idea to drive electric without having to worry about how it is different from a gas engine. Because, if the range doesn't work out, a gas engine kicks in. It allows potential future EV drivers to evaluate just how well a plug-in vehicle works for them. Lets them test the infrastructure. And, when it fails them, they still get better mileage and save money.
The summary is; PHEVs are more dynamic than Hybrids with more ways to grow, electric infrastructure isn't there yet, costs aren't down yet, some people will always need a transition vehicle, and variety.
The first point on being dynamic is pretty obvious. PHEVs have two means of powering a car. Those can be coupled in unlimited combinations. You can have larger or more electric motors paired with larger or smaller gas engines and all of that paired with varying battery capacity. They benefit almost equally from any innovation in EV technology. And there are numerous ways to tune those engines.
I predict that as battery prices go down and technology allows us to make them lighter and smaller, that we'll start seeing normal hybrids disappear, only to be replaced by PHEVs. Not by EVs. Though, those will likely still exist, and in increasing quantity and variety.
And that point speaks to the second point I made. Infrastructure. Being able to charge at home is great. But it isn't enough to cover all cases. Unless we get up to around 2000km in range, and get that into a mainstream vehicle at a mainstream price tag, people taking longer trips will need somewhere else to charge.
The current infrastructure can't handle much more than the current market saturation of EVs. Hybrids and PHEVs offer their owners gas as an alternative to quick, readily available charge stations. And, I see that being a problem for at least the next 10 years, and probably more like 20. But, I don't see hybrids lasting that long. I figure in 2-5 years time, battery technology will be such that normal hybrids will lack appeal to most buyers.
Basically, imagine a PHEV with 100-200KM range with motors powerful enough to run the car at highway speeds. The gas tank could be shrunk as well to provide 400-600kms of additional range. The gas tank could be made larger or even smaller for different price points or markets. The point really is more around battery size and range for the cost.
Electric motors are cheaper and simpler than gas ones. It is the batteries which are problem. They are large, heavy and expensive. When you combine infrastructure with charge times you start to realize that we're a long way away from convincing everyone to abandon gas. So, as EVs become better able to squeeze more range out of ever cheaper batteries in ever shrinking spaces so too will PHEVs and Hybrids.
But, at some point (and we're fairly near it now) there will be no cost benefit to building a normal hybrid at all. Battery size and cost along with electric motor costs will eventually shrink to a point where it makes more sense to shift increasingly more work to the electric motor and go with increasingly smaller and cheaper gas engines instead.
The closer we get to a 200km PHEV, the closer we get to daily zero emissions.
That was a lot but it also wrapped in the cost debate. Which brings us to acceptance and variety. Right now, EVs are pretty much restricted to cars. Even the Kona and Niro aren't REALLY SUVs. You're not going to convince someone who wants or needs to buy a pickup truck to buy a Model 3 instead. And, even once we get to that point, many people would still feel more comfortable with a vehicle which can ease them in.
A hybrid doesn't really ease someone in to an electric vehicle. You're unlikely to ever get an all EV trip on a hybrid. They aren't meant to run that way. And, like I said, they may not even last long enough to be an option.
A PHEV however CAN be an EV with a gas backup. It allows people new to the idea to drive electric without having to worry about how it is different from a gas engine. Because, if the range doesn't work out, a gas engine kicks in. It allows potential future EV drivers to evaluate just how well a plug-in vehicle works for them. Lets them test the infrastructure. And, when it fails them, they still get better mileage and save money.
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