Trump and Brexit
I've written a lot on these topics, and only actually published a few of the blogs I wrote up. But, I had a thought today and felt it was a fair one to make. And no, it doesn't reflect my gut instincts at all or my general feelings. By, when I take a more pragmatic standpoint, it is where I land.
One of my major points with Brexit was that "remainers" took the stock markets as a sign that they were right. My rebuttal was that it couldn't possibly be. The stock markets cannot be reacting to the UK leaving the EU for one very simple reason. They haven't actually left it yet. Hell, they don't even know what leaving it looks, and every day it looks more and more like there might be a chance that they may not even leave after all.
DO NOT make the mistake of thinking it is the same as saying that the results in the stock market aren't "real" or don't impact people. I'm not a naïve fool. Absolutely... many people lost jobs, things have become more expensive for the people living and there are real and tangible impacts. THAT isn't my point. My point is that those effects are INDIRECT. There can be no DIRECT impact as a result of Brexit while the UK is still actually a part of the EU. You also can't blame any single element of what leaving the EU looks like. They don't even F***ing know what exactly leaving entails on any given level at present.
Stock markets and businesses hate uncertainty. No one knows what things will be like if/when the UK formally exits the EU. Investors are running with that uncertainty and dumping money everywhere else. Businesses have to assume the worst case scenario when planning on buying or setting up shop in the UK.
Trump is a similar problem. Read the heading of an article today which implied Trump could trigger a global economic boom. Sure, it is pure speculation. He could also crater all global economies. Or anything in between. Much as I want to say destruction is guaranteed... it isn't. Truthfully; no one knows what the effects of Trump being president will have on the economy. There really hasn't ever been an elected official anywhere quite like Trump and definitely not in a country that is an economic powerhouse.
We can speculate until the cows come home. But, as with Brexit, most fears are really founded in uncertainties. Hell, even if you can be certain of an outcome based on an action... Trump has back pedaled on a shit load of things. So, you certainly can't be certain he'll enact the things where you know what the impact would be. And you certainly can't know those decisions will play out in conjunction with the host of other things he may or may not do.
Before I end this... while this plays down my own fears... the point is bidirectional. We don't know that the sky is falling. But at the same time, we also don't know if it is. Those who voted for Trump may find his administration does indeed destroy the US economy. Or those who supported Clinton may end up overseeing the greatest growth the US has seen in decades. Or both sides may stand by while nothing of merit transpires at all.
Say what you will about maintaining the status quo, but at least with the status quo you might be able to make sensible predictions.
One of my major points with Brexit was that "remainers" took the stock markets as a sign that they were right. My rebuttal was that it couldn't possibly be. The stock markets cannot be reacting to the UK leaving the EU for one very simple reason. They haven't actually left it yet. Hell, they don't even know what leaving it looks, and every day it looks more and more like there might be a chance that they may not even leave after all.
DO NOT make the mistake of thinking it is the same as saying that the results in the stock market aren't "real" or don't impact people. I'm not a naïve fool. Absolutely... many people lost jobs, things have become more expensive for the people living and there are real and tangible impacts. THAT isn't my point. My point is that those effects are INDIRECT. There can be no DIRECT impact as a result of Brexit while the UK is still actually a part of the EU. You also can't blame any single element of what leaving the EU looks like. They don't even F***ing know what exactly leaving entails on any given level at present.
Stock markets and businesses hate uncertainty. No one knows what things will be like if/when the UK formally exits the EU. Investors are running with that uncertainty and dumping money everywhere else. Businesses have to assume the worst case scenario when planning on buying or setting up shop in the UK.
Trump is a similar problem. Read the heading of an article today which implied Trump could trigger a global economic boom. Sure, it is pure speculation. He could also crater all global economies. Or anything in between. Much as I want to say destruction is guaranteed... it isn't. Truthfully; no one knows what the effects of Trump being president will have on the economy. There really hasn't ever been an elected official anywhere quite like Trump and definitely not in a country that is an economic powerhouse.
We can speculate until the cows come home. But, as with Brexit, most fears are really founded in uncertainties. Hell, even if you can be certain of an outcome based on an action... Trump has back pedaled on a shit load of things. So, you certainly can't be certain he'll enact the things where you know what the impact would be. And you certainly can't know those decisions will play out in conjunction with the host of other things he may or may not do.
Before I end this... while this plays down my own fears... the point is bidirectional. We don't know that the sky is falling. But at the same time, we also don't know if it is. Those who voted for Trump may find his administration does indeed destroy the US economy. Or those who supported Clinton may end up overseeing the greatest growth the US has seen in decades. Or both sides may stand by while nothing of merit transpires at all.
Say what you will about maintaining the status quo, but at least with the status quo you might be able to make sensible predictions.
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