Oh FFS, Doug Ford might win in Ontario!
I swear, this guy is just copying Trump everywhere he thinks he can get away with it. I had hoped he would stick with his more idiotic promises and then potentially lose with, hopefully, people seeing that many of his Trump-like plans don't work.
But, last night I read news that he is playing a Trump card I KNOW people are too stupid to risk voting against:
He promised to bring back manufacturing jobs.
I don't want this to be a super long tirade. So, I will try to make my points as brief as possible. Yes, the Wynne government sucks. Seems, mostly, that they are trying to do a mix of 2 types of things: good things poorly implemented, or stupid things people want to get votes. This is certainly not a good mix of things. But, it is more or less par for the course. In fact, in some ways it may actually be better than the average administration. Needless to say though, I understand that many people want Wynne and her government gone.
BUT. The only viable option... is worse. I don't even know if the NDP is running a candidate or if any other parties or independents are running. And that tells you all you need to know; Ford or Wynne will win. Voting otherwise, is pretty idiotic. It is EXACTLY the sort of thing which won Trump the presidency. People refused to vote for Hilary, but, since they didn't want to vote for Trump either, they voted on a third party with no momentum. And, that margin of votes on 3rd parties more than accounts for Trump's victories in MANY districts.
I'm not saying not to vote for who you want to vote for. In fact, I'm saying the exact opposite. Don't vote against candidates. Vote FOR candidates. If part of your reason for voting is expecting that the person you vote might actually win, then ONLY vote amongst candidates you think actually have a chance. My opinion here is that only Ford and Wynne have a chance. And that is going to drive a lot of what I say next. But, if you truly believe another candidate has a chance, or you truly believe in voting for another candidate regardless of whether or not they might win... more power to you.
Moving back to Ford and his promise to bring back manufacturing jobs. I have a TON I could say on this topic. But, I want to keep it to a few key points which I think make the most impact.
People are afraid of losing their jobs more than most things. And, it is probably the single highest valued point to most people if a campaign promise shines a light on your industry. In other words, making promises linked to people's careers plays on two of the most powerful emotions for a human being; fear and hope. This is I think Ford will win based on this comment. I don't think it would matter now if someone could prove to each and every one of these people, beyond a shadow of a doubt that Ford's plan would fail... I think many would STILL vote for him.
This is the cruelest card a politician can play.
So, in my opinion, why I think this is doomed?
Well, t probably he simplest thing to do is see if any politician has made this sort of promise and then evaluate A) whether or not they made good on their promise and B) whether or not it actually helped. Great news... Trump made the exact same promise. AND Trump has enacted many changes to those ends. But, guess what? It isn't really working there. And the US has a larger population. A much larger economy and since it happened at the federal level, far more means to make it a reality.
In short, in the country where such a plan was most likely to succeed and where it actually went forward, by all accounts it is failing. Even the standard bearer's of his promise, companies like Carrier, are shedding manufacturing jobs. The truth is hard, but simple and clear, governments, even at the federal level don't really have the power to bring these jobs back.
Why? Why can't the most powerful economy on the planet at present reverse these tides?
Well, that I think boils down to what these jobs are. They are unicorns. Manufacturing jobs are low skill jobs with high pay. They are the gravy train. They were never going to be sustainable.
I spent most of my youth growing up in Barrie, Ontario. About an hour outside of Toronto. I was driving to work one day listening to the news. The mayor was on answering questions. Our city was currently trying to win a bid to get either a University in the town or at the least expand the University offerings at our local College. We're within commuting distances of one of the most technologically advanced cities in Canada. And a woman comes on and asks "what are you going to do to bring more manufacturing jobs to Barrie?".
Barrie is a large city. We're commuting distance from the largest city in Canada. We have small air ports around and are not far from the largest air port in Canada. We have a college and ambitions to have a university. And people are interested in manufacturing? Of course they are. Like gold rushes or unicorns people want easy money. I spent much of my childhood thinking that when I grew up Barrie might be a great hub of technology. I don't know if it will hit that point now before I die.
