Hololens = strategic failure
I no longer think it matters what MS does; Hololens is doomed.
This is just my opinion. But in my mind they have managed to screw absolutely everything up on this one, and I no longer think there is any recovering it.
Lets go back to the beginning, shall we? How long ago was the Hololens unveiling? About a year? And how far are we from a consumer version? The truth is we don't even know. Dev kits haven't even shipped yet as far as I'm aware. The problem is this, Hololens was a shocker, and in a good way, but that doesn't matter. If it was poorly received it would have been better for MS, but could ultimately have meant people didn't care for the concept. Instead, it rocked. And all of a sudden AR companies came flying out of the woodworks and competitors started buying up companies. Google may even beat them to a consumer product.
Suffice it to say, that shouldn't have happened. You don't unveil a revolutionary new product years ahead of availability. That is outright idiocy. You either give people years to mock it, or years to beat you to market or years to deliver a better product. This is NOT a hindsight is 20/20 thing. I said this a year ago as well. I could see it just as clearly at the time as I can now. All they achieved by showing something that awesome was shedding light on the industry and proving there is interest. And now startups are getting recognition and Google is investing and Apple may even be investing as well.
This should have been unveiled THIS year, when they're finally near to being able to ship dev units at the latest. I hope someone has been or gets fired over the timing there. This is the sort of tech that without a major company backing it would have just been a gimmick. They made the category real, and they did so when they weren't ready to deliver on it.
If that is where this ended that would just be bad, but not a total failure. Recently Microsoft also confirmed some of the reasons for the limited field of view. Namely battery life and the units processing power. Both of which can be resolved with tethering.
Tethering is often viewed as a bad thing. But it really depends on the device. Hololens is already much too big, heavy and "stand-out-ish" to be something you would wear outside. Most users aren't even going to use it to traverse rooms in a house. Realistically, the average user will use it at a desk or in a single room. While it was smart to not make it a consumer release given the $3k price tag and limited FoV, it was even dumber to limit the FoV for those reasons given the initial audience. To me, this shows a lack of confidence that a significantly FoV will be achievable any time soon.
The current unit will go to developers and partners and industries who have a use for it. As a developer I would want a fully immersive experience that I can then limit to simulate real-world use later. I would never leave my desk unless testing the unit. So even a really short tether wouldn't be inconvenient. Most design based scenarios as well would be done in a single room, again, around a desk. Maybe a larger one, but still not roving.
People balk at the 2.5 hour battery life. But again, look at the size of the thing. You're not going to be comfortable walking around for 2.5 hours with that on your head to begin with. And, even situations where roaming with it would be desirable, would it really be all that inconvenient if it were plugged in most of the time? I don't seriously think so. Sure, there are edge cases. But, as a general rule... I'm doubting it.
Which brings me back to my prior hopes that were dashed. Microsoft should have either enabled a wider FoV when tethered or provided multiple models.
$3k is a lot for a consumer, but industries seriously interested in the tech would be willing to pay more, even for a tethered version with a full FoV or for those edge cases a unit with a back pack or something to either increase battery life or FoV untethered.
By the time this hits mainsteam, its most likely that some other startup or some other competitor will have ruined the perception of these devices in the market. Which is a shame, because I think Microsoft's solution is clearly better than any of the others I've seen and I think that pairing it with Windows 10 the way they have is another big piece of what makes it a killed solution.
This is just my opinion. But in my mind they have managed to screw absolutely everything up on this one, and I no longer think there is any recovering it.
Lets go back to the beginning, shall we? How long ago was the Hololens unveiling? About a year? And how far are we from a consumer version? The truth is we don't even know. Dev kits haven't even shipped yet as far as I'm aware. The problem is this, Hololens was a shocker, and in a good way, but that doesn't matter. If it was poorly received it would have been better for MS, but could ultimately have meant people didn't care for the concept. Instead, it rocked. And all of a sudden AR companies came flying out of the woodworks and competitors started buying up companies. Google may even beat them to a consumer product.
Suffice it to say, that shouldn't have happened. You don't unveil a revolutionary new product years ahead of availability. That is outright idiocy. You either give people years to mock it, or years to beat you to market or years to deliver a better product. This is NOT a hindsight is 20/20 thing. I said this a year ago as well. I could see it just as clearly at the time as I can now. All they achieved by showing something that awesome was shedding light on the industry and proving there is interest. And now startups are getting recognition and Google is investing and Apple may even be investing as well.
This should have been unveiled THIS year, when they're finally near to being able to ship dev units at the latest. I hope someone has been or gets fired over the timing there. This is the sort of tech that without a major company backing it would have just been a gimmick. They made the category real, and they did so when they weren't ready to deliver on it.
If that is where this ended that would just be bad, but not a total failure. Recently Microsoft also confirmed some of the reasons for the limited field of view. Namely battery life and the units processing power. Both of which can be resolved with tethering.
Tethering is often viewed as a bad thing. But it really depends on the device. Hololens is already much too big, heavy and "stand-out-ish" to be something you would wear outside. Most users aren't even going to use it to traverse rooms in a house. Realistically, the average user will use it at a desk or in a single room. While it was smart to not make it a consumer release given the $3k price tag and limited FoV, it was even dumber to limit the FoV for those reasons given the initial audience. To me, this shows a lack of confidence that a significantly FoV will be achievable any time soon.
The current unit will go to developers and partners and industries who have a use for it. As a developer I would want a fully immersive experience that I can then limit to simulate real-world use later. I would never leave my desk unless testing the unit. So even a really short tether wouldn't be inconvenient. Most design based scenarios as well would be done in a single room, again, around a desk. Maybe a larger one, but still not roving.
People balk at the 2.5 hour battery life. But again, look at the size of the thing. You're not going to be comfortable walking around for 2.5 hours with that on your head to begin with. And, even situations where roaming with it would be desirable, would it really be all that inconvenient if it were plugged in most of the time? I don't seriously think so. Sure, there are edge cases. But, as a general rule... I'm doubting it.
Which brings me back to my prior hopes that were dashed. Microsoft should have either enabled a wider FoV when tethered or provided multiple models.
$3k is a lot for a consumer, but industries seriously interested in the tech would be willing to pay more, even for a tethered version with a full FoV or for those edge cases a unit with a back pack or something to either increase battery life or FoV untethered.
By the time this hits mainsteam, its most likely that some other startup or some other competitor will have ruined the perception of these devices in the market. Which is a shame, because I think Microsoft's solution is clearly better than any of the others I've seen and I think that pairing it with Windows 10 the way they have is another big piece of what makes it a killed solution.
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