Ontario Election Thoughts
So, the Ontario election is coming up. I talk politics a lot more lately than I'd usually like to and I probably seem crazy and unfair to some. But, I wanted to provide some insight into my thinking. I'm starting from this site which is comparing the current party leaders. This isn't the only research I'll do before I vote. Nor, should it be your own either. But, I wanted to compare a little what I see in each category they've compared.
I'll be ranking each party in category between -1 and 10. (Because some of this shit is too insane for even a 0).
Deficits:
Basically, the only party with a complete plan is the Liberals. Granted, this plan largely stems from the fact that they needed to produce a budget, so I'm not giving them much for that. Waiting for 2024-2025 for a balanced budget doesn't sound great. And, I fully expect those timelines to slide. But, there is actually a plan. The NDP don't even know when they would produce a balanced budget and PCs don't even have a plan beyond vague promises.
I've give the Liberals a 3/10. The get points for having a complete plan.
NDPs get a 3/10. Their plan seems less wasteful, but not plans on when to return to a balanced budget.
PCs get -1/10. There is no plan. Worse, it provides vague promises which are likely not even possible. I'd go even further negative for the planned wasteful "outside audit". It is the Canadian equivalent of Clinton's email.
Taxes:
Fairly boring plan for the Liberals. NDP is planning a lot to bring in revenues, which means living would get more expensive. I dislike toying with the housing market. PCs plan to scrap the wage hike and replace it with something worse. But, I don't think the wage hike will solve anything. So I can't really penalize him much there. Corporate tax cuts of a measly percent will just mean less money into the government making his other ridiculous claims less sustainable. I'll give him points for the childcare program. Musing about removing that 15% tax is a rather big tinkering with the housing market. Here is a little murkier. 5/10 Liberals, they do nothing right or wrong really. 3/10 for NDP, it feels like punishing people for very little gain. And I'll say 5/10 for PCs they make some right decisions, but cancel them back out.
Hydro:
Well, this one is simple. 0/10 for Liberals. 5/10 for NDP, regaining control of the utility will provide the greatest ability to regulate and control electricity, but dropping time of use deserves docking points. PCs get -1/10. It is just a different flavor of the Liberal plan with the added idiocy of promising to fire a CEO.
Health:
I don't care much here. So, let's start at 5/10 for everyone and +/- from there. Liberals, super expensive -1, adding better drug and dental coverage +1. NDP get -1 for also being super expensive, and -1 for vague plans to resolve tough problems like wait time and under staffing. PCs, likely the most expensive -1, but hard to be sure due to a lack of details -1, I'll lump in the poor attempt to bring doctors back with the lack of details to be kind. So, Liberals 5/10, NDP 3/10, PC 3/10.
Marijuana:
0/10 Liberals. Implementation is so restrictive it might actually make things worse. NDP 7/10, they agree that wider availability is needed to curtail illegal production and distribution. And while I don't think it is needed, plans to protect lands is smart. 2/10 for PC. Privatizing it is a bit too wide open. It WILL be abused.
Education:
2/10 Liberals. Free full day daycare for pre-schoolers? Sounds awesome. And expensive. And un-necessary. NDP is WOWZA all over on this one. Retroactively forgive ALL student loans? Create 200k child care spaces? Where and how? I'm OK with ending standardized testing, but would love to know what will take it's place. It is a shitty implementation of an OK idea. The child care plan is awesome. I think... 2/10. PCs -1/10. For such a large part of our budget... a politician wants to dig his nose into the curriculum and that's it?
Environment/Energy:
6/10 Liberals. Nothing groundbreaking here, mostly neutral with some positives. NDP gets a 10/10 here. Using carbon tax money to help retrofit homes and reduce burden on those most heavily affected along with other environmental plans. PCs -1/10. Again, wish I hadn't limited myself to JUST -1 as the lowest. Every single bullet point is stupid.
Transportation:
4/10 Liberals. Boring, but expensive. Benefit not well conveyed. 4/10 NDP, much the same as Liberal plan with different specifics. 4/10 PC. Again, there is little mentioned here. It is mostly stupid but cutting aviation fuel taxes might help what is ridiculously priced travel option in Canada.
Liberals = 25pts, NDP = 37pts, PCs = 10pts.
This is out of a total of 80 pts... so as you can see... none of the parties REALLY "win". I was a bit shocked to find the NDP come out on top. Things would likely change if I weighted categories by personal value. And then further change again if I weighted based chance at actually winning the leadership.
NDP's probably offer the best for the long term of the province. Even without as thorough planning as the Liberals, what they propose will generate the most income from Marijuana. Has the best plans for carbon tax revenue. Doesn't go crazy except when it comes to education related planning.
