Microsoft and Cyanogen
With Cyanogen seemingly exiting it's plans for an OS, it leaves a deal with Microsoft in jeopardy which many hailed as a Plan B for Windows Phone. Now many are wondering; if Plan B has failed, what is Plan C?
Guesses are all we can make. I don't believe anything has formally happened on either side. But we can make some predictions for sure.
I don't Cyanogen was ever more than a hedge bet for Microsoft. Microsoft could easily build their own Android variant, and could have done so several times over by now if they were even remotely inclined to do so. Instead, they make a deal with a small time company to get deeper integration? I think they were simply hoping for a "gateway drug" more than a "Windows on Android" thing. Think like the cheap Nokia phones that were Android based with a Windows Phone-ish veneer.
Every phone OEM and their grandma has hundreds of Android forks. Microsoft IS an operating systems company. The notion that they couldn't do it if they wanted is kind of silly.
So why lean on someone else at all? Probably, partly about optics. An MS built Android would show a greater lack of confidence in Windows. But it would also be an investment in an unproven approach to attracting users. And to what end? It might entice a few later to high end Windows Phone. But, as long as the apps are all Play Store, the money will stay with Android.
The other problem is UWP. This is probably not a huge problem. But it is a problem. If Microsoft throws their mobile chips into Android, then UWP devs don't even have a hopeful in the mobile race.
Microsoft can do a few things here:
Firstly, they can ramp up their Android presence. They have a number of apps including a launcher, lock screen, Groove and Office products to name a few. But, the launcher and lockscreen had nothing to do with either the WP or Windows teams. They are just cool garage products. A Microsoft made launcher and lock screen which brought a true Windows 10 experience to Android is definitely a key first move here. Then Cortana integration where possible. Integrate in a way that the idea can be resold to other OEMs.
Second would be UWP apps. This is a tricky one. With Xamarin they could build up to feature parity with UWP then make all UWP apps able to cross compile to a Xamarin app. Or perhaps even just cross compile directly to Android compatible Java or whatever they are moving to. It would undoubtedly take time to get that all in place. But the next question is... how to monetize? If the apps go through the Play Store, then Google makes the money. Separate app stores aren't super popular and I doubt Google would let Microsoft dump these apps there but reap the profits. Also, multiple app stores would mean devs could choose which they wanted, and would likely choose Play just due to the higher traffic.
My prediction; Microsoft won't do anything (aside from maybe suing Cyanogen if they broke their contract). I think the Cyanogen deal was probably a high risk, low cost gamble. I don't think they'll buy them and I don't think they'll try again. In fact, it was probably better for Microsoft that this failed. They don't need any more negative press in mobile if this initiative failed.
With everyone in the industry clamoring to find the "next big thing" they will likely just write off phone and split their efforts between HoloLens and watching the market so that next time they can get on the band wagon early next time. And HoloLens, at the moment, still seems like the number 1 contender for that next big thing.
If I were to make a suggestion, but one which won't get taken, Microsoft should do everything in their power to make Xamarin an invisible piece of UWP. Enable Windows developers to write apps for any platform.
I've long derided Google and Apple for having terrible ecosystems for developers compared to Microsoft. Problem is, devs don't care about UWP. If all they care about is iOS and Android, they'll stick with whatever makes that easiest for them. And in neither case does that require Windows. If UWP just worked out of the box to cross compile to iOS and Android I think it would make development for iOS and Android easier on Windows. And if UWP was the language of choice, it is hard to believe that the majority of devs would refuse to publish to Windows out of spite. If the investment is little to nothing, devs will take every revenue stream available. Period.
Guesses are all we can make. I don't believe anything has formally happened on either side. But we can make some predictions for sure.
I don't Cyanogen was ever more than a hedge bet for Microsoft. Microsoft could easily build their own Android variant, and could have done so several times over by now if they were even remotely inclined to do so. Instead, they make a deal with a small time company to get deeper integration? I think they were simply hoping for a "gateway drug" more than a "Windows on Android" thing. Think like the cheap Nokia phones that were Android based with a Windows Phone-ish veneer.
Every phone OEM and their grandma has hundreds of Android forks. Microsoft IS an operating systems company. The notion that they couldn't do it if they wanted is kind of silly.
So why lean on someone else at all? Probably, partly about optics. An MS built Android would show a greater lack of confidence in Windows. But it would also be an investment in an unproven approach to attracting users. And to what end? It might entice a few later to high end Windows Phone. But, as long as the apps are all Play Store, the money will stay with Android.
The other problem is UWP. This is probably not a huge problem. But it is a problem. If Microsoft throws their mobile chips into Android, then UWP devs don't even have a hopeful in the mobile race.
Microsoft can do a few things here:
Firstly, they can ramp up their Android presence. They have a number of apps including a launcher, lock screen, Groove and Office products to name a few. But, the launcher and lockscreen had nothing to do with either the WP or Windows teams. They are just cool garage products. A Microsoft made launcher and lock screen which brought a true Windows 10 experience to Android is definitely a key first move here. Then Cortana integration where possible. Integrate in a way that the idea can be resold to other OEMs.
Second would be UWP apps. This is a tricky one. With Xamarin they could build up to feature parity with UWP then make all UWP apps able to cross compile to a Xamarin app. Or perhaps even just cross compile directly to Android compatible Java or whatever they are moving to. It would undoubtedly take time to get that all in place. But the next question is... how to monetize? If the apps go through the Play Store, then Google makes the money. Separate app stores aren't super popular and I doubt Google would let Microsoft dump these apps there but reap the profits. Also, multiple app stores would mean devs could choose which they wanted, and would likely choose Play just due to the higher traffic.
My prediction; Microsoft won't do anything (aside from maybe suing Cyanogen if they broke their contract). I think the Cyanogen deal was probably a high risk, low cost gamble. I don't think they'll buy them and I don't think they'll try again. In fact, it was probably better for Microsoft that this failed. They don't need any more negative press in mobile if this initiative failed.
With everyone in the industry clamoring to find the "next big thing" they will likely just write off phone and split their efforts between HoloLens and watching the market so that next time they can get on the band wagon early next time. And HoloLens, at the moment, still seems like the number 1 contender for that next big thing.
If I were to make a suggestion, but one which won't get taken, Microsoft should do everything in their power to make Xamarin an invisible piece of UWP. Enable Windows developers to write apps for any platform.
I've long derided Google and Apple for having terrible ecosystems for developers compared to Microsoft. Problem is, devs don't care about UWP. If all they care about is iOS and Android, they'll stick with whatever makes that easiest for them. And in neither case does that require Windows. If UWP just worked out of the box to cross compile to iOS and Android I think it would make development for iOS and Android easier on Windows. And if UWP was the language of choice, it is hard to believe that the majority of devs would refuse to publish to Windows out of spite. If the investment is little to nothing, devs will take every revenue stream available. Period.
Comments
Post a Comment