Apple Sales Down
This was predictable. No one seems to want to accept that. There is a point of saturation. Doubly so when you're talking about premium goods. Apple's current sales are a "victim" of their earlier success. I say it that way because $40B is still a DAMN lot of money.
A lot of people in the market, as little as 2 years ago still, believed that smartphones could continue growing at these insane paces for years to come, if not indefinitely. After the PC era, I'm a little shocked anyone could be that naïve. And what is so spectacular is just how close the parallel between the two are.
We started with something which kicked off the era; Windows 95 and iPhone (I know Windows 95 isn't hardware, but it was the point in time at which hardware was cheap enough and operating systems were user friendly enough to spark the growth), pace of hardware increased dramatically in early years. While hardware increased at a healthy pace, sales grew at unsustainable rates. Unsustainable because the huge leaps in hardware meant accelerating the perception that your old device was obsolete so you not only got new sales, but also people upgrading before the end of the usable life of their old device. Over time, the hardware refreshes became less meaningful. Initially, this had little impact, people were so used to the upgrade cycles that they bought in anyway. But after a cycle or two of being underwhelmed, the upgrade cycle lengthened.
And that is where we are now. I would say that around the iPhone 4S is when people started losing interest. The 4S is the Windows XP of the mobile world. There are still people out there who used to buy a new iPhone ever refresh cycle who still have their 4S which they bought new. People still upgrade, and most still upgrade before their old device dies. But, now instead of rushing out every year, people are more likely to wait for 2 years or even more.
Phones crashed out faster than PCs for another reason. A key reason which made them so popular. Ease of use. These are simplistic devices compared to a PC. They don't do a ton. And that was the pitch which helped them take down the PC. "Who needs a PC? I can do most of what I need to on my phone". Well, when you set your consumers sights lower, you're bound to hit a point where even the most gullible stop seeing a reason to buy more powerful hardware. We're not there yet, but smartphone makers are still trying to push the specs back into the sphere of PC power. But, if there is a need to go there, it means you were in the first place; You do need the power a PC offered.
iPad is a doubly doomed device. Not as functional as a PC, not much more functional than a phone. It is really just ideal as a device to consume media on and to play games on to save your phone battery. Consumer upgrade cycles have dropped off the face of the earth. As these devices die, I expect that the average household will replace them. But not much more often than that. And households with multiple, will probably drop to one or two over time.
Mac sales plummeted when compared to the rest of the PC market. But then, I never really understood what even the gullible saw in Mac. They aren't pervasive in the workforce or schools. They aren't immune to viruses or malware. They aren't as software compatible as Windows machines. And they cost an unsightly amount of money.
With the Play Store moving to Chrome OS, I think, for the first time, there is a somewhat viable competitor to PCs. But, then again, maybe not. I think Chrome OS will hit the same problems as Windows 10. Desktop and laptop users don't like mobile apps with a keyboard and mouse and having a laptop with a touchscreen doesn't improve things much. In fact, in my experience with my touchscreen laptop, I rarely use the touchscreen at all. And when I do, it is normally in Win32 apps. Sometimes it is quicker to position the mouse somewhere with a tap than the trackpad, or closing apps, etc...
Back to sales. I don't have many predictions here. I think Apple's sales will continue to contract for another quarter at least, but probably for a 2 or 3 more. At some point, sales will normalize more or less I suspect. Apple's brand image kind of handcuffs them a bit when it comes to trying to address their problems. They could try and shake the luxury/premium image, but they would likely lose their most affluent customers that way. But, if they stay the course, they'll keep experiencing shrinking sales until they find out where the bottom is with their current model.
As with PC sales though, I don't honestly believe that there is anything they can do to change the tides in any of their existing markets. If Apple needs the volume of sales they had before, then they need to create a new and successful product line. I think this explains their sticking to their guns with Watch. They're still hoping smart watches are the next big thing, but they may have gotten the timing wrong with the first one.
A lot of people in the market, as little as 2 years ago still, believed that smartphones could continue growing at these insane paces for years to come, if not indefinitely. After the PC era, I'm a little shocked anyone could be that naïve. And what is so spectacular is just how close the parallel between the two are.
We started with something which kicked off the era; Windows 95 and iPhone (I know Windows 95 isn't hardware, but it was the point in time at which hardware was cheap enough and operating systems were user friendly enough to spark the growth), pace of hardware increased dramatically in early years. While hardware increased at a healthy pace, sales grew at unsustainable rates. Unsustainable because the huge leaps in hardware meant accelerating the perception that your old device was obsolete so you not only got new sales, but also people upgrading before the end of the usable life of their old device. Over time, the hardware refreshes became less meaningful. Initially, this had little impact, people were so used to the upgrade cycles that they bought in anyway. But after a cycle or two of being underwhelmed, the upgrade cycle lengthened.
And that is where we are now. I would say that around the iPhone 4S is when people started losing interest. The 4S is the Windows XP of the mobile world. There are still people out there who used to buy a new iPhone ever refresh cycle who still have their 4S which they bought new. People still upgrade, and most still upgrade before their old device dies. But, now instead of rushing out every year, people are more likely to wait for 2 years or even more.
Phones crashed out faster than PCs for another reason. A key reason which made them so popular. Ease of use. These are simplistic devices compared to a PC. They don't do a ton. And that was the pitch which helped them take down the PC. "Who needs a PC? I can do most of what I need to on my phone". Well, when you set your consumers sights lower, you're bound to hit a point where even the most gullible stop seeing a reason to buy more powerful hardware. We're not there yet, but smartphone makers are still trying to push the specs back into the sphere of PC power. But, if there is a need to go there, it means you were in the first place; You do need the power a PC offered.
iPad is a doubly doomed device. Not as functional as a PC, not much more functional than a phone. It is really just ideal as a device to consume media on and to play games on to save your phone battery. Consumer upgrade cycles have dropped off the face of the earth. As these devices die, I expect that the average household will replace them. But not much more often than that. And households with multiple, will probably drop to one or two over time.
Mac sales plummeted when compared to the rest of the PC market. But then, I never really understood what even the gullible saw in Mac. They aren't pervasive in the workforce or schools. They aren't immune to viruses or malware. They aren't as software compatible as Windows machines. And they cost an unsightly amount of money.
With the Play Store moving to Chrome OS, I think, for the first time, there is a somewhat viable competitor to PCs. But, then again, maybe not. I think Chrome OS will hit the same problems as Windows 10. Desktop and laptop users don't like mobile apps with a keyboard and mouse and having a laptop with a touchscreen doesn't improve things much. In fact, in my experience with my touchscreen laptop, I rarely use the touchscreen at all. And when I do, it is normally in Win32 apps. Sometimes it is quicker to position the mouse somewhere with a tap than the trackpad, or closing apps, etc...
Back to sales. I don't have many predictions here. I think Apple's sales will continue to contract for another quarter at least, but probably for a 2 or 3 more. At some point, sales will normalize more or less I suspect. Apple's brand image kind of handcuffs them a bit when it comes to trying to address their problems. They could try and shake the luxury/premium image, but they would likely lose their most affluent customers that way. But, if they stay the course, they'll keep experiencing shrinking sales until they find out where the bottom is with their current model.
As with PC sales though, I don't honestly believe that there is anything they can do to change the tides in any of their existing markets. If Apple needs the volume of sales they had before, then they need to create a new and successful product line. I think this explains their sticking to their guns with Watch. They're still hoping smart watches are the next big thing, but they may have gotten the timing wrong with the first one.
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