I just don't think that they can actually win. I get why people hate Wynne. But Ford is worse in my opinion. There is a lot of Trump to his politics. It is a shame that Patrick Brown is gone as an option. In my mind it would have made the PCs the right option for me. So, I don't know how I'll vote in the end, but at present it feels like I'm torn between the devil we know and a candidate which doesn't have much hope in the NDP.
I'll be ranking each party in category between -1 and 10. (Because some of this shit is too insane for even a 0).
Deficits:
Basically, the only party with a complete plan is the Liberals. Granted, this plan largely stems from the fact that they needed to produce a budget, so I'm not giving them much for that. Waiting for 2024-2025 for a balanced budget doesn't sound great. And, I fully expect those timelines to slide. But, there is actually a plan. The NDP don't even know when they would produce a balanced budget and PCs don't even have a plan beyond vague promises.
I've give the Liberals a 3/10. The get points for having a complete plan.
NDPs get a 3/10. Their plan seems less wasteful, but not plans on when to return to a balanced budget.
PCs get -1/10. There is no plan. Worse, it provides vague promises which are likely not even possible. I'd go even further negative for the planned wasteful "outside audit". It is the Canadian equivalent of Clinton's email.
Taxes:
Fairly boring plan for the Liberals. NDP is planning a lot to bring in revenues, which means living would get more expensive. I dislike toying with the housing market. PCs plan to scrap the wage hike and replace it with something worse. But, I don't think the wage hike will solve anything. So I can't really penalize him much there. Corporate tax cuts of a measly percent will just mean less money into the government making his other ridiculous claims less sustainable. I'll give him points for the childcare program. Musing about removing that 15% tax is a rather big tinkering with the housing market. Here is a little murkier. 5/10 Liberals, they do nothing right or wrong really. 3/10 for NDP, it feels like punishing people for very little gain. And I'll say 5/10 for PCs they make some right decisions, but cancel them back out.
Hydro:
Well, this one is simple. 0/10 for Liberals. 5/10 for NDP, regaining control of the utility will provide the greatest ability to regulate and control electricity, but dropping time of use deserves docking points. PCs get -1/10. It is just a different flavor of the Liberal plan with the added idiocy of promising to fire a CEO.
Health:
I don't care much here. So, let's start at 5/10 for everyone and +/- from there. Liberals, super expensive -1, adding better drug and dental coverage +1. NDP get -1 for also being super expensive, and -1 for vague plans to resolve tough problems like wait time and under staffing. PCs, likely the most expensive -1, but hard to be sure due to a lack of details -1, I'll lump in the poor attempt to bring doctors back with the lack of details to be kind. So, Liberals 5/10, NDP 3/10, PC 3/10.
Marijuana:
0/10 Liberals. Implementation is so restrictive it might actually make things worse. NDP 7/10, they agree that wider availability is needed to curtail illegal production and distribution. And while I don't think it is needed, plans to protect lands is smart. 2/10 for PC. Privatizing it is a bit too wide open. It WILL be abused.
Education:
2/10 Liberals. Free full day daycare for pre-schoolers? Sounds awesome. And expensive. And un-necessary. NDP is WOWZA all over on this one. Retroactively forgive ALL student loans? Create 200k child care spaces? Where and how? I'm OK with ending standardized testing, but would love to know what will take it's place. It is a shitty implementation of an OK idea. The child care plan is awesome. I think... 2/10. PCs -1/10. For such a large part of our budget... a politician wants to dig his nose into the curriculum and that's it?
Environment/Energy:
6/10 Liberals. Nothing groundbreaking here, mostly neutral with some positives. NDP gets a 10/10 here. Using carbon tax money to help retrofit homes and reduce burden on those most heavily affected along with other environmental plans. PCs -1/10. Again, wish I hadn't limited myself to JUST -1 as the lowest. Every single bullet point is stupid.
Transportation:
4/10 Liberals. Boring, but expensive. Benefit not well conveyed. 4/10 NDP, much the same as Liberal plan with different specifics. 4/10 PC. Again, there is little mentioned here. It is mostly stupid but cutting aviation fuel taxes might help what is ridiculously priced travel option in Canada.
Liberals = 25pts, NDP = 37pts, PCs = 10pts.
This is out of a total of 80 pts... so as you can see... none of the parties REALLY "win". I was a bit shocked to find the NDP come out on top. Things would likely change if I weighted categories by personal value. And then further change again if I weighted based chance at actually winning the leadership.
NDP's probably offer the best for the long term of the province. Even without as thorough planning as the Liberals, what they propose will generate the most income from Marijuana. Has the best plans for carbon tax revenue. Doesn't go crazy except when it comes to education related planning.
I just don't think that they can actually win. I get why people hate Wynne. But Ford is worse in my opinion. There is a lot of Trump to his politics. It is a shame that Patrick Brown is gone as an option. In my mind it would have made the PCs the right option for me. So, I don't know how I'll vote in the end, but at present it feels like I'm torn between the devil we know and a candidate which doesn't have much hope in the NDP.
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