Mid Term Election Thoughts
Personally, while I'm sure many are very happy with the results, I think they paint a grim picture for the US and like minded countries (one of which I am a citizen of).
Sure, the Democrats retook the House and even denied a great deal of opportunity for Republicans to expand their influence in the Senate. Yes, they gained seats in the Senate. But, by all accounts they should have taken more.
All of this being said, the outcome isn't that far fetched, or a sign of a change of heart in many Americans. In fact, if anything, it is a sign that feelings have solidified.
Had the democrats taken a huge number of unexpected wins by huge margins it would be one thing. But, in many cases they won where they were expected to win. And won where they weren't expected to win by razor thin margins.
The reality has always been that people that are more eager to vote against something than for something. As a result, those narrow wins... likely don't even represent to will of the majority. They just represent the majority of voters. And, where Republicans were defeated by narrow margins in red states, it almost definitely boiled down to there being fewer Democrats who were willing to sit on their laurels.
This is the odd thing about democratic politics. Everyone KNOWS that elections aren't a true representation of how the people as a whole feel. We even know that most votes are votes of passion and are more about identity politics than platforms or their impact. There is no reason to hate to Democrats for being democrats or Republicans for being republicans. In most cases they couldn't even tell you what their parties real platform is. They'll rally behind a single topic or even just a slogan. All without knowing how that will impact them.
But, that isn't what I'm here to talk about.
The fact that the margins were generally so small in swing states or red states or even deep red states should be deeply troubling for Democrats. Their policy isn't going to appeal to those who fly the Republican colors. And things will simply reverse in the next election. They will be on the receiving end then of the wave of voters wanting to change the way things are, while their supporters are the ones resting on their laurels. And, with such small margins, things may swing widely back in favor of the other party.
I'm not at all surprised that the democrats first bill they plan to introduce revolves around voting rights. Don't get me wrong. I agree with the aims of the bill. But, I'm not fooled. If they thought it would help Republicans, they wouldn't care. Likewise, Republican voter reform often seeks to suppress votes. Not because they actually want to suppress votes. But, because they want policies which they believe will strengthen their position.
Basically, each party uses any power seized to promote the policies which they think give them the best chance to fend off the backlash of their victory over the other parties adherents.
Democrats simply happen to be the party for which, at the moment, fairer voting rights seem to support.
Canada, and Canadian mentality isn't all that different than Americans. Sure, we can take specific topics like gun control and come out on vastly different pages. But, by and large we're not that different. And our style of governance isn't that different. Here, the PCs play the part of the Republicans and the Liberals play the part of the Democrats. The PC party wants stricter immigration, less immigration, more deportation, easier access to guns, scrapping social programs, lower taxes on corporations and the wealthy. Liberals aim for the opposite.
We operate much the same as the US. We vote based on party rather than representative. Which, while against the way things were intended lines up with how the country and provinces are actually run. The party with the most seats has their leader as the figurehead. Only, that person isn't a figurehead, they really do direct party policy and they force their members to vote along party lines.
Which is why this is all bad news. We see much the same here. Trudeau will likely lose the next election to Andrew Scheer, and we'll squabble back and forth indefinitely.
I hope I'm wrong.
Sure, the Democrats retook the House and even denied a great deal of opportunity for Republicans to expand their influence in the Senate. Yes, they gained seats in the Senate. But, by all accounts they should have taken more.
All of this being said, the outcome isn't that far fetched, or a sign of a change of heart in many Americans. In fact, if anything, it is a sign that feelings have solidified.
Had the democrats taken a huge number of unexpected wins by huge margins it would be one thing. But, in many cases they won where they were expected to win. And won where they weren't expected to win by razor thin margins.
The reality has always been that people that are more eager to vote against something than for something. As a result, those narrow wins... likely don't even represent to will of the majority. They just represent the majority of voters. And, where Republicans were defeated by narrow margins in red states, it almost definitely boiled down to there being fewer Democrats who were willing to sit on their laurels.
This is the odd thing about democratic politics. Everyone KNOWS that elections aren't a true representation of how the people as a whole feel. We even know that most votes are votes of passion and are more about identity politics than platforms or their impact. There is no reason to hate to Democrats for being democrats or Republicans for being republicans. In most cases they couldn't even tell you what their parties real platform is. They'll rally behind a single topic or even just a slogan. All without knowing how that will impact them.
But, that isn't what I'm here to talk about.
The fact that the margins were generally so small in swing states or red states or even deep red states should be deeply troubling for Democrats. Their policy isn't going to appeal to those who fly the Republican colors. And things will simply reverse in the next election. They will be on the receiving end then of the wave of voters wanting to change the way things are, while their supporters are the ones resting on their laurels. And, with such small margins, things may swing widely back in favor of the other party.
I'm not at all surprised that the democrats first bill they plan to introduce revolves around voting rights. Don't get me wrong. I agree with the aims of the bill. But, I'm not fooled. If they thought it would help Republicans, they wouldn't care. Likewise, Republican voter reform often seeks to suppress votes. Not because they actually want to suppress votes. But, because they want policies which they believe will strengthen their position.
Basically, each party uses any power seized to promote the policies which they think give them the best chance to fend off the backlash of their victory over the other parties adherents.
Democrats simply happen to be the party for which, at the moment, fairer voting rights seem to support.
Canada, and Canadian mentality isn't all that different than Americans. Sure, we can take specific topics like gun control and come out on vastly different pages. But, by and large we're not that different. And our style of governance isn't that different. Here, the PCs play the part of the Republicans and the Liberals play the part of the Democrats. The PC party wants stricter immigration, less immigration, more deportation, easier access to guns, scrapping social programs, lower taxes on corporations and the wealthy. Liberals aim for the opposite.
We operate much the same as the US. We vote based on party rather than representative. Which, while against the way things were intended lines up with how the country and provinces are actually run. The party with the most seats has their leader as the figurehead. Only, that person isn't a figurehead, they really do direct party policy and they force their members to vote along party lines.
Which is why this is all bad news. We see much the same here. Trudeau will likely lose the next election to Andrew Scheer, and we'll squabble back and forth indefinitely.
I hope I'm wrong.
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