Why Windows 10 growth isn't as stellar as it seems.
Keep in mind people... I am, more often than not, a Microsoft fan. So I'm not trying to spread doom and gloom here. I also don't think their growth is bad. In fact the current numbers (196 million) are staggeringly good, especially for half a year.
But, what Microsoft is aiming for is 1 billion users in 2-3 years. And the reason is simple. Microsoft is gambling that a larger user base will help them attract back developers from iOS and Android. 1 billion users will give them a number reasonably close to active iOS users. And thus should be compelling. Doing it quickly is also important. Over time Apple (and everyone else) are likely to increase their user bases as well. To make a compelling argument they need to get there as fast as possible. Honestly, not sure 1B in 3 years is fast enough.
And in that respect, if they maintain current growth they would reach their goal. But they won't. As many have pointed out, a huge share of that 200M users is upgrades, thanks to their rather aggressive push for people to upgrade. Annual PC sales are only in the 300M range and Microsoft isn't even effectively 100% of that market any more. Their device sales elsewhere aren't large enough to make a dent in this either. So, after the free upgrade period stops we should see those numbers drop.
Short of a miracle however, Microsoft won't hit 1 billion in 3 years. I figure that if computing trends remain the same (which they aren't really likely too anyway), they will end this year at closer to 300M, and add another roughly 200M each year after, which will put them at closer to 700M.
I think they might beat this by as much as 50M. But even that will only be 75% of their original goal.
At the moment, I don't see Apple computers meaningfully displacing PCs further and Android has no real horse in this race. Windows 10 Mobile is unlikely to regain traction unless/until they try an x86/64 full Windows variant. Xbox One still doesn't actually run UWP apps from the store at the moment and also doesn't account for more than single digit millions per year. HoloLens is still a new product and will occupy an even smaller market.
2 things would make 1B in 3 years possible; a PC renaissance or their mobile arm gaining traction. Most personal computing sales are in smart phones and likely to remain that way during that timespan. If something can happen to make Windows 10 based phones popular in the mainstream it should be fairly easy to get over that hurdle.
Again, I think the best way to do that would be to make a phone able to deliver the full Windows 10 experience (even if a dock [ala continuum] is required to get there). However, I still have a hard time believing that even if that approach can be popular, that it would take over in such a short period of time as to be a key factor in getting them to 1B devices. Changing what makes a smartphone valuable will likely be a slow revolution. Personally, I see a PC renaissance as more likely and still see that as highly improbable.
Lastly, not sure even reaching 1B super fast would make a difference. Many of the contemporary developers have lived exclusively in either the Android or iOS camps now. Moving to UWP is daunting from that standpoint. Also, many would still ask why do UWP over Win32. And it is a good question. I can still see many areas where I would choose the latter. And that defeats the purpose. Microsoft wants users and developers going through the Windows Store. So going Win32 doesn't help Microsoft.
But, what Microsoft is aiming for is 1 billion users in 2-3 years. And the reason is simple. Microsoft is gambling that a larger user base will help them attract back developers from iOS and Android. 1 billion users will give them a number reasonably close to active iOS users. And thus should be compelling. Doing it quickly is also important. Over time Apple (and everyone else) are likely to increase their user bases as well. To make a compelling argument they need to get there as fast as possible. Honestly, not sure 1B in 3 years is fast enough.
And in that respect, if they maintain current growth they would reach their goal. But they won't. As many have pointed out, a huge share of that 200M users is upgrades, thanks to their rather aggressive push for people to upgrade. Annual PC sales are only in the 300M range and Microsoft isn't even effectively 100% of that market any more. Their device sales elsewhere aren't large enough to make a dent in this either. So, after the free upgrade period stops we should see those numbers drop.
Short of a miracle however, Microsoft won't hit 1 billion in 3 years. I figure that if computing trends remain the same (which they aren't really likely too anyway), they will end this year at closer to 300M, and add another roughly 200M each year after, which will put them at closer to 700M.
I think they might beat this by as much as 50M. But even that will only be 75% of their original goal.
At the moment, I don't see Apple computers meaningfully displacing PCs further and Android has no real horse in this race. Windows 10 Mobile is unlikely to regain traction unless/until they try an x86/64 full Windows variant. Xbox One still doesn't actually run UWP apps from the store at the moment and also doesn't account for more than single digit millions per year. HoloLens is still a new product and will occupy an even smaller market.
2 things would make 1B in 3 years possible; a PC renaissance or their mobile arm gaining traction. Most personal computing sales are in smart phones and likely to remain that way during that timespan. If something can happen to make Windows 10 based phones popular in the mainstream it should be fairly easy to get over that hurdle.
Again, I think the best way to do that would be to make a phone able to deliver the full Windows 10 experience (even if a dock [ala continuum] is required to get there). However, I still have a hard time believing that even if that approach can be popular, that it would take over in such a short period of time as to be a key factor in getting them to 1B devices. Changing what makes a smartphone valuable will likely be a slow revolution. Personally, I see a PC renaissance as more likely and still see that as highly improbable.
Lastly, not sure even reaching 1B super fast would make a difference. Many of the contemporary developers have lived exclusively in either the Android or iOS camps now. Moving to UWP is daunting from that standpoint. Also, many would still ask why do UWP over Win32. And it is a good question. I can still see many areas where I would choose the latter. And that defeats the purpose. Microsoft wants users and developers going through the Windows Store. So going Win32 doesn't help Microsoft.
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