Brexit consequences for ex-pats?
I wish I had written this prediction down. But as I told my wife; not much is likely to happen to ex-pats even if the UK ever actually gets around to formally leaving the EU. Or at least not in any short order. It is actually in the worst interest of the EU. Oddly, while probably terrible for British parliamentarians having them kicked out would actually benefit the UK more. And here is an article which seems to imply I may have been right.
Let's start with students. The EU arrangement made it very easy (and probably very tempting) for many UK citizens to go and receive an education in an EU member state. And the UK is a very sizable member of the EU. This means a rapid eviction of UK students would hurt the bottom lines of many post secondary schools in the EU zone. And, I'm not sure on this one, but it is also possible (and likely) that a UK student attending a school in Germany, for example, pays more out of pocket for tuition than a German student. Most countries these days subsidize tuition, but only for their own citizens. So, if they drop UK students, it could even hit the governments directly.
So... maybe offer all UK students currently registered at a recognized EU school a Student Visa for the duration of their studies? OK. But what about after they graduate? Or the other UK citizens living abroad?
On the graduation point... grads are a commodity. They are another resource I doubt the EU wants to lose.
As for others, there are two (broad) categories. Retirees and people who are neither students nor retirees. I don't have any numbers, buy you can wager that the lion's share of that middle group are working and paying taxes. Kicking them out of the country could both devastate the economy of EU member states and take away lots in tax money.
There are undoubtedly business owners and people in many key positions from the UK in jobs all over the EU. Why would the EU want that?
So what now? Offer work visas to everyone employed in the EU as well? That is probably an insurmountable mountain of work and would alienate UK workers who may then leave on principle, feeling like second class citizens.
Retirees? Who in their right mind would kick retirees out of a country? Ignoring the social outrage that would follow shipping the elderly in droves out... they also basically just pay taxes.
Basically, there are strong arguments for keeping every class of citizen living abroad where they are for the EU.
From the UK perspective, as entry into the country becomes more difficult, it would actually benefit the country to have as many ex-pats as possible moved back to offset the loss of incoming people (and increase in outgoing people). For all of the same reasons above. Many other EU citizens will leave the UK. EU students in the UK will drop. Immigration from EU states will slow.
Of course, the UK people won't see it that way. They'll want to be able to stay where they are. They will want the most amenable outcome for themselves. And they will push elected officials towards that and vote that way.
I think, right now, we're looking at a huge PR stunt on the part of the EU. "Thinking" about offering dual citizenship to students? I expect that to be extended, at the very least, to all students, and everyone with proof of residence in the EU. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised to see a grace period where ANY UK citizen can apply for dual EU-UK citizenship.
As the course of debates these days shifts to what the cost will be for the UK exiting the EU, this is a trump card the EU has to say "look, we're being generous, your people want to stay, we'll let them *evil wink*".
If the EU can survive this, they will basically win on all fronts, even if they let the UK off the hook for leaving.
Of course, there is a lot of speculation here. Technically, there is nothing binding about the UK referendum. And the margin was small enough to justify a second vote. Also, virtually everyone involved in the Brexit vote has jumped ship. There are oh so many ways they could still bail on leaving the EU.
There is also the potential fallout of the referendum, other EU members are talking more and more about leaving. If the EU falls apart it changes a lot of things.
Let's start with students. The EU arrangement made it very easy (and probably very tempting) for many UK citizens to go and receive an education in an EU member state. And the UK is a very sizable member of the EU. This means a rapid eviction of UK students would hurt the bottom lines of many post secondary schools in the EU zone. And, I'm not sure on this one, but it is also possible (and likely) that a UK student attending a school in Germany, for example, pays more out of pocket for tuition than a German student. Most countries these days subsidize tuition, but only for their own citizens. So, if they drop UK students, it could even hit the governments directly.
So... maybe offer all UK students currently registered at a recognized EU school a Student Visa for the duration of their studies? OK. But what about after they graduate? Or the other UK citizens living abroad?
On the graduation point... grads are a commodity. They are another resource I doubt the EU wants to lose.
As for others, there are two (broad) categories. Retirees and people who are neither students nor retirees. I don't have any numbers, buy you can wager that the lion's share of that middle group are working and paying taxes. Kicking them out of the country could both devastate the economy of EU member states and take away lots in tax money.
There are undoubtedly business owners and people in many key positions from the UK in jobs all over the EU. Why would the EU want that?
So what now? Offer work visas to everyone employed in the EU as well? That is probably an insurmountable mountain of work and would alienate UK workers who may then leave on principle, feeling like second class citizens.
Retirees? Who in their right mind would kick retirees out of a country? Ignoring the social outrage that would follow shipping the elderly in droves out... they also basically just pay taxes.
Basically, there are strong arguments for keeping every class of citizen living abroad where they are for the EU.
From the UK perspective, as entry into the country becomes more difficult, it would actually benefit the country to have as many ex-pats as possible moved back to offset the loss of incoming people (and increase in outgoing people). For all of the same reasons above. Many other EU citizens will leave the UK. EU students in the UK will drop. Immigration from EU states will slow.
Of course, the UK people won't see it that way. They'll want to be able to stay where they are. They will want the most amenable outcome for themselves. And they will push elected officials towards that and vote that way.
I think, right now, we're looking at a huge PR stunt on the part of the EU. "Thinking" about offering dual citizenship to students? I expect that to be extended, at the very least, to all students, and everyone with proof of residence in the EU. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised to see a grace period where ANY UK citizen can apply for dual EU-UK citizenship.
As the course of debates these days shifts to what the cost will be for the UK exiting the EU, this is a trump card the EU has to say "look, we're being generous, your people want to stay, we'll let them *evil wink*".
If the EU can survive this, they will basically win on all fronts, even if they let the UK off the hook for leaving.
Of course, there is a lot of speculation here. Technically, there is nothing binding about the UK referendum. And the margin was small enough to justify a second vote. Also, virtually everyone involved in the Brexit vote has jumped ship. There are oh so many ways they could still bail on leaving the EU.
There is also the potential fallout of the referendum, other EU members are talking more and more about leaving. If the EU falls apart it changes a lot of things.
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