HoloLens v2 around the corner?
Been stumbling across a bit on this lately. And I think the answer is a solid "maybe", but I don't think it is what people are thinking/hoping.
Firstly, why do I think a second iteration might be in the works and perhaps not all that far away? We know Microsoft wants Augmented/Mixed Reality to be the next big thing, but there is no one else right now to carry that torch and the current HoloLens isn't that device. It is too expensive, underpowered, too small an FoV and has inadequate battery life. It has also been over a year since the original. BTW... on the FoV thing, I know most claim it is fine. And it probably is. Except consumers are whiny bitches. And even some reviewers have complained about it. Thus, it is insufficient.
The most obvious thing I can say is this; there is a high probability that MS was working on HoloLens v2 the very day they signed off on v1 (if not before that). Even if that product never sees the light of day. It shocks me to no end that people don't understand that this is exactly how large tech companies work. They plan, prototype, design and iterate. Over and over again. I had the same sort of shock when people seemed baffled that they were rumored to be prototyping an Xbox One without an optical drive. I bet you would shit your pants if you found out how many design prototypes and decisions Apple bins on a weekly basis.
So, yeah... they are, or have been, quite likely thinking about what a v2 of this device looks like. And, since no one else has a Windows based AR headset, they are probably also nearing a final design if they don't have one. If they drop the project at this stage it will die. And, frankly, there is no reason to drop it. They ARE selling units. Even at $3000 USD. And, plenty of them it seems. Just not, in general, to consumers.
Now. Why isn't it the device people are thinking/hoping? Well, most articles are pondering if this is FINALLY the consumer version. And THAT I doubt. VERY much. As mentioned above, from a consumer standpoint there are both hardware and cost challenges. They are also at the forefront of this tech. Iterations will yield incremental results. Most than likely, v2 will simply be a better device at the same price and aimed at the same markets as the first (basically, anything BUT consumer). We're probably 3-4 more iterations away from a product for the average consumer unless there are some major breakthroughs along the way.
A theoretical progression looks like this; v2 increases FoV a bit. To accommodate, CPU/GPU and RAM are upgraded along with battery. Price remains the same. Should enable more industries to adopt the tech and may lure upgrades or potential buyers of v1 who were on the fence. v3, in another 1-3 years is able to bring the price down. But still in the mid $2K range. v4 improves hardware and FoV again while maintaining new price. Specs are consumer viable, but cost still isn't. v5 finally sees cost reach around $2000. If no new entrants in this tech yet, but produce a cheaper headset as well, either a tethered experience or closer to v2 specs at a more affordable price. NOTE: This isn't prediction. PURELY hypothetical.
There is of course another indicator. The Windows 10 Creators Update. Sure, it is the perfect update for HoloLens... but they are also partnering with VR companies to bring affordable headsets to market. Since there is virtually no way MS could deliver an affordable and consumer friendly HoloLens in this same timeframe it would basically kill sales of an expensive consumer HoloLens.
In fact, the VR push is closely related to HoloLens. A lot of the tools work the same, along with representations of data. What this means is, if VR takes off, it will create the perfect ecosystem for AR. I think THIS is the hope with the creators update. Get 3D assets and apps into the Store. Let people get into VR an affordable price and start to see why AR is the next step.
Firstly, why do I think a second iteration might be in the works and perhaps not all that far away? We know Microsoft wants Augmented/Mixed Reality to be the next big thing, but there is no one else right now to carry that torch and the current HoloLens isn't that device. It is too expensive, underpowered, too small an FoV and has inadequate battery life. It has also been over a year since the original. BTW... on the FoV thing, I know most claim it is fine. And it probably is. Except consumers are whiny bitches. And even some reviewers have complained about it. Thus, it is insufficient.
The most obvious thing I can say is this; there is a high probability that MS was working on HoloLens v2 the very day they signed off on v1 (if not before that). Even if that product never sees the light of day. It shocks me to no end that people don't understand that this is exactly how large tech companies work. They plan, prototype, design and iterate. Over and over again. I had the same sort of shock when people seemed baffled that they were rumored to be prototyping an Xbox One without an optical drive. I bet you would shit your pants if you found out how many design prototypes and decisions Apple bins on a weekly basis.
So, yeah... they are, or have been, quite likely thinking about what a v2 of this device looks like. And, since no one else has a Windows based AR headset, they are probably also nearing a final design if they don't have one. If they drop the project at this stage it will die. And, frankly, there is no reason to drop it. They ARE selling units. Even at $3000 USD. And, plenty of them it seems. Just not, in general, to consumers.
Now. Why isn't it the device people are thinking/hoping? Well, most articles are pondering if this is FINALLY the consumer version. And THAT I doubt. VERY much. As mentioned above, from a consumer standpoint there are both hardware and cost challenges. They are also at the forefront of this tech. Iterations will yield incremental results. Most than likely, v2 will simply be a better device at the same price and aimed at the same markets as the first (basically, anything BUT consumer). We're probably 3-4 more iterations away from a product for the average consumer unless there are some major breakthroughs along the way.
A theoretical progression looks like this; v2 increases FoV a bit. To accommodate, CPU/GPU and RAM are upgraded along with battery. Price remains the same. Should enable more industries to adopt the tech and may lure upgrades or potential buyers of v1 who were on the fence. v3, in another 1-3 years is able to bring the price down. But still in the mid $2K range. v4 improves hardware and FoV again while maintaining new price. Specs are consumer viable, but cost still isn't. v5 finally sees cost reach around $2000. If no new entrants in this tech yet, but produce a cheaper headset as well, either a tethered experience or closer to v2 specs at a more affordable price. NOTE: This isn't prediction. PURELY hypothetical.
There is of course another indicator. The Windows 10 Creators Update. Sure, it is the perfect update for HoloLens... but they are also partnering with VR companies to bring affordable headsets to market. Since there is virtually no way MS could deliver an affordable and consumer friendly HoloLens in this same timeframe it would basically kill sales of an expensive consumer HoloLens.
In fact, the VR push is closely related to HoloLens. A lot of the tools work the same, along with representations of data. What this means is, if VR takes off, it will create the perfect ecosystem for AR. I think THIS is the hope with the creators update. Get 3D assets and apps into the Store. Let people get into VR an affordable price and start to see why AR is the next step.
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