Oh that feeling of being right!

I went on a bit of a tirade after Trump decided to put all of his eggs in fossil fuels.

The basic points where,

• it doesn't matter if climate change is real, this is the direction the world is going in
• for that reason, renewables will eventually overtake fossil fuels

I read a report the other day which said a plant in Colorado is now producing solar energy at a cost per MW/hr cheaper than coal.

Numerous car companies, including Volkswagen most recently, have announced trending towards a full lineup of cars in the not so distant future that are either all electric, or at the worst all hybrid.

And then, this morning I read a report that it is estimated that renewables will generally be more viable from a cost position by 2020.

Basically, in the span of a little over a year it looks like everything I predicted is coming true. And sooo much faster than I ever anticipated. The skeptics had me convinced for a while that we were still decades away. And battery production may slow things down beyond these optimistic projections. But the point is simple... everything Trump spent to protect and save the fossil fuel industry was wasted. It just buys time. It won't be long before there isn't anyone to buy American oil and American energy produced by coal. Because it will be cheaper, not to mention seen as more responsible, to buy from countries producing clean energy.

As I said before, the US was already losing global dominance in virtually every industry. But, access to immense funding, public relations and working in the right direction really kelp the world at large from becoming aware of this. The US WAS a good ally and no one was going to pole the bear. When Trump took the reigns fully ignorant of this reality and thrashed those good relations, threatened to cut funding and redirect America's effort back into dying industries the rest of the world had nothing to lose. They collectively said "fuck it", and showed the US that they are standing alone.

I want to point out, there is another reason which people often overlook as to why there is so much momentum behind renewables. They are popular in impoverished and poor countries and they are becoming popular in rich countries. It is the poor countries which make things interesting though. Poor countries often need assistance. They would generally be the best candidate for the US to sell it's excess power to. But, poor countries often adopt renewable energy first. And the reason is, despite the upfront costs, the systems are often more robust and they consume resources which generally don't need to be harvested. When you can't afford to pay laborers and you can't guarantee a steady stream of resources to power your power plants, renewables are the only option.

As costs go down this will only accelerate. Rich countries, of course, can even when it is expensive to do so, afford to invest in renewables. They may often need to purchase power because rich countries often tax their grids with power hungry consumers and fluctuations in the grid need to be managed. But, while price is a concern in these transactions, so is optics. A country fueled by green energy will generally try and buy green sourced energy externally as well. It looks good politically, but it also pumps money into companies working with the technologies you favour yourself. Helping finance like minded companies helps finance research and development in those areas which can help you out later on in more tangible ways.

Similarly, we have the auto industry. American car makers make a lot of their money selling globally. When their efforts in combustion engines are rejected by the world and every foreign producer is kicking their asses in the EV segment, how will they bounce back? Truthfully, they probably won't. All of that legislation which would have forced them to meet certain EV related quotas would have undoubtedly given them the kick they needed to remain relevant. Now they will rest on their laurels as they produce vehicles which are, for the time being, more lucrative.

It is amazing to think, but I believe the single worst thing Trump has done for the American economy is a series of moves tied to climate change and green energy. These things will result in either growth or at the least stagnation in the short term, but will likely result in the biggest global, economic slump for the country long term. Tesla, which is having production issues is the only ray of hope for the country.