Would firing Mueller make things better or worse for Trump?
I watched Stephen Colbert's interview with James Comey. And near the end, Colbert asks if he believes that investigation would end if Trump fired Mueller and company. And the answer was basically, that even if he could stop it officially, it is unlikely that others wouldn't carry on the work.
What didn't strike me at the time was, and what should have been obvious, was that many people have likely reviewed at one point or another, everything which the Special Counsel has seen. It isn't just Mueller.
And Mueller, once fired, likely wouldn't be the cause of any major problems. I mean, let's face it, the guys reputation has been built around his honesty and integrity. And also, once fired, you can bet your ass his every action will be scrutinized to ensure he doesn't do anything he shouldn't. Like leaking his findings.
And the biggest problem for Trump could actually be leaks from those other people.
A formal investigation being underway gives people inside less reason to leak information or undertake investigations of their own. And, by all accounts it seems like Mueller is an honest and diligent individual. The fact that his investigation is ongoing and yielding charges against Trump associates, but nothing for now specifically against Trump tells me this; Mueller doesn't have a solid case against Trump personally, but he has enough information to keep going.
Given that charges have been laid against members of his campaign, it is fairly logical to believe that there is some evidence of things which REALLY don't look good for Trump. They are just not sufficient to guarantee a conviction. And let's be clear here. The bar is ASTRONOMICALLY high. Mueller likely won't bring anything forward against Trump personally unless it is 100% clear that the crime is serious enough and it isn't possible to argue a way out of it.
In fact, it would actually be quite surprising if this investigation yielded any charges against Trump. With a Republican controlled White House and a VERY highly publicized case under way, Mueller would likely choose to prioritize maintaining national stability over attempt to bring charges against a sitting president, unless the crimes are sever and the proof is undeniable.
So, if the special counsel likely isn't going to end up implicating Trump directly... how can it hurt to fire Mueller?
Simple, people aren't rational. They aren't generally lawyers. And they generally aren't all that smart. If information leaks, it won't be carefully scrutinized and only released for public consumption if anything it might allude to is provably true. It will, much more likely end up causing a huge stir. And a far bigger national uproar. Even if there is nothing behind the leaked information.
I know everyone has said it time and again. But, if Trump isn't guilty, he really IS best to let Mueller finish his investigation. NOTHING will look better to both Trump's base and critics than being officially exonerated by a person who Trump has painted as being on a "witch hunt". It will keep the information in-check and not give others a reason to leak.
Killing the investigation mid-stream will leave many hands in possession of documents related to what was being investigated. And, everyone involved likely thinks their work is important enough to protect. More than likely, something will leak. And there may be too many people to track to stop it.
If the investigation is wrapped up however, it will decrease the value of any information the special counsel's office had gathered. It has already been reviewed and followed to it's natural course. No one will feel like their important work is being suppressed. Far more people internal to the case will feel satisfied, making it far less likely anyone will leak anything, or if they do that it will do damage.
The more spontaneously and judiciously the investigation is terminated, the more likely those close to the case will feel like the truth is being suppressed and the more likely it will be that something truly damaging is revealed to the public.
The court of public opinion doesn't require a fair trial. It just requires salacious stories.
What didn't strike me at the time was, and what should have been obvious, was that many people have likely reviewed at one point or another, everything which the Special Counsel has seen. It isn't just Mueller.
And Mueller, once fired, likely wouldn't be the cause of any major problems. I mean, let's face it, the guys reputation has been built around his honesty and integrity. And also, once fired, you can bet your ass his every action will be scrutinized to ensure he doesn't do anything he shouldn't. Like leaking his findings.
And the biggest problem for Trump could actually be leaks from those other people.
A formal investigation being underway gives people inside less reason to leak information or undertake investigations of their own. And, by all accounts it seems like Mueller is an honest and diligent individual. The fact that his investigation is ongoing and yielding charges against Trump associates, but nothing for now specifically against Trump tells me this; Mueller doesn't have a solid case against Trump personally, but he has enough information to keep going.
Given that charges have been laid against members of his campaign, it is fairly logical to believe that there is some evidence of things which REALLY don't look good for Trump. They are just not sufficient to guarantee a conviction. And let's be clear here. The bar is ASTRONOMICALLY high. Mueller likely won't bring anything forward against Trump personally unless it is 100% clear that the crime is serious enough and it isn't possible to argue a way out of it.
In fact, it would actually be quite surprising if this investigation yielded any charges against Trump. With a Republican controlled White House and a VERY highly publicized case under way, Mueller would likely choose to prioritize maintaining national stability over attempt to bring charges against a sitting president, unless the crimes are sever and the proof is undeniable.
So, if the special counsel likely isn't going to end up implicating Trump directly... how can it hurt to fire Mueller?
Simple, people aren't rational. They aren't generally lawyers. And they generally aren't all that smart. If information leaks, it won't be carefully scrutinized and only released for public consumption if anything it might allude to is provably true. It will, much more likely end up causing a huge stir. And a far bigger national uproar. Even if there is nothing behind the leaked information.
I know everyone has said it time and again. But, if Trump isn't guilty, he really IS best to let Mueller finish his investigation. NOTHING will look better to both Trump's base and critics than being officially exonerated by a person who Trump has painted as being on a "witch hunt". It will keep the information in-check and not give others a reason to leak.
Killing the investigation mid-stream will leave many hands in possession of documents related to what was being investigated. And, everyone involved likely thinks their work is important enough to protect. More than likely, something will leak. And there may be too many people to track to stop it.
If the investigation is wrapped up however, it will decrease the value of any information the special counsel's office had gathered. It has already been reviewed and followed to it's natural course. No one will feel like their important work is being suppressed. Far more people internal to the case will feel satisfied, making it far less likely anyone will leak anything, or if they do that it will do damage.
The more spontaneously and judiciously the investigation is terminated, the more likely those close to the case will feel like the truth is being suppressed and the more likely it will be that something truly damaging is revealed to the public.
The court of public opinion doesn't require a fair trial. It just requires salacious stories.
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