Is Windows Phone dead? [Revisited]
I switched from Windows Phone recently. And many people have as well. Usage stats are down and things are looking pretty grim.
So, is Windows Phone dead? No. Why? Well, they are still being sold and supported. Also, Microsoft has the money to maintain this for the reasonable future. Of course, by that logic, you can also argue that BlackBerry isn't dead.
Also, as I've pointed out in the past, dead is a relative term. Today, Windows 10 mobile is really not Windows 10. Even with Continuum, it is still not truly Windows 10. Just like Xbox isn't TRULY Windows 10. They are all effectively Windows 10 when it comes to UWP (well, for Xbox that will be true soon). But as things stand today they are different. And a "true" Windows 10 on phones could change things.
Firstly, I'm not advocating for running Win32 apps on a tiny screen. But, Microsoft keeps adding ways to enable Continuum, and running Win32 apps from a phone on a large screen makes a ton of sense. And with enough ways to cast a phone to a bigger screen and connect to peripherals the more that makes sense. Also, it means Windows Phone would never die unless/until Windows dies.
Personally, I think the current incarnation of Windows Phone will die. I think Microsoft is partly to blame for that. They let the market die by continuing to pump out budget devices when they should have been focused on true flagship phones. And they have true flagship phones now, but continue to fail in marketing. It is always possible that by some miracle the majority of people will wake up tomorrow and decide they've had enough of both iOS and Android and decide to look at whose in 3rd. But it is statistically beyond improbable.
From where I stand it seems like Microsoft knows this as well. They simply don't seem to be trying to do anything other than keep their commitment to phones alive aside from on paper. I've suggested potential reasons for this in past, with the most probable being seen as not immediately bailing on OEM's who helped with Windows Phone 10 devices and also to just keep whatever momentum isn't dead already alive until an x86/64 phone can be released.
I don't expect to see a push from Microsoft or from OEM's in devices or advertising though until such a switch is made. And, yes, I still see that as the logical conclusion for Windows Phone. They used UWP to try and draw the Windows Phone dev base to Windows 10 and also to help grow the UWP developer base. Eventually I expect them to replace Windows 10 Mobile with a true Windows 10 OS that supports full desktop functionality in Continuum mode. At which point all of those UWP efforts are automatically trickled back down to mobile.
Back to the original question. No, I don't think WP is dead. But I think it will be killed and replaced in the not too distant future (1-2 years). I don't expect anything before 2017 though for the aforementioned reasons for keeping it alive. Also for lack of a viable news on any Intel or AMD chip suitable for use in a real world phone as of yet.
So, is Windows Phone dead? No. Why? Well, they are still being sold and supported. Also, Microsoft has the money to maintain this for the reasonable future. Of course, by that logic, you can also argue that BlackBerry isn't dead.
Also, as I've pointed out in the past, dead is a relative term. Today, Windows 10 mobile is really not Windows 10. Even with Continuum, it is still not truly Windows 10. Just like Xbox isn't TRULY Windows 10. They are all effectively Windows 10 when it comes to UWP (well, for Xbox that will be true soon). But as things stand today they are different. And a "true" Windows 10 on phones could change things.
Firstly, I'm not advocating for running Win32 apps on a tiny screen. But, Microsoft keeps adding ways to enable Continuum, and running Win32 apps from a phone on a large screen makes a ton of sense. And with enough ways to cast a phone to a bigger screen and connect to peripherals the more that makes sense. Also, it means Windows Phone would never die unless/until Windows dies.
Personally, I think the current incarnation of Windows Phone will die. I think Microsoft is partly to blame for that. They let the market die by continuing to pump out budget devices when they should have been focused on true flagship phones. And they have true flagship phones now, but continue to fail in marketing. It is always possible that by some miracle the majority of people will wake up tomorrow and decide they've had enough of both iOS and Android and decide to look at whose in 3rd. But it is statistically beyond improbable.
From where I stand it seems like Microsoft knows this as well. They simply don't seem to be trying to do anything other than keep their commitment to phones alive aside from on paper. I've suggested potential reasons for this in past, with the most probable being seen as not immediately bailing on OEM's who helped with Windows Phone 10 devices and also to just keep whatever momentum isn't dead already alive until an x86/64 phone can be released.
I don't expect to see a push from Microsoft or from OEM's in devices or advertising though until such a switch is made. And, yes, I still see that as the logical conclusion for Windows Phone. They used UWP to try and draw the Windows Phone dev base to Windows 10 and also to help grow the UWP developer base. Eventually I expect them to replace Windows 10 Mobile with a true Windows 10 OS that supports full desktop functionality in Continuum mode. At which point all of those UWP efforts are automatically trickled back down to mobile.
Back to the original question. No, I don't think WP is dead. But I think it will be killed and replaced in the not too distant future (1-2 years). I don't expect anything before 2017 though for the aforementioned reasons for keeping it alive. Also for lack of a viable news on any Intel or AMD chip suitable for use in a real world phone as of yet.
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