Tesla Semi Thoughts
Well, this is an interesting story. The Tesla Semi, in my opinion disappoints. About all it has going for it is hauling capabilities. It isn't currently a long haul solution. And, perhaps maybe more details are needed. I've read a few unique articles on the topic, and as automotive isn't my normal cup-o-tea I'm not super sure how reliable the sites I visited are. But I can draw a few conclusions... and I could be wrong. But I'm OK with that.
Firstly, I think most people were expecting something which could replace any semi. And that isn't what was unveiled. This thing has much too modest a range and no sleeper cabin. I'm not sure if the range is affected at all by load, but then, I imagine most fleet owners are interested in making the fewest number of trips so they generally aim to have these things filled. After all, reducing the fuel costs and maintenance still does nothing in terms of paying someone to drive the thing.
A few things which could change this would be if the trucks could legally drive unassisted and could stop and recharge themselves via wireless charging stations. To my knowledge though, both of those are not the case today. Which, in my opinion, pretty much limits shorter haul trips.
Now, a few things to consider, once a truck reaches its destination it can generally sit there for hours. If we assume that they can charge rapidly at their final destination then we are more concerned with one-way than 2 way mileage. So, the 300 to 500 mile range is respectable. But, that is, for the sake of practicality, the limit (without additional infrastructure).
Basically, other semis (according to a stat I just read and won't verify) can get over 1000 miles on a tank and they can sleep in them. So basically free lodging and a lot more flexibility on when and where to park thanks to the increased range and greater availability of fuel.
That being said, 300-500 miles is perfect for a lot of trips. It can cross state/province or even country borders easily on a single charge. And with 500 mile range should basically take a truck for a full 8 hour day. Again, 8 hours is nothing for long haul, but there are definitely a lot of drivers that operate within more normal working days and distances out there. And for them, I think it works fine.
Some things which it will be interesting to see are how quickly the batteries degrade and whether or not these really work out in the long run. Also aesthetics. And whether or not auto-pilot work even half decently here.
On the batteries front, the average Tesla driver isn't putting the mileage on their car the way a semi driver would. So, I'd be interested to see how long it is before these trucks start seeing significant losses in capacity. Tesla states one of these should pay for itself in 2 years. If the batteries can keep up that long and they meet Tesla's boasts on ROI I imagine they will indeed go on to be quite successful.
As for aesthetics... the only truckers I've ever talked don't strike me as the type of people who would be interested in Tesla's on either the interior or exterior. And, most of the truckers I know aren't long haul. And we already know it doesn't suit them long haul drivers all that well.
Then again, Wal-Mart and Loblaws have already promised to purchase a bunch of them. And, their drivers really don't get a say.
Lastly, auto-pilot. Again, no idea how it will hold up. But, it takes a lot longer to slow down a semi. Everything takes longer. This means any computer assistance needs to draw its conclusions even further in advance. And of course, if an accident does occur and auto-pilot is involved, the stakes could be much higher.
I'm interested to see how it all pans out. I don't think we're too far off a future where they not only fit in, but are borderline mandatory. But I think that we're still 3-10 years from there. We need autonomous driving to be approved, if not in general, then at least for large stretches of highway. We also need wireless charging to compliment that. I could definitely see the biggest players in the market buying up parking areas at various points along major highways and then just letting the semis drive themselves on the legal chunks of road while real, human drivers simply take the trucks for the final leg of the journey.
Firstly, I think most people were expecting something which could replace any semi. And that isn't what was unveiled. This thing has much too modest a range and no sleeper cabin. I'm not sure if the range is affected at all by load, but then, I imagine most fleet owners are interested in making the fewest number of trips so they generally aim to have these things filled. After all, reducing the fuel costs and maintenance still does nothing in terms of paying someone to drive the thing.
A few things which could change this would be if the trucks could legally drive unassisted and could stop and recharge themselves via wireless charging stations. To my knowledge though, both of those are not the case today. Which, in my opinion, pretty much limits shorter haul trips.
Now, a few things to consider, once a truck reaches its destination it can generally sit there for hours. If we assume that they can charge rapidly at their final destination then we are more concerned with one-way than 2 way mileage. So, the 300 to 500 mile range is respectable. But, that is, for the sake of practicality, the limit (without additional infrastructure).
Basically, other semis (according to a stat I just read and won't verify) can get over 1000 miles on a tank and they can sleep in them. So basically free lodging and a lot more flexibility on when and where to park thanks to the increased range and greater availability of fuel.
That being said, 300-500 miles is perfect for a lot of trips. It can cross state/province or even country borders easily on a single charge. And with 500 mile range should basically take a truck for a full 8 hour day. Again, 8 hours is nothing for long haul, but there are definitely a lot of drivers that operate within more normal working days and distances out there. And for them, I think it works fine.
Some things which it will be interesting to see are how quickly the batteries degrade and whether or not these really work out in the long run. Also aesthetics. And whether or not auto-pilot work even half decently here.
On the batteries front, the average Tesla driver isn't putting the mileage on their car the way a semi driver would. So, I'd be interested to see how long it is before these trucks start seeing significant losses in capacity. Tesla states one of these should pay for itself in 2 years. If the batteries can keep up that long and they meet Tesla's boasts on ROI I imagine they will indeed go on to be quite successful.
As for aesthetics... the only truckers I've ever talked don't strike me as the type of people who would be interested in Tesla's on either the interior or exterior. And, most of the truckers I know aren't long haul. And we already know it doesn't suit them long haul drivers all that well.
Then again, Wal-Mart and Loblaws have already promised to purchase a bunch of them. And, their drivers really don't get a say.
Lastly, auto-pilot. Again, no idea how it will hold up. But, it takes a lot longer to slow down a semi. Everything takes longer. This means any computer assistance needs to draw its conclusions even further in advance. And of course, if an accident does occur and auto-pilot is involved, the stakes could be much higher.
I'm interested to see how it all pans out. I don't think we're too far off a future where they not only fit in, but are borderline mandatory. But I think that we're still 3-10 years from there. We need autonomous driving to be approved, if not in general, then at least for large stretches of highway. We also need wireless charging to compliment that. I could definitely see the biggest players in the market buying up parking areas at various points along major highways and then just letting the semis drive themselves on the legal chunks of road while real, human drivers simply take the trucks for the final leg of the journey.
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