Electric Vehicles
Been considering going electric lately. And, as I look around, I can't help but feel the industry is headed in the wrong direction. Some of this is bad timing. And some of this is the consumer mindset.
In summary, as I was looking at the options I had a few different sets of criteria I would accept. And somehow, I largely struck out on all of them.
Here are those criteria:
The first group, I'll call the daily driver. If I can get an EV affordably enough, then I can justify renting for the other times I need to go further or transport something larger. And, like most people, my daily traffic isn't all that crazy. With batteries being the bulk of the cost, and 400+kms range vehicles coming in at $45k this year, and EVs being a not particularly new thing... I expected it to not be unreasonably to find shorter range cars for cheap.
Well, I was wrong on that. Basically, the shortest range EVs are just older generation cars, and they really haven't seen any price drops. If any pressure existed to do so, they seem to simply eliminate that model rather than drop the price.
I'll jump to the other end. The car replacement EV. For me, a $45k car is "affordable". Meaning, I could make it happen if I felt truly compelled. But, it is on the extreme edge of my budget. Any such car would need to be a viable replacement for my current car in all scenarios. Even after government incentives and cheaper fuel costs, at best I'm breaking even. So, it needs to be good enough that I'd only rent in situations I'd already rent. And even saying 600kms of battery isn't REALLY sufficient. My current vehicle goes that far and I can find far more places to refuel far cheaper.
It really is just "almost there". A few more years, and either a couple hundred KMs more, or a lower price tag (or both) and I'm in on the total replacement EV.
Which brings me to the final segment. PHEVs. Basically, everything I look at says that this is where most sales should be. But, there are fewer models here than either hybrids or EVs. They are drastically cheaper than pure EVs. Done right, they can offer pure electric range for most short daily trips. And they can go the distance with the convenience of traditional gas top ups.
But, the lack of availability means there is 1 car available in that range. And, apparently, it can't keep the gas off under heavy acceleration or when heating or cooling are needed. In short, I'm not really convinced that in Ottawa where the summers are brutal and humid and the winters are cold and frigid, that it would really be any better for us than a hybrid. But, I have read of PHEVs that CAN do these things. They just happen to all be either discontinued or not available here.
Here is the crazy thing though. The problem with hybrids is that while they are better than ICE cars, the efficiencies of ICE cars has closed the gap a lot. They are maybe twice as good. And, EVs are too expensive and people fear the range issues.
A PHEV that can run truly on pure electric for even as little as 20-50kms and charge that capacity in under 12 hours off a standard North American outlet could eliminate most people's daily gas consumption by 100%. Sure, commuters may need more range. But, they don't need 400kms for their daily activities. 100kms if they can charge at work would probably cure 90% of commuters, and probably 95%+ of all daily drivers.
In short, I think pure hybrids are a waste of battery tech. That category should be eliminated and replaced by PHEVs. And ideally those PHEVs would have options on battery size for that all electric mode. Though, even if the charge isn't enough for your daily use. Something like, at least 50kms would make a decent chunk of most people's daily drive emissions free, while making the other chunk running at hybrid levels.
On the pure EV front, long range vehicles are great. But, Tesla's inability to sell the base Model 3 at retail even with their own dedicated battery facilities says a lot about the present viability of selling those at mainstream price points. I have no issue with a 400+km Kona selling for $45k CAD. But, given that batteries are probably the bulk of that cost... it seems like they might be able to squeak out a car with a quarter the range at half the cost.
At the end of the day, at the prices these things are going out at... they aren't getting traction because they're more expensive than the ICE version which both goes further AND takes less time to get back on the road. And, as the range goes up as the costs come down, it gets harder for me to accept the argument that they can't deliver such a vehicle. It seems brutally clear to me that they can.
It also seems responsible to invest more in both PHEVs and low range EVs for another reason. Battery tech needs to change. Currently materials are already projected to cause production issues in the near future. From a sustainability standpoint, we're already at a point where we need to be actively seeking and investing in something new. Which means we shouldn't be increasing density so blindly.
But, those are just my thoughts.
In summary, as I was looking at the options I had a few different sets of criteria I would accept. And somehow, I largely struck out on all of them.
