Fake Pixel 3 leak thoughts
One of the theories circulating around of late is that the Pixel 3XL leaks have all been intentional and that Google still has either 1 more surprise model, or that the XL's we've seen aren't the real deal.
This is a hard one for me to comment on. I know I won't be buying the XL regardless. But I still WANT it to be notch less. So, I am a bit biased regardless.
Where the theorists have a point is that the leaks have been HUGE. Designs leaking out months in advance. Phones spotted in the wild. Phones left in Uber's. Phone shipments stolen. For me, the weirdest of those is the phone shipments. Especially because the only device included in the leak is the controversial XL.
I mean, why was there a shipment of Pixel 3 XL's in Russia without the regular Pixel 3 this far ahead of release. I mean, this is already over a week since that leak. And we're still over 3 weeks away from the announcement. And that may just be announcing pre-orders, so still even more weeks ahead of devices actually landing in consumer hands. And I don't believe that the phones are being manufactured in Russia either. So, again, I don't even know why there would be a shipment of Pixel 3 XL's in Russia to be stolen in the first place. It seems like there should still be time to stock the supply chain later without risking this sort of loss this early on.
So yeah, the scale and frequency of the leaks is definitely suspicious. Also, the notch is so hideously large it almost sickens me.
But, honestly, all we're doing is making a massively unlikely event slightly less unlikely. In the grand scheme of things. It is still unlikely.
Now, I don't like the notch any more than more most. But, there are other hints that at least one Pixel 3 device will have a notch. The first is a fascination with copying Apple's designs. Pixel and Nexus phones just seem to have a penchant for looking like iPhones. Copying the notch would not really be that surprising. In fact, it would align very well their past moves. So too would the less expensive non-XL phone not having the notch. The other phones Apple release along with the iPhone X had no notch after all.
But, perhaps the most telling thing would be support for notches baked into Android Pie. The Pixel 3 XL wouldn't be the first Android device with a notch. Hell, the iPhone X wasn't even the first. The Essentials phone actually beat everyone to it. Which means I need to point out... it isn't like Android device makers have any need or even any want to have Google include support for it. They'll simply fork the OS and build their own support. And they already have. And they aren't likely to ever user Google's implementation.
So, who are the only people who are really likely to use Google's built-in notch support? People using "stock" Android. Which is pretty much just Pixel phones.
The other leaks like screen protectors and aren't necessarily leaks from Google themselves. And those don't indicate that the leaked phones are a fake. In fact, they support the validity.
The last piece of "evidence" is so called demands to take down certain videos which left only the ones which mocked the XL 3's design. We don't really know if the claims are true. And I certainly don't know the nature of the videos they were asked to take down. There are a myriad of reasons why other videos may have been left alone.
It is possible that there is a third model. I'd consider that more plausible than the leaked XL news being faked. But, I'd still consider it only slightly more likely than the other theory.
Firstly, none of the conspiracy theories do anything to strengthen the theory of a third phone. They are all centered around debunking the XL leaks with nothing to put in it's place.
Secondly, the non-XL leaks also exist and are more inline with the scale and frequency we'd expect. Which means, if that leaked, it is likely that the more hotly anticipated device also leaked, and leaked more. Which strengthens the argument that the Pixel 3 XL leaks are legitimate. But, if both of those leaked, it wouldn't make sense that absolutely nothing tangible has surfaced about this third device.
My bets would be, IF there is a third device, and I don't think that there is. That it will be a device scheduled for a later release date. That could explain why we haven't seen things like screen protector leaks, seen devices in the wild, caught images of it or intercepted shipments. It may not be far enough along in the process for those things to leak.
So, come the 9th, I expect Google to announce 2 phones. And I expect them to match what has leaked.
I'll be happy if I'm wrong and simultaneously unhappy about now having to choose between the 3 and 3XL. But I don't expect to be put in that situation.
This is a hard one for me to comment on. I know I won't be buying the XL regardless. But I still WANT it to be notch less. So, I am a bit biased regardless.
Where the theorists have a point is that the leaks have been HUGE. Designs leaking out months in advance. Phones spotted in the wild. Phones left in Uber's. Phone shipments stolen. For me, the weirdest of those is the phone shipments. Especially because the only device included in the leak is the controversial XL.
I mean, why was there a shipment of Pixel 3 XL's in Russia without the regular Pixel 3 this far ahead of release. I mean, this is already over a week since that leak. And we're still over 3 weeks away from the announcement. And that may just be announcing pre-orders, so still even more weeks ahead of devices actually landing in consumer hands. And I don't believe that the phones are being manufactured in Russia either. So, again, I don't even know why there would be a shipment of Pixel 3 XL's in Russia to be stolen in the first place. It seems like there should still be time to stock the supply chain later without risking this sort of loss this early on.
So yeah, the scale and frequency of the leaks is definitely suspicious. Also, the notch is so hideously large it almost sickens me.
But, honestly, all we're doing is making a massively unlikely event slightly less unlikely. In the grand scheme of things. It is still unlikely.
Now, I don't like the notch any more than more most. But, there are other hints that at least one Pixel 3 device will have a notch. The first is a fascination with copying Apple's designs. Pixel and Nexus phones just seem to have a penchant for looking like iPhones. Copying the notch would not really be that surprising. In fact, it would align very well their past moves. So too would the less expensive non-XL phone not having the notch. The other phones Apple release along with the iPhone X had no notch after all.
But, perhaps the most telling thing would be support for notches baked into Android Pie. The Pixel 3 XL wouldn't be the first Android device with a notch. Hell, the iPhone X wasn't even the first. The Essentials phone actually beat everyone to it. Which means I need to point out... it isn't like Android device makers have any need or even any want to have Google include support for it. They'll simply fork the OS and build their own support. And they already have. And they aren't likely to ever user Google's implementation.
So, who are the only people who are really likely to use Google's built-in notch support? People using "stock" Android. Which is pretty much just Pixel phones.
The other leaks like screen protectors and aren't necessarily leaks from Google themselves. And those don't indicate that the leaked phones are a fake. In fact, they support the validity.
The last piece of "evidence" is so called demands to take down certain videos which left only the ones which mocked the XL 3's design. We don't really know if the claims are true. And I certainly don't know the nature of the videos they were asked to take down. There are a myriad of reasons why other videos may have been left alone.
It is possible that there is a third model. I'd consider that more plausible than the leaked XL news being faked. But, I'd still consider it only slightly more likely than the other theory.
Firstly, none of the conspiracy theories do anything to strengthen the theory of a third phone. They are all centered around debunking the XL leaks with nothing to put in it's place.
Secondly, the non-XL leaks also exist and are more inline with the scale and frequency we'd expect. Which means, if that leaked, it is likely that the more hotly anticipated device also leaked, and leaked more. Which strengthens the argument that the Pixel 3 XL leaks are legitimate. But, if both of those leaked, it wouldn't make sense that absolutely nothing tangible has surfaced about this third device.
My bets would be, IF there is a third device, and I don't think that there is. That it will be a device scheduled for a later release date. That could explain why we haven't seen things like screen protector leaks, seen devices in the wild, caught images of it or intercepted shipments. It may not be far enough along in the process for those things to leak.
So, come the 9th, I expect Google to announce 2 phones. And I expect them to match what has leaked.
I'll be happy if I'm wrong and simultaneously unhappy about now having to choose between the 3 and 3XL. But I don't expect to be put in that situation.
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