World War 3 is here
Long ago I made a statement. Paraphrased it was something like "there won't be a WW3 in the foreseeable future, because global economics has too many countries too dependent on each other to risk such an action".
I would say I was partially wrong. Traditional war? Not likely. But, we seem to be in the beginning of a trade war. And, I'm not sure history will see it as much different. In the grand scheme of things there will be battle lines drawn and even lives lost. In a trade war, things will get more expensive for everyone. That will drive more people into poverty, which will ultimately end lives. I see no real reason to pretend that there is a distinction between conventional wars and trade wars if the scale gets large enough.
I also joked about the US, under Trump was risking their position as "the" global super power. At the time I had VERY jokingly suggested that Canada might take over the mantle. Now, I never really thought that was too viable of an outcome, but then, I didn't really think Trump would be dumb enough to jeopardize that (or at least, that he would be impeached by then if he was that dumb).
The problem for the US is simple. While the US may be one of, if not the largest consumer, they aren't larger than everyone else combined, and most countries already have numerous trade partners and allies. It is also CLEAR that the US is the instigator here. And the usual shit disturber countries like Russia and China are already against the US on this issue. It is hard to think of a country willing to side with the US in this matter.
And while that means suffering for most countries for some time to come. The reality is, if this keeps up, then the US is going to learn the hard way; their economy isn't a self-sufficient one and their buying power isn't enough to make everyone else accept one sided deals.
If this isn't resolved (or at least improved) in the next 2-4 months, then I think the US economy will collapse. Note, that doesn't mean that I think that their economy will collapse in 2-4 months, just that the death spiral will start then.
And that would be total shit for me, since, while I think Canada will have some buffers in place, our proximity and dependence on the US is higher than most other countries.
This is a very doom and gloom post. And honestly, I'm not sure how well founded my concerns are. The truth is, I haven't lived through war or trade wars. I have a decent enough understanding of economics to know that the US is playing a game of chicken with everyone else. I can't REALLY be sure where the collision point is. All I know is, if there is a collision, the US will take the brunt of the damage.
When you look at the economic climate, every other country which is a major economic power, has either directly retaliated, openly stated their disagreement or are rather historical enemies. These people can all band together to help each other get through the fallout. Many of these countries would be happy to see the US destroyed by it's own greed and ignorance. Others bear no particular ill-will but either can't afford to give into the way things are currently going or won't because it is wrong the nonetheless.
I live in North America. We may have a ton of exports. But they are generally the sorts of things regular people don't need. I don't need rolls of steel. I need the products made from the steel. I need food and clothes. I enjoy having access to electronics, etc... Go through your house, your fridge, etc... most of what you have, eat and use... comes from outside your country. The US and Canada are fairly similar in that respect. We export a lot of natural resources and import a lot of finished goods.
We don't export a lot of finished goods because labor here is expensive. So, even starting to make those things here won't make them cheaper, or even as expensive as they were before the tariffs. They'll STILL be more expensive. And, since other countries are slapping retaliatory tariffs on everything, there will be less demand for your exports. So your average person is left with less money which needs to be used to pay for more expensive things.
The world today, only runs on a global economy. The US can't rewind the clock. Even North Korea needs to smuggle goods in, and they are honestly VERY impressive at what they can produce domestically.
I would say I was partially wrong. Traditional war? Not likely. But, we seem to be in the beginning of a trade war. And, I'm not sure history will see it as much different. In the grand scheme of things there will be battle lines drawn and even lives lost. In a trade war, things will get more expensive for everyone. That will drive more people into poverty, which will ultimately end lives. I see no real reason to pretend that there is a distinction between conventional wars and trade wars if the scale gets large enough.
I also joked about the US, under Trump was risking their position as "the" global super power. At the time I had VERY jokingly suggested that Canada might take over the mantle. Now, I never really thought that was too viable of an outcome, but then, I didn't really think Trump would be dumb enough to jeopardize that (or at least, that he would be impeached by then if he was that dumb).
The problem for the US is simple. While the US may be one of, if not the largest consumer, they aren't larger than everyone else combined, and most countries already have numerous trade partners and allies. It is also CLEAR that the US is the instigator here. And the usual shit disturber countries like Russia and China are already against the US on this issue. It is hard to think of a country willing to side with the US in this matter.
And while that means suffering for most countries for some time to come. The reality is, if this keeps up, then the US is going to learn the hard way; their economy isn't a self-sufficient one and their buying power isn't enough to make everyone else accept one sided deals.
If this isn't resolved (or at least improved) in the next 2-4 months, then I think the US economy will collapse. Note, that doesn't mean that I think that their economy will collapse in 2-4 months, just that the death spiral will start then.
And that would be total shit for me, since, while I think Canada will have some buffers in place, our proximity and dependence on the US is higher than most other countries.
This is a very doom and gloom post. And honestly, I'm not sure how well founded my concerns are. The truth is, I haven't lived through war or trade wars. I have a decent enough understanding of economics to know that the US is playing a game of chicken with everyone else. I can't REALLY be sure where the collision point is. All I know is, if there is a collision, the US will take the brunt of the damage.
When you look at the economic climate, every other country which is a major economic power, has either directly retaliated, openly stated their disagreement or are rather historical enemies. These people can all band together to help each other get through the fallout. Many of these countries would be happy to see the US destroyed by it's own greed and ignorance. Others bear no particular ill-will but either can't afford to give into the way things are currently going or won't because it is wrong the nonetheless.
I live in North America. We may have a ton of exports. But they are generally the sorts of things regular people don't need. I don't need rolls of steel. I need the products made from the steel. I need food and clothes. I enjoy having access to electronics, etc... Go through your house, your fridge, etc... most of what you have, eat and use... comes from outside your country. The US and Canada are fairly similar in that respect. We export a lot of natural resources and import a lot of finished goods.
We don't export a lot of finished goods because labor here is expensive. So, even starting to make those things here won't make them cheaper, or even as expensive as they were before the tariffs. They'll STILL be more expensive. And, since other countries are slapping retaliatory tariffs on everything, there will be less demand for your exports. So your average person is left with less money which needs to be used to pay for more expensive things.
The world today, only runs on a global economy. The US can't rewind the clock. Even North Korea needs to smuggle goods in, and they are honestly VERY impressive at what they can produce domestically.
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