Here are those criteria:
- An affordable all electric vehicle with a low range at a low price (75-150kms of range for $25k CAD or less)
- An PHEV with as little as 20kms of range, but could run purely EV for those 20kms, could run reliably for 600kms+ on hybrid mode and cost $35k or less.
- An all electric vehicle with a range of 600kms for $45k or less.
The first group, I'll call the daily driver. If I can get an EV affordably enough, then I can justify renting for the other times I need to go further or transport something larger. And, like most people, my daily traffic isn't all that crazy. With batteries being the bulk of the cost, and 400+kms range vehicles coming in at $45k this year, and EVs being a not particularly new thing... I expected it to not be unreasonably to find shorter range cars for cheap.
Well, I was wrong on that. Basically, the shortest range EVs are just older generation cars, and they really haven't seen any price drops. If any pressure existed to do so, they seem to simply eliminate that model rather than drop the price.
I'll jump to the other end. The car replacement EV. For me, a $45k car is "affordable". Meaning, I could make it happen if I felt truly compelled. But, it is on the extreme edge of my budget. Any such car would need to be a viable replacement for my current car in all scenarios. Even after government incentives and cheaper fuel costs, at best I'm breaking even. So, it needs to be good enough that I'd only rent in situations I'd already rent. And even saying 600kms of battery isn't REALLY sufficient. My current vehicle goes that far and I can find far more places to refuel far cheaper.
It really is just "almost there". A few more years, and either a couple hundred KMs more, or a lower price tag (or both) and I'm in on the total replacement EV.
Which brings me to the final segment. PHEVs. Basically, everything I look at says that this is where most sales should be. But, there are fewer models here than either hybrids or EVs. They are drastically cheaper than pure EVs. Done right, they can offer pure electric range for most short daily trips. And they can go the distance with the convenience of traditional gas top ups.
But, the lack of availability means there is 1 car available in that range. And, apparently, it can't keep the gas off under heavy acceleration or when heating or cooling are needed. In short, I'm not really convinced that in Ottawa where the summers are brutal and humid and the winters are cold and frigid, that it would really be any better for us than a hybrid. But, I have read of PHEVs that CAN do these things. They just happen to all be either discontinued or not available here.
Here is the crazy thing though. The problem with hybrids is that while they are better than ICE cars, the efficiencies of ICE cars has closed the gap a lot. They are maybe twice as good. And, EVs are too expensive and people fear the range issues.
A PHEV that can run truly on pure electric for even as little as 20-50kms and charge that capacity in under 12 hours off a standard North American outlet could eliminate most people's daily gas consumption by 100%. Sure, commuters may need more range. But, they don't need 400kms for their daily activities. 100kms if they can charge at work would probably cure 90% of commuters, and probably 95%+ of all daily drivers.
In short, I think pure hybrids are a waste of battery tech. That category should be eliminated and replaced by PHEVs. And ideally those PHEVs would have options on battery size for that all electric mode. Though, even if the charge isn't enough for your daily use. Something like, at least 50kms would make a decent chunk of most people's daily drive emissions free, while making the other chunk running at hybrid levels.
On the pure EV front, long range vehicles are great. But, Tesla's inability to sell the base Model 3 at retail even with their own dedicated battery facilities says a lot about the present viability of selling those at mainstream price points. I have no issue with a 400+km Kona selling for $45k CAD. But, given that batteries are probably the bulk of that cost... it seems like they might be able to squeak out a car with a quarter the range at half the cost.
At the end of the day, at the prices these things are going out at... they aren't getting traction because they're more expensive than the ICE version which both goes further AND takes less time to get back on the road. And, as the range goes up as the costs come down, it gets harder for me to accept the argument that they can't deliver such a vehicle. It seems brutally clear to me that they can.
It also seems responsible to invest more in both PHEVs and low range EVs for another reason. Battery tech needs to change. Currently materials are already projected to cause production issues in the near future. From a sustainability standpoint, we're already at a point where we need to be actively seeking and investing in something new. Which means we shouldn't be increasing density so blindly.
But, those are just my thoughts.
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