Manufacturing jobs, it seems, are simply too alluring. Most of the residents which don't commute to Toronto are either in those industries or were or have ties to them. And while I believe everyone knows deep down that they are unicorns, they keep hoping that politicians can do something to keep the jobs or bring them back.
But, there is a kid in Thailand right now, with no education who would love to take your manufacturing job. And that person would be willing to do it for what amounts to a wage so small you'd consider it insulting to even be offered it. And that wage would make them happy. You have absolutely no chance to compete.
This isn't about us vs. them. I just chose Thailand at random. Depending on your industry it could be any of dozens or more countries.
It is about supply and demand. It is economics. And some economic factors are simply out of your control. In fact, most are. You can slap tariffs on imports and impose strict rules on local businesses. But, none of that stops foreign businesses from manufacturing or buying elsewhere. Tariffs don't make you more competitive on the global market. They make you less competitive. And could spark trade wars which could back fire massively.
If you basically close your borders to trade so that at least your government can control the economic factors... you'd still need to contend with automation, and improvements in efficiency (and the loss of whatever international sales you did have before).
Unless demand grows and grows at a pace which outstrips automation and process refinement, jobs will simply disappear. This is exactly what is happening in manufacturing all over the globe. The only countries seeing an increase in manufacturing are those where the labor is substantially cheaper than everywhere else. But even there, eventually, automation will replace those jobs or demand will dry up.
You can't have a high paying job, with low or no skill education/skill requirements AND have job security. You can pick any 2. But not all 3.
Anyone who tells you that they can break this formula is either lying or, worse, believes it and will ruin much more than the jobs they are trying to save.
On the topic of manufacturing jobs, you SHOULD be looking for a politician with a real plan to help retain jobs as much as possible (with a plan that actually makes sense detailed to voters), but who is much more focused on helping those who lose those jobs. Providing and money and services to either help them find new employment or train for new areas of work.
We're not failing at protecting these jobs. They are not protectable. We are failing at dealing with the fallout.
My opinion is that the party who comes closest to a platform which acknowledges this is the party most likely to hurt the industry the least. And based on the two, this time around, it is unfortunately not Doug Ford. But, between the hate for Wynne and what I believe are promises which can't be delivered on that Ford will win.
But, last night I read news that he is playing a Trump card I KNOW people are too stupid to risk voting against:
He promised to bring back manufacturing jobs.
I don't want this to be a super long tirade. So, I will try to make my points as brief as possible. Yes, the Wynne government sucks. Seems, mostly, that they are trying to do a mix of 2 types of things: good things poorly implemented, or stupid things people want to get votes. This is certainly not a good mix of things. But, it is more or less par for the course. In fact, in some ways it may actually be better than the average administration. Needless to say though, I understand that many people want Wynne and her government gone.
BUT. The only viable option... is worse. I don't even know if the NDP is running a candidate or if any other parties or independents are running. And that tells you all you need to know; Ford or Wynne will win. Voting otherwise, is pretty idiotic. It is EXACTLY the sort of thing which won Trump the presidency. People refused to vote for Hilary, but, since they didn't want to vote for Trump either, they voted on a third party with no momentum. And, that margin of votes on 3rd parties more than accounts for Trump's victories in MANY districts.
I'm not saying not to vote for who you want to vote for. In fact, I'm saying the exact opposite. Don't vote against candidates. Vote FOR candidates. If part of your reason for voting is expecting that the person you vote might actually win, then ONLY vote amongst candidates you think actually have a chance. My opinion here is that only Ford and Wynne have a chance. And that is going to drive a lot of what I say next. But, if you truly believe another candidate has a chance, or you truly believe in voting for another candidate regardless of whether or not they might win... more power to you.
Moving back to Ford and his promise to bring back manufacturing jobs. I have a TON I could say on this topic. But, I want to keep it to a few key points which I think make the most impact.
People are afraid of losing their jobs more than most things. And, it is probably the single highest valued point to most people if a campaign promise shines a light on your industry. In other words, making promises linked to people's careers plays on two of the most powerful emotions for a human being; fear and hope. This is I think Ford will win based on this comment. I don't think it would matter now if someone could prove to each and every one of these people, beyond a shadow of a doubt that Ford's plan would fail... I think many would STILL vote for him.
This is the cruelest card a politician can play.
So, in my opinion, why I think this is doomed?
Well, t probably he simplest thing to do is see if any politician has made this sort of promise and then evaluate A) whether or not they made good on their promise and B) whether or not it actually helped. Great news... Trump made the exact same promise. AND Trump has enacted many changes to those ends. But, guess what? It isn't really working there. And the US has a larger population. A much larger economy and since it happened at the federal level, far more means to make it a reality.
In short, in the country where such a plan was most likely to succeed and where it actually went forward, by all accounts it is failing. Even the standard bearer's of his promise, companies like Carrier, are shedding manufacturing jobs. The truth is hard, but simple and clear, governments, even at the federal level don't really have the power to bring these jobs back.
Why? Why can't the most powerful economy on the planet at present reverse these tides?
Well, that I think boils down to what these jobs are. They are unicorns. Manufacturing jobs are low skill jobs with high pay. They are the gravy train. They were never going to be sustainable.
I spent most of my youth growing up in Barrie, Ontario. About an hour outside of Toronto. I was driving to work one day listening to the news. The mayor was on answering questions. Our city was currently trying to win a bid to get either a University in the town or at the least expand the University offerings at our local College. We're within commuting distances of one of the most technologically advanced cities in Canada. And a woman comes on and asks "what are you going to do to bring more manufacturing jobs to Barrie?".
Barrie is a large city. We're commuting distance from the largest city in Canada. We have small air ports around and are not far from the largest air port in Canada. We have a college and ambitions to have a university. And people are interested in manufacturing? Of course they are. Like gold rushes or unicorns people want easy money. I spent much of my childhood thinking that when I grew up Barrie might be a great hub of technology. I don't know if it will hit that point now before I die.
Manufacturing jobs, it seems, are simply too alluring. Most of the residents which don't commute to Toronto are either in those industries or were or have ties to them. And while I believe everyone knows deep down that they are unicorns, they keep hoping that politicians can do something to keep the jobs or bring them back.
But, there is a kid in Thailand right now, with no education who would love to take your manufacturing job. And that person would be willing to do it for what amounts to a wage so small you'd consider it insulting to even be offered it. And that wage would make them happy. You have absolutely no chance to compete.
This isn't about us vs. them. I just chose Thailand at random. Depending on your industry it could be any of dozens or more countries.
It is about supply and demand. It is economics. And some economic factors are simply out of your control. In fact, most are. You can slap tariffs on imports and impose strict rules on local businesses. But, none of that stops foreign businesses from manufacturing or buying elsewhere. Tariffs don't make you more competitive on the global market. They make you less competitive. And could spark trade wars which could back fire massively.
If you basically close your borders to trade so that at least your government can control the economic factors... you'd still need to contend with automation, and improvements in efficiency (and the loss of whatever international sales you did have before).
Unless demand grows and grows at a pace which outstrips automation and process refinement, jobs will simply disappear. This is exactly what is happening in manufacturing all over the globe. The only countries seeing an increase in manufacturing are those where the labor is substantially cheaper than everywhere else. But even there, eventually, automation will replace those jobs or demand will dry up.
You can't have a high paying job, with low or no skill education/skill requirements AND have job security. You can pick any 2. But not all 3.
Anyone who tells you that they can break this formula is either lying or, worse, believes it and will ruin much more than the jobs they are trying to save.
On the topic of manufacturing jobs, you SHOULD be looking for a politician with a real plan to help retain jobs as much as possible (with a plan that actually makes sense detailed to voters), but who is much more focused on helping those who lose those jobs. Providing and money and services to either help them find new employment or train for new areas of work.
We're not failing at protecting these jobs. They are not protectable. We are failing at dealing with the fallout.
My opinion is that the party who comes closest to a platform which acknowledges this is the party most likely to hurt the industry the least. And based on the two, this time around, it is unfortunately not Doug Ford. But, between the hate for Wynne and what I believe are promises which can't be delivered on that Ford will win.
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