Pixel 4 Cost Predictions
While there are already some leaks out there suggesting prices for some markets, and they are suggesting a more expensive phone, I think that is likely true. And perhaps even more so in some markets.
Personally, I don't think Google is expecting to sell massive numbers of Pixel 4 and Pixel 4 XL.
Google sealed it's fate, when it released the Pixel 3a. Just as Apple did when they released cheaper lines of iPhones. Though, at least it seems like they won't repeat the Lumia mistake.
You can't kill the hero phone.
It doesn't save the company through direct sales. But, hardware divisions die without them.
Hero phones create buzz. But, well executed mid-range phones like the Pixel 3a are what generate sales. From all I've read, aside from a few niche features, most people wouldn't be disappointed if they had skipped the Pixel 2 and went to the 3a. In fact, many wouldn't lose any sleep even if they had bought the 3a over the full blown 3.
That isn't to say that sacrifices weren't made to get to that lower price point. Just that Google made some very good choices on where the costs were cut. And, the reports seem to indicate that this worked out very well indeed for Google. To the point where, outside of the current epic price cut, there would be no compelling to reason for the average person to buy the 3 over the 3a. Given the deep price cuts at the moment, that judgment is temporarily suspended.
This makes Google's life very easy. They can dump all the tech they want into the Pixel 4. They can charge any iPhone-esque price they want. And the die hard fans will still buy it. Just as the die hard fans continue to buy the newest and best iPhones. Then, half a year down the road, Google will cut the most luxurious features, find an adequate mid-range SoC, scale back the materials and perhaps display, and sell a crap load of cheaper Pixel 4a's.
In short, selling hero phones is a shitty business. You cram bleeding edge tech into them. Can't keep up with demand while they're hot. Can't predict demand when they're not. And thus need to sacrifice margins to keep up sales. Unless, it isn't your only line and you don't plan to make the big money there. In those cases, you're free to keep your margins and temper your expectations on sales.
That is what I think the Pixel 4 will be. A phone which could in CAD creep into the $1100 for a base model range, and up to $1400 for a fully spec'd model. Whereas the 4a when it is finally released will probably command $600-ish. Nearly half.
Google has cracked the code I spoke to before when Microsoft botched Lumia sales. Well, Microsoft also screwed up the hardware aspect. But, bigger than that is screwing up the positioning.
The 3a would have been a flop without the 3. People expected the full blown 3 to deliver. So, big blogs and YouTube channels reviewed the crap out of it. The camera was seriously tested against the competitors over and over again. The features people cared about were compared out in public. The phone was seen to win over big names in many areas.
And then the 3a was released. The naming that says it is related to the behemoth Pixel 3 and 3XL. The promise that the camera was as good. That the services and experience were as good. That allowed people to take the 3a line up seriously. I still don't see anywhere near as many reviews on the 3a. Despite the fact that is clearly out sold the crap out of the camera that made it popular. The media engine cares very little for mid range phones.
If coverage were a reflection of sales success, the 3a would be talked about far more than the main line up.
The hero phones have more to justify with their price tags. They have more features. And better specs. In some senses it does make sense that they get covered more. No one would be surprised if the iPhone 11 out performed the Pixel 3a. And few would care if the 3a out performed the iPhone 11. Sure, people seem psyched about areas like photography where the 3a could beat out more expensive iPhones. But, the people dropping that kind of money on a phone aren't going to be seen dead with a mid-range device.
So, to repeat. I think Google has realized this. The rumours peg the Pixel 4 as being more ambitious hardware wise. And, Google has never be known to avoid passing along the costs to their customers. The Pixel 4 will likely be notably more expensive than the Pixel 3. And Google likely doesn't care if you think it is too expensive. They are really betting the farm on how the perception of the Pixel 4 drives sales of the 4a when it arrives.
I don't expect both to arrive at once either.
Personally, I don't think Google is expecting to sell massive numbers of Pixel 4 and Pixel 4 XL.
Google sealed it's fate, when it released the Pixel 3a. Just as Apple did when they released cheaper lines of iPhones. Though, at least it seems like they won't repeat the Lumia mistake.
You can't kill the hero phone.
It doesn't save the company through direct sales. But, hardware divisions die without them.
Hero phones create buzz. But, well executed mid-range phones like the Pixel 3a are what generate sales. From all I've read, aside from a few niche features, most people wouldn't be disappointed if they had skipped the Pixel 2 and went to the 3a. In fact, many wouldn't lose any sleep even if they had bought the 3a over the full blown 3.
That isn't to say that sacrifices weren't made to get to that lower price point. Just that Google made some very good choices on where the costs were cut. And, the reports seem to indicate that this worked out very well indeed for Google. To the point where, outside of the current epic price cut, there would be no compelling to reason for the average person to buy the 3 over the 3a. Given the deep price cuts at the moment, that judgment is temporarily suspended.
This makes Google's life very easy. They can dump all the tech they want into the Pixel 4. They can charge any iPhone-esque price they want. And the die hard fans will still buy it. Just as the die hard fans continue to buy the newest and best iPhones. Then, half a year down the road, Google will cut the most luxurious features, find an adequate mid-range SoC, scale back the materials and perhaps display, and sell a crap load of cheaper Pixel 4a's.
In short, selling hero phones is a shitty business. You cram bleeding edge tech into them. Can't keep up with demand while they're hot. Can't predict demand when they're not. And thus need to sacrifice margins to keep up sales. Unless, it isn't your only line and you don't plan to make the big money there. In those cases, you're free to keep your margins and temper your expectations on sales.
That is what I think the Pixel 4 will be. A phone which could in CAD creep into the $1100 for a base model range, and up to $1400 for a fully spec'd model. Whereas the 4a when it is finally released will probably command $600-ish. Nearly half.
Google has cracked the code I spoke to before when Microsoft botched Lumia sales. Well, Microsoft also screwed up the hardware aspect. But, bigger than that is screwing up the positioning.
The 3a would have been a flop without the 3. People expected the full blown 3 to deliver. So, big blogs and YouTube channels reviewed the crap out of it. The camera was seriously tested against the competitors over and over again. The features people cared about were compared out in public. The phone was seen to win over big names in many areas.
And then the 3a was released. The naming that says it is related to the behemoth Pixel 3 and 3XL. The promise that the camera was as good. That the services and experience were as good. That allowed people to take the 3a line up seriously. I still don't see anywhere near as many reviews on the 3a. Despite the fact that is clearly out sold the crap out of the camera that made it popular. The media engine cares very little for mid range phones.
If coverage were a reflection of sales success, the 3a would be talked about far more than the main line up.
The hero phones have more to justify with their price tags. They have more features. And better specs. In some senses it does make sense that they get covered more. No one would be surprised if the iPhone 11 out performed the Pixel 3a. And few would care if the 3a out performed the iPhone 11. Sure, people seem psyched about areas like photography where the 3a could beat out more expensive iPhones. But, the people dropping that kind of money on a phone aren't going to be seen dead with a mid-range device.
So, to repeat. I think Google has realized this. The rumours peg the Pixel 4 as being more ambitious hardware wise. And, Google has never be known to avoid passing along the costs to their customers. The Pixel 4 will likely be notably more expensive than the Pixel 3. And Google likely doesn't care if you think it is too expensive. They are really betting the farm on how the perception of the Pixel 4 drives sales of the 4a when it arrives.
I don't expect both to arrive at once either.
Comments
Post a Comment