Nokia re-entering smartphones
Nokia is either the smartest or dumbest organization around. I haven't decided which yet. I think I'm largely leaning towards dumb, but time will tell one way or another.
Many moons ago Nokia decided to support Windows Phone. And, I argued in the past that this was actually a smart move. Many felt they should have gone with Android, and a small faction felt they should have stuck with their own OS.
Their own OS had already stagnated and had sales lower than Windows Phone. I think it safe to call not going that route safe and smart.
Not going Android was always the more questionable decision for most people. But Nokia's problem was twofold, no one was really making money selling Android handsets and Nokia had a huge workforce leftover from when they dominated the landscape. To this day, I think Nokia would have actually fared worse as an Android phone maker. But, I can't prove that.
I also think that the Windows Phone model was working, if slowly, while Nokia was at the helm. Windows Phone market share grew until around the time during which they were likely discussing having Microsoft acquire that division.
And, some additional bad decisions could be to blame as well. I think Windows Phone would have fared better with more OEM support outside of Nokia if Nokia didn't have a special relationship with Microsoft. And both failed spectacularly in marketing. Not just advertising, which was clearly a weak point, but also other avenues of marketing. Given the way carriers pushed Android and iPhone it feels like Nokia and Microsoft were missing something in their strategy.
But that all ended for Nokia when Microsoft bought their phone division. Nokia shed much of its dead weight. Re-entering the smartphone market after dropping all of their legacy overhead makes it much easier to turn a profit. They don't have an army of facilities and employees to support any more. They can build, outsource or utilize just the resources they need for the new endeavor.
But the question re-emerges, if they re-enter smartphones, what platform do they use? The Android market is more saturated now than it was when they decided against it last. Most notably, BlackBerry jumped on the bandwagon. And selling an Android phone resulted in less than 700k total device sales in the last quarter of 2015 with only 50k suspected to be Priv sales. Even if all 700k were Priv sales, that is TERRIBLE. Windows Phone sold 4.4 MILLION in the same quarter and that number is being mocked heavily for how low it is. And that IS a small number, but it is 6.25 * BlackBerry's total device sales and a whopping EIGHTY EIGHT TIMES their estimates Priv sales. Nearly 2 whole orders of magnitude.
Does Windows Phone really sound like such a bad idea now?
I mention this because BlackBerry, in my opinion, is in a very similar situation as Nokia. Both are "has-beens" trying to get back into the smartphone game. Both have and had loyal fans. And what is most interesting about those numbers is that, if the 50k is accurate, then their BB10 based devices are outselling their Android devices 14:1.
Yes, BlackBerry is making more money now. But that is likely much more about massive layoffs and corporate restructuring than it is about selling Android phones. Similarly, if Nokia is more successful (profit-wise) selling Android than it was with Windows Phone, it is more likely to be because they shed all of their employees and facilities than it is due to sales volume.
In fact, the proof (as far as BB is concerned) is to look at sales numbers. BB device sales have fallen YoY, so Android didn't make them any more popular. They even missed their target of 900k units. The only thing making them more money is reduced waste in terms of salaries and devices produced.
The lesson, I think, is that all of those people who yelled "If BlackBerry made an Android phone, I'd switch in a heartbeat" either had their bluff called or were the only buyers. Many said the same of Nokia and Android.
That being said, if Nokia makes Windows Phone again in the future, I don't see them choosing to be exclusive as they were in the past. While the perception is all wrong, I think investors would flee. So they will probably start with Android. And, like BB, if they are smart about scale, they might actually be able to be profitable on a small scale. I'd still love to see someone do a mainstream dual booting or multi-OS capable phone. Nokia might be the best fit for such a solution. It would at least give them a differentiating factor. In fact, even smarter might be open sourcing the drivers for any future hardware. Jolla and Ubuntu could use more hardware support, by making drivers freely available, similar OS teams may do the grunt work for them and make them the de-facto multi-platform hardware maker.
Many moons ago Nokia decided to support Windows Phone. And, I argued in the past that this was actually a smart move. Many felt they should have gone with Android, and a small faction felt they should have stuck with their own OS.
Their own OS had already stagnated and had sales lower than Windows Phone. I think it safe to call not going that route safe and smart.
Not going Android was always the more questionable decision for most people. But Nokia's problem was twofold, no one was really making money selling Android handsets and Nokia had a huge workforce leftover from when they dominated the landscape. To this day, I think Nokia would have actually fared worse as an Android phone maker. But, I can't prove that.
I also think that the Windows Phone model was working, if slowly, while Nokia was at the helm. Windows Phone market share grew until around the time during which they were likely discussing having Microsoft acquire that division.
And, some additional bad decisions could be to blame as well. I think Windows Phone would have fared better with more OEM support outside of Nokia if Nokia didn't have a special relationship with Microsoft. And both failed spectacularly in marketing. Not just advertising, which was clearly a weak point, but also other avenues of marketing. Given the way carriers pushed Android and iPhone it feels like Nokia and Microsoft were missing something in their strategy.
But that all ended for Nokia when Microsoft bought their phone division. Nokia shed much of its dead weight. Re-entering the smartphone market after dropping all of their legacy overhead makes it much easier to turn a profit. They don't have an army of facilities and employees to support any more. They can build, outsource or utilize just the resources they need for the new endeavor.
But the question re-emerges, if they re-enter smartphones, what platform do they use? The Android market is more saturated now than it was when they decided against it last. Most notably, BlackBerry jumped on the bandwagon. And selling an Android phone resulted in less than 700k total device sales in the last quarter of 2015 with only 50k suspected to be Priv sales. Even if all 700k were Priv sales, that is TERRIBLE. Windows Phone sold 4.4 MILLION in the same quarter and that number is being mocked heavily for how low it is. And that IS a small number, but it is 6.25 * BlackBerry's total device sales and a whopping EIGHTY EIGHT TIMES their estimates Priv sales. Nearly 2 whole orders of magnitude.
Does Windows Phone really sound like such a bad idea now?
I mention this because BlackBerry, in my opinion, is in a very similar situation as Nokia. Both are "has-beens" trying to get back into the smartphone game. Both have and had loyal fans. And what is most interesting about those numbers is that, if the 50k is accurate, then their BB10 based devices are outselling their Android devices 14:1.
Yes, BlackBerry is making more money now. But that is likely much more about massive layoffs and corporate restructuring than it is about selling Android phones. Similarly, if Nokia is more successful (profit-wise) selling Android than it was with Windows Phone, it is more likely to be because they shed all of their employees and facilities than it is due to sales volume.
In fact, the proof (as far as BB is concerned) is to look at sales numbers. BB device sales have fallen YoY, so Android didn't make them any more popular. They even missed their target of 900k units. The only thing making them more money is reduced waste in terms of salaries and devices produced.
The lesson, I think, is that all of those people who yelled "If BlackBerry made an Android phone, I'd switch in a heartbeat" either had their bluff called or were the only buyers. Many said the same of Nokia and Android.
That being said, if Nokia makes Windows Phone again in the future, I don't see them choosing to be exclusive as they were in the past. While the perception is all wrong, I think investors would flee. So they will probably start with Android. And, like BB, if they are smart about scale, they might actually be able to be profitable on a small scale. I'd still love to see someone do a mainstream dual booting or multi-OS capable phone. Nokia might be the best fit for such a solution. It would at least give them a differentiating factor. In fact, even smarter might be open sourcing the drivers for any future hardware. Jolla and Ubuntu could use more hardware support, by making drivers freely available, similar OS teams may do the grunt work for them and make them the de-facto multi-platform hardware maker.
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