Windows 10 momentum slowing down?
You can tell it has been a boring couple of weeks in tech when I haven't posted anything in this long and what I break the silence with is a topic like this. But anyway, read this nonsense.
I'm not sure what these people are smoking. YES momentum is slowing down. That is what happens to EVERY single OS after it stops being brand new. In fact, this isn't even new. Month over month momentum has been slowing EVERY SINGLE MONTH since launch. Which is literally the exact same as EVERY OTHER OS ON THE PLANET (technical exception may be OSs with "unnatural" releases like Android where carriers and OEMs may delay the immediate roll out the OS).
This isn't news. This is just what happens. And this certainly isn't me siding with Microsoft. The same thing happens to Apple (and adjusting for odd release cycles, Android).
If anything else were true, it would be indicative of something seriously wrong with the operating system or the perception thereof. Unless there is a good reason not to take an upgrade, most people will take it as soon as possible. After that, there is a trickle of holdouts on the upgrades and new users. Overtime the holdouts trickling in dry up and you wind up with just new activations.
Now, I may have over generalized initially. Once you get to the point where your sole source of adoption is effectively just new activations and the initial hype is gone, things can get a little more wonky. New hardware, seasonal demand, etc... will start to show an impact in numbers, especially over a period as small as a month, but that doesn't generally happen within the first year, especially when there is a free upgrade available and there was a sizable user base before. Even as the holdouts on the upgrade slowdown, they still make up a large enough portion of activations that other factors don't can't alter the trend substantially.
In the case of Windows 10, the upgrade effect is even more pronounced. With Windows 8 being largely hated AND Windows 10 being the first time free upgrades have been so widely available you can expect upgrades to continue to drive the growth numbers until Microsoft pulls the cord on them.
There is, of course, another problem with the calculations beyond that. Measuring growth in terms of month over month rather than in terms of absolute volume would mean that even sustained growth or modest improvements in growth can be seen as slowing momentum. If I have 1 million users and add another 1 million users the next month, my growth is 100%. If I add 1.5 million the month after that, my growth is just 75% despite the fact that I added 50% more in total than I had the previous month.
Stating that such a scenario is losing momentum is 100% accurate. To maintain momentum, the business would need to double every month. That scenario is a tad on the ludicrous side and the numbers at play for MS are not that high. But the heart of the matter still applies. Indefinite sustained positive momentum is impossible and the higher the underlying numbers and the higher the prior momentum the more unlikely it is to be maintained. These growth numbers may be low, but the absolute numbers are over 100 million which is very high.
I'm not sure what these people are smoking. YES momentum is slowing down. That is what happens to EVERY single OS after it stops being brand new. In fact, this isn't even new. Month over month momentum has been slowing EVERY SINGLE MONTH since launch. Which is literally the exact same as EVERY OTHER OS ON THE PLANET (technical exception may be OSs with "unnatural" releases like Android where carriers and OEMs may delay the immediate roll out the OS).
This isn't news. This is just what happens. And this certainly isn't me siding with Microsoft. The same thing happens to Apple (and adjusting for odd release cycles, Android).
If anything else were true, it would be indicative of something seriously wrong with the operating system or the perception thereof. Unless there is a good reason not to take an upgrade, most people will take it as soon as possible. After that, there is a trickle of holdouts on the upgrades and new users. Overtime the holdouts trickling in dry up and you wind up with just new activations.
Now, I may have over generalized initially. Once you get to the point where your sole source of adoption is effectively just new activations and the initial hype is gone, things can get a little more wonky. New hardware, seasonal demand, etc... will start to show an impact in numbers, especially over a period as small as a month, but that doesn't generally happen within the first year, especially when there is a free upgrade available and there was a sizable user base before. Even as the holdouts on the upgrade slowdown, they still make up a large enough portion of activations that other factors don't can't alter the trend substantially.
In the case of Windows 10, the upgrade effect is even more pronounced. With Windows 8 being largely hated AND Windows 10 being the first time free upgrades have been so widely available you can expect upgrades to continue to drive the growth numbers until Microsoft pulls the cord on them.
There is, of course, another problem with the calculations beyond that. Measuring growth in terms of month over month rather than in terms of absolute volume would mean that even sustained growth or modest improvements in growth can be seen as slowing momentum. If I have 1 million users and add another 1 million users the next month, my growth is 100%. If I add 1.5 million the month after that, my growth is just 75% despite the fact that I added 50% more in total than I had the previous month.
Stating that such a scenario is losing momentum is 100% accurate. To maintain momentum, the business would need to double every month. That scenario is a tad on the ludicrous side and the numbers at play for MS are not that high. But the heart of the matter still applies. Indefinite sustained positive momentum is impossible and the higher the underlying numbers and the higher the prior momentum the more unlikely it is to be maintained. These growth numbers may be low, but the absolute numbers are over 100 million which is very high.
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