HomePod already seems to be failing.
Well, it seems like my predictions worked out again. Seems like Apple's smart, but somehow not smart speaker is a flop.
I want to make a few points though.
Firstly, as always, the sales numbers are actually impressive in a certain light. The volume Apple is expected to sell is actually very impressive when you consider that they only have an expensive option. I don't know if those estimates will hold up to reality. But, 7 million expensive speakers? And Amazon is only expected to sell 29 million, most of which I'll wager will be the dot. Sure, it is a smaller number, but it is comparable and the Home Pod is 8 times the cost of the dot.
Now, these are only predictions. And I actually expect that they will sell less than that. I think that Apple missed the smart speaker craze and attacked the segment all wrong. And claiming a speaker equipped with Siri and smart home support isn't a competitor for Echo or Google Home is lunacy. No consumer with a brain will see it that way. As I've said in the past, if you're not in it for the smart speaker functionality you have a lot more choice for a quality speaker solution.
And I just want to shred that argument further. Lets drop the term "smart speaker" entirely and get a little more specific about what these devices are. What they are, plain and simple, are speakers with digital assistants embedded. All three of them. No amount of Apple Kool-Aid drinking can change that fact. They are all DIRECT competitors. They are all effectively the EXACT same class of device. The only thing which makes Apple's any different is that it is notably WORSE on the "smart" side of things.
If they WERE NOT competitors, they would not be fighting for the same sales dollars. And they are. The average person is NOT going to buy both a Google Home Max and a Home Pod. And that same person would be unlikely to buy Echo Plus. They MIGHT buy a dot or Home Mini in addition to a Home Pod, but only to cover gaps in functionality.
Anyway, enough of that rant.
Shitty products never stopped Apple from making massive sales. What is stopping them here is a combination of the fact that the buzz in smart speakers has died down and their product is both worse at the smart part and more expensive. And, as always, Apple is limited by their user base, which is largely driven by smart phones, an area where Android not only has more users, but also, they have an app for iOS meaning that while Google Home can snag Apple users, Home Pod can't really snag Android users.
The way Apple operates these days, they tend to never surrender to reason and kill a product quickly. And they also cave in to pressures to drop prices. I expect that we'll see another generation or two out of Home Pods before there is any chance Apple will kill them off. Obviously, in the interim the functionality will improve, and eventually they'll stop lying about it not being a smart speaker. And, they'll probably release a more affordable model. Though, I expect them to aim more for the full size GH and Echo, rather than the Dot and Mini. Apple still only really tends to go budget when they know the market will flock to them.
I want to make a few points though.
Firstly, as always, the sales numbers are actually impressive in a certain light. The volume Apple is expected to sell is actually very impressive when you consider that they only have an expensive option. I don't know if those estimates will hold up to reality. But, 7 million expensive speakers? And Amazon is only expected to sell 29 million, most of which I'll wager will be the dot. Sure, it is a smaller number, but it is comparable and the Home Pod is 8 times the cost of the dot.
Now, these are only predictions. And I actually expect that they will sell less than that. I think that Apple missed the smart speaker craze and attacked the segment all wrong. And claiming a speaker equipped with Siri and smart home support isn't a competitor for Echo or Google Home is lunacy. No consumer with a brain will see it that way. As I've said in the past, if you're not in it for the smart speaker functionality you have a lot more choice for a quality speaker solution.
And I just want to shred that argument further. Lets drop the term "smart speaker" entirely and get a little more specific about what these devices are. What they are, plain and simple, are speakers with digital assistants embedded. All three of them. No amount of Apple Kool-Aid drinking can change that fact. They are all DIRECT competitors. They are all effectively the EXACT same class of device. The only thing which makes Apple's any different is that it is notably WORSE on the "smart" side of things.
If they WERE NOT competitors, they would not be fighting for the same sales dollars. And they are. The average person is NOT going to buy both a Google Home Max and a Home Pod. And that same person would be unlikely to buy Echo Plus. They MIGHT buy a dot or Home Mini in addition to a Home Pod, but only to cover gaps in functionality.
Anyway, enough of that rant.
Shitty products never stopped Apple from making massive sales. What is stopping them here is a combination of the fact that the buzz in smart speakers has died down and their product is both worse at the smart part and more expensive. And, as always, Apple is limited by their user base, which is largely driven by smart phones, an area where Android not only has more users, but also, they have an app for iOS meaning that while Google Home can snag Apple users, Home Pod can't really snag Android users.
The way Apple operates these days, they tend to never surrender to reason and kill a product quickly. And they also cave in to pressures to drop prices. I expect that we'll see another generation or two out of Home Pods before there is any chance Apple will kill them off. Obviously, in the interim the functionality will improve, and eventually they'll stop lying about it not being a smart speaker. And, they'll probably release a more affordable model. Though, I expect them to aim more for the full size GH and Echo, rather than the Dot and Mini. Apple still only really tends to go budget when they know the market will flock to them.
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