Why the 9.7" iPad Pro will outsell the original and still fail to "beat" the Surface lineup.
The new iPad Pro (the 9.7" one) is simultaneously the smartest and dumbest thing I've ever seen Apple do.
Let's start with the obvious. The original iPad Pro is a failure. I don't care what metric you can find. This product release is the proof. This is Apple's admission that it failed. This device backtracks on near everything that the original iPad Pro aimed to do. The two biggest is that it takes the size out of contention as a true productivity device and gives up on raising the bar on pricing of iPad's.
Put another way, they slapped the Pro moniker on a device that isn't really a Pro device.
That sounds pretty bleak. So where is the silver lining that makes this a smart move? It has put an iPad Pro at a price point Apple knows people are willing to pay. Which means that this time next year Apple will be boasting about how the iPad Pro lineup has outsold the Surface Pro. In other words, they are trying to fabricate the truth.
Of course, many of the sales will simply be from people who would have bought a high end non-pro version of the iPad in the past. I'll wager most won't bother with the keyboard or pen either. And I highly doubt Apple will ever break out sales numbers on how many of the smaller vs. larger iPad Pro's were ever sold. They will probably keep quiet on keyboard and pen sales as well. After all, admitting that most of their iPad Pro sales came from the smaller model and even then that only a small percentage actually bought the accessories which actually make then "productivity" tablets would put the lie quickly to the fact that these devices are actually competing at all with Microsoft's.
So it sounds bleak, with a hint of brilliance now... but not stupid yet. The stupid part was in keeping the iPad Air. Apple is basically taking the shotgun approach to price points and products. Instead of creating a very small number of well defined products they are creating a random smattering of ill-defined products all over the spectrum. This is dumb because splitting production efforts across a broader range of products means that each device costs more to produce, which hurts the bottom line. Provides more lower cost alternatives, which hurts the bottom line and generates consumer confusion which hurts everything.
When there are clear differentiators between product lines it is easier to up sell a device. When those differences are blurry to non-existent, then it becomes easier for the consumer to decide to save their money. In other words, you're not only dealing with difficulty upselling, but the consumer may even down-sell themselves.
Basically, if Apple had killed the iPad Air lineup, then the iPad Pro would become the only option for the premium variant of their tablet. The fact that people buy the Air lineup today proves there is a market above the iPad Mini. There is simply no proof or reason to believe that there are 2 (or three if you also consider the larger Pro) markets of a viable size.
Most people who would have wanted an iPad Air (I suspect) would have been willing fork out a little more for the Pro rather than sacrificing specs to drop down a tier. This would have further helped their bogus iPad Pro sales padding, boosted their profit margins (most likely) and reduced production costs. Oh, not to mention advertising costs and everything else associated with continuing to run an additional product line.
The way I see it, Apple took a brilliant idea to boost their Pro lineup numbers and then gimped it by leaving a cheaper, compelling lineup to steal sales. The Pro only really makes sense for those who want the Apple branded accessories or who need 128GB+ storage. While this cheaper Pro model should boost sales, I think they'll be a far cry from their potential with the Air 2 getting in the way.
Let's start with the obvious. The original iPad Pro is a failure. I don't care what metric you can find. This product release is the proof. This is Apple's admission that it failed. This device backtracks on near everything that the original iPad Pro aimed to do. The two biggest is that it takes the size out of contention as a true productivity device and gives up on raising the bar on pricing of iPad's.
Put another way, they slapped the Pro moniker on a device that isn't really a Pro device.
That sounds pretty bleak. So where is the silver lining that makes this a smart move? It has put an iPad Pro at a price point Apple knows people are willing to pay. Which means that this time next year Apple will be boasting about how the iPad Pro lineup has outsold the Surface Pro. In other words, they are trying to fabricate the truth.
Of course, many of the sales will simply be from people who would have bought a high end non-pro version of the iPad in the past. I'll wager most won't bother with the keyboard or pen either. And I highly doubt Apple will ever break out sales numbers on how many of the smaller vs. larger iPad Pro's were ever sold. They will probably keep quiet on keyboard and pen sales as well. After all, admitting that most of their iPad Pro sales came from the smaller model and even then that only a small percentage actually bought the accessories which actually make then "productivity" tablets would put the lie quickly to the fact that these devices are actually competing at all with Microsoft's.
So it sounds bleak, with a hint of brilliance now... but not stupid yet. The stupid part was in keeping the iPad Air. Apple is basically taking the shotgun approach to price points and products. Instead of creating a very small number of well defined products they are creating a random smattering of ill-defined products all over the spectrum. This is dumb because splitting production efforts across a broader range of products means that each device costs more to produce, which hurts the bottom line. Provides more lower cost alternatives, which hurts the bottom line and generates consumer confusion which hurts everything.
When there are clear differentiators between product lines it is easier to up sell a device. When those differences are blurry to non-existent, then it becomes easier for the consumer to decide to save their money. In other words, you're not only dealing with difficulty upselling, but the consumer may even down-sell themselves.
Basically, if Apple had killed the iPad Air lineup, then the iPad Pro would become the only option for the premium variant of their tablet. The fact that people buy the Air lineup today proves there is a market above the iPad Mini. There is simply no proof or reason to believe that there are 2 (or three if you also consider the larger Pro) markets of a viable size.
Most people who would have wanted an iPad Air (I suspect) would have been willing fork out a little more for the Pro rather than sacrificing specs to drop down a tier. This would have further helped their bogus iPad Pro sales padding, boosted their profit margins (most likely) and reduced production costs. Oh, not to mention advertising costs and everything else associated with continuing to run an additional product line.
The way I see it, Apple took a brilliant idea to boost their Pro lineup numbers and then gimped it by leaving a cheaper, compelling lineup to steal sales. The Pro only really makes sense for those who want the Apple branded accessories or who need 128GB+ storage. While this cheaper Pro model should boost sales, I think they'll be a far cry from their potential with the Air 2 getting in the way.
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