HoloLens Predictions pt.1 - CONFIRMED!
Oh man. Why am I not getting paid for my predictions?
Back in December I discussed what a theoretical timeline for HoloLens might look like. I stressed that it wasn't a consumer product and wasn't likely to be for some time yet. With both price point and functionality being major sticking points for consumers.
I suggested that, in it's current form, there was no value in simply reducing cost. The limited FoV would hurt consumer perception and they simply wouldn't be able to bring the cost down far enough. So, I suggested, the next move would likely be to leave the price more or less alone and improve the hardware for v2. And based on this, that sounds EXACTLY like what they have planned. Prices won't go up, but the focus is not on bringing them down. The focus for them is on comfort and immersion. Immersion, would obviously include the FoV amongst other things.
These are both moves which will make the unit more viable as a consumer device. But, by sacrificing cost, they are intentionally keeping this out of the mainstream. I expect that, like v1, this won't be sold in stores or through the same portion of their retail sites as other devices. He also makes the same speculation I do, that this technology really needs to get down to the $1000 mark to go truly mainstream.
Version 1 of this product sounds incredible. But, the next iteration, it sounds like, will make it even more appealing to the group they are currently targeting. Better immersion improves viability in any application and comfort is especially key, given that it is mainly a work assisting device and people may wear this for hours at a time.
Where this version sold "thousands", I expect the next version to sell "tens of thousands". Again, I don't think Microsoft is expecting huge numbers. Cost and target market will limit that. The improvements however should drive some v1 customers to upgrade and bring on more new customers. This little bit of momentum should help Microsoft further flesh out production for this device and perhaps even help to drive down prices for v3.
And, I still maintain my predictions for v3; functionally similar to v2, but with cost reductions which wouldn't bring it into the mainstream, but might make it more competitive with luxury consumer items, say $1500-2000 or maybe a bit more. Bringing the cost down by over a 1/3 may be a bit on the optimistic side, but there may be other forces helping drive the cost down, such as competing devices using similar components (like other 3D and AR headsets).
Back in December I discussed what a theoretical timeline for HoloLens might look like. I stressed that it wasn't a consumer product and wasn't likely to be for some time yet. With both price point and functionality being major sticking points for consumers.
I suggested that, in it's current form, there was no value in simply reducing cost. The limited FoV would hurt consumer perception and they simply wouldn't be able to bring the cost down far enough. So, I suggested, the next move would likely be to leave the price more or less alone and improve the hardware for v2. And based on this, that sounds EXACTLY like what they have planned. Prices won't go up, but the focus is not on bringing them down. The focus for them is on comfort and immersion. Immersion, would obviously include the FoV amongst other things.
These are both moves which will make the unit more viable as a consumer device. But, by sacrificing cost, they are intentionally keeping this out of the mainstream. I expect that, like v1, this won't be sold in stores or through the same portion of their retail sites as other devices. He also makes the same speculation I do, that this technology really needs to get down to the $1000 mark to go truly mainstream.
Version 1 of this product sounds incredible. But, the next iteration, it sounds like, will make it even more appealing to the group they are currently targeting. Better immersion improves viability in any application and comfort is especially key, given that it is mainly a work assisting device and people may wear this for hours at a time.
Where this version sold "thousands", I expect the next version to sell "tens of thousands". Again, I don't think Microsoft is expecting huge numbers. Cost and target market will limit that. The improvements however should drive some v1 customers to upgrade and bring on more new customers. This little bit of momentum should help Microsoft further flesh out production for this device and perhaps even help to drive down prices for v3.
And, I still maintain my predictions for v3; functionally similar to v2, but with cost reductions which wouldn't bring it into the mainstream, but might make it more competitive with luxury consumer items, say $1500-2000 or maybe a bit more. Bringing the cost down by over a 1/3 may be a bit on the optimistic side, but there may be other forces helping drive the cost down, such as competing devices using similar components (like other 3D and AR headsets).
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