Windows 10 on ARM and Surface Phone
Some days I feel like a freakin' prophet of the tech industry. I'll admit, the prediction wasn't 100% accurate. But it seems to be as close as it matters.
Basically, I shot down the notion of a Surface Phone this year, but posited that Microsoft would either exit mobile, or find a way to get full Windows 10 in some form or another into phones either the following year (2017) or the year after that.
The argument was fairly simple. Windows 10 Mobile was young and they had OEMs working with it. They needed to show some faith in that product and give some appearances of having given it a chance. That would require a bit of time. We also needed to actually have an x86 chip which would be viable in a phone, and that went tits up after Intel basically gave up on the phone market.
But Microsoft still needed to decide whether to bail entirely on phone or truly merge platforms. So, they appear to be getting around the lack of an Intel chip by working with ARM chip manufacturers (or Qualcomm at least) to bring x86 emulation to ARM with predictions that we will see such devices in... wait for it... 2017.
Personally, I don't think Microsoft will have a Surface Phone in that timeframe, or if it does, it will be closer to the end of 2017. The reasoning there is fairly simple... the emulation news is already public. When Microsoft does new hardware, they (like most in the industry) keep as much secret as long as possible. It wouldn't be the first time MS kept hush about working tightly with a chip manufacturer. It happened with the processors in Surface and the Windows Hello cameras and in many other cases I'm sure. The only reason to talk to it before unveiling your own hardware is if your partners will be delivering on it first.
The other reason, I think, is that they probably don't know what such a device should look like. The Surface lineup is there to champion new ideas and/or show the industry how it is done. Like the original Surface with the kickstand and keyboard cover, Microsoft needs to come up with something special. They are, after all, not going to be taken seriously for just releasing a premium phone. They can't claim to be the experts there.
Once they have the chipsets and emulation nailed down, I imagine they will spend a quarter or two deciding what a Surface Phone could do to revitalize their efforts in mobile. They may even wait on a second generation of SoC's with that emulation support.
Of course, they may just not release a Surface Phone at all. Since the Lumia 950 and XL failed to take off, they may just be happy to let OEMs take the risks for them. HP has made a nice phone. And I imagine a full Windows Phone may actually appeal to an even broader business audience. But, and this is a huge one... it totally depends on how that full Windows experience is delivered. Windows 10 on a phone sized touchscreen would be absolutely shit, and at the same time people would be infuriated by only having access to their x86 apps some of the time.
May some crazy new accessory will make desktop interaction on a phone viable. But, if they can't figure that out... I think MS might just be happy to sit back and watch this one fail to ever make a splash on phones.
Basically, I shot down the notion of a Surface Phone this year, but posited that Microsoft would either exit mobile, or find a way to get full Windows 10 in some form or another into phones either the following year (2017) or the year after that.
The argument was fairly simple. Windows 10 Mobile was young and they had OEMs working with it. They needed to show some faith in that product and give some appearances of having given it a chance. That would require a bit of time. We also needed to actually have an x86 chip which would be viable in a phone, and that went tits up after Intel basically gave up on the phone market.
But Microsoft still needed to decide whether to bail entirely on phone or truly merge platforms. So, they appear to be getting around the lack of an Intel chip by working with ARM chip manufacturers (or Qualcomm at least) to bring x86 emulation to ARM with predictions that we will see such devices in... wait for it... 2017.
Personally, I don't think Microsoft will have a Surface Phone in that timeframe, or if it does, it will be closer to the end of 2017. The reasoning there is fairly simple... the emulation news is already public. When Microsoft does new hardware, they (like most in the industry) keep as much secret as long as possible. It wouldn't be the first time MS kept hush about working tightly with a chip manufacturer. It happened with the processors in Surface and the Windows Hello cameras and in many other cases I'm sure. The only reason to talk to it before unveiling your own hardware is if your partners will be delivering on it first.
The other reason, I think, is that they probably don't know what such a device should look like. The Surface lineup is there to champion new ideas and/or show the industry how it is done. Like the original Surface with the kickstand and keyboard cover, Microsoft needs to come up with something special. They are, after all, not going to be taken seriously for just releasing a premium phone. They can't claim to be the experts there.
Once they have the chipsets and emulation nailed down, I imagine they will spend a quarter or two deciding what a Surface Phone could do to revitalize their efforts in mobile. They may even wait on a second generation of SoC's with that emulation support.
Of course, they may just not release a Surface Phone at all. Since the Lumia 950 and XL failed to take off, they may just be happy to let OEMs take the risks for them. HP has made a nice phone. And I imagine a full Windows Phone may actually appeal to an even broader business audience. But, and this is a huge one... it totally depends on how that full Windows experience is delivered. Windows 10 on a phone sized touchscreen would be absolutely shit, and at the same time people would be infuriated by only having access to their x86 apps some of the time.
May some crazy new accessory will make desktop interaction on a phone viable. But, if they can't figure that out... I think MS might just be happy to sit back and watch this one fail to ever make a splash on phones